Cross-Eyeing: Reversal on EUR/JPY at PWH and 50.0% Fib? – Orders Cancelled

Orders cancelled: 2011-07-28 02:09

EUR/JPY 1-hour chart

My EUR/JPY trade turned out almost exactly like my AUD/CAD short, with price turning around and dipping right before it triggered my short order.

For a while, it seemed like the euro was on track to hitting the PWH, where I was looking to short. It was actually pretty resilient for the first two days of the week.

But then things took a turn for the worse yesterday, and EUR/JPY erased all its gains from earlier on. Sucks!

The euro, like most of the other major currencies, was hit with a case of risk aversion yesterday as U.S. debt developments bogged down risk sentiment.

Making matters worse, it had to deal with problems of its own. The euro zone’s debt issues came under the spotlight again yesterday when S&P downgraded Greece’s debt rating from CCC to CC with a negative outlook.

Since it looks like we’re seeing a shift in risk sentiment (and because price is waaaay below my entry price already), I’m cancelling my orders to short at the PWH.

In the meantime, I’ll be looking for day trades to take since we’ve got less than 48 hours left before the weekend arrives. If you have any suggestions, hook a brother up! Peace!

Trade Idea: 2011-07-26 03:12

EUR/JPY 1-hour chart

Late last week, European leaders gave Greece another bailout and agreed to establish a permanent solution to the euro zone’s debt problems.

This gave the euro a temporary boost, allowing EUR/JPY to climb up the charts. But see, that’s the key word – temporary! I just don’t see the euro staging another rally this week!

First, while Greece got a bailout, it is also defaulting on some of its debt. Don’t let the media fool you – a default is a default is a default!!! I think that markets will soon realize that Greece ain’t the only bad egg in the basket, and they won’t be as eager to hold risky assets.

Secondly, as my man Pipcrawler pointed out, EUR/USD is hitting a major falling trend line. This could prove to be a major roadblock for the euro, and it could keep it from rallying across the board.

I also really like this trade based on the technical setup. The previous week high lines up with the 50% Fibonacci level, which could mean a lot of sellers are looking to jump in in that area. In addition, based on some statistics that I take, the PWH and top WATR seem to hold very well during the last week of every month.

I’ve set a relatively tight stop of about 75 pips, putting my stop at around 114.30. I think that if price rallies that much higher from the PWH, it would indicate that the euro is just too beastly and its time to call it quits. I’m aiming for previous lows near 111.00, but in this environment, I also have to be quick to adjust.

Here’s the gameplan:

Short EUR/JPY at 113.55, stop loss at 114.30, take profit at 111.00.

I’m feeling pretty confident about this trade, I just hope that I get triggered this time around! Of course, nothing is set in stone, and that’s why it’s important to ALWAYS keep your risk in check. I’m going to be risking 1% on this trade so that even if I take a hit, it won’t hurt too much.

That’s all for now my rabid fans. Will you join me on this trade? Or do you think EUR/JPY is headed for new highs? Lemme know in the comments below or send me a message on Twitter or on Facebook!

Before I head off, a quick shout out to the NFL for FINALLY resolving their lockout. Now, it’s the NBA’s turn! Let’s not lose a season, fellas!

  • fxtrader

    It is not the last we shall hear of the Euro and the US ‘s debt problems. I havent tried Pipcrawler….. shall look into it thanks