Swing Trade: AUD/USD’s Uptrend – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2012-11-15 01:31

After AUD/USD hit the 1.0450 resistance level, the pair dropped like a rock yesterday! As it turns out, risk was off during the recent trading sessions as the U.K. released a downbeat BOE inflation report while the U.S. printed disappointing retail sales figures.

Thank goodness I moved my stops to my highest entry price (1.0415) earlier during the day. The pair sold off so heavily that it broke below the rising trend line on the 4-hour chart and even below the 1.0400 handle!

AUD/USD Trade Closed

Since I was able to make the necessary trade adjustments, I was able to avoid a loss on my account. I managed to end up in breakeven for one position and with a tiny profit on my other position.

Here’s the breakdown:

1st long position (market entry at 1.0415): 0 pips / 0.00%
2nd long position (long order at 1.0400): 20 pips / 0.01%

Sure, it’s such a small gain that I normally wouldn’t be so giddy about but I’m still gonna give myself a pat on the back for being able to manage my risk properly. In retrospect, I probably should’ve just closed around 1.0450 for a much bigger win, but I’m not too disappointed with how I played this one.

Got any tips on how I could win my next trade? Don’t be shy to share them with me!

Trade Update: 2012-11-14 07:49

The Aussie has finally picked up steam!

After what seems like gazillion years, the Aussie has finally jumped from its support at 1.0400.

Early in the week Australia printed weak home loans and NAB business confidence numbers. Fortunately for my trade, China also released strong trade balance figures, which suggested that demand for commodities would soon pick up for the world’s second largest economy.

AUD/USD Trade Update

It might have also helped that Australia showed a strong Westpac consumer sentiment report a few hours ago. The report lifted AUD/USD all the way to its previous resistance near the 1.0450 handle.

Will AUD/USD finally break above its previous highs? I’m not risking my entire trade just to find out! Just as I had planned, I moved my stop losses to break even when the pair reached the 1.0450. I still have my fingers crossed that it would reach my profit targets at 1.0500!

What do you think? Should I take profits now or wait for price to hit my original targets? Thanks a lot for your comments and advice by the way!

Trade Update: 2012-11-10 05:49
Both my long orders have gotten triggered for this long AUD/USD trade! As some of you mentioned in your comments below, I probably should’ve been much more patient and entered my entire trade at 1.0400. You see, I got a little bit frazzled when price started rallying after the release of Australia’s strong jobs report and I was worried I would miss the entire move.

AUD/USD Trend Update

Price did dip a little below 1.0400 during the U.S. session as strong U.S. trade balance and better than expected jobless claims triggered a dollar rally. However, price soon jumped back above the support level prior to the release of Chinese data in today’s Asian session.

I’m not sure whether I should keep my trade open over the weekend or not, considering how a lot could happen right before Monday’s open. On the other hand, Big Pippin did point out a nice bullish divergence on the 1-hour time frame and I’m inclined to hold on.

What do you guys think? Do you think I should keep this open or should I take my profits and run? I’m up by roughly 20 pips from my second entry level and at breakeven on my market entry level. I’d love to hear your thoughts!

Trade Idea: 2012-11-08 02:09

I’m back and ready to earn some pips, fellas!

This week I’m looking at AUD/USD’s tempting uptrend. The pair has been rising since early October when it encountered support at the 1.0200 handle, and right now it looks like price is about to test the rising trend line.

I’m not waiting for a trend line retest though. I have already bought at market with 0.25% of my account and placed another 0.25% at the 1.0400 major psychological handle. If you noticed, the area is also near the 50% Fib on the 4-hour chart as well as the previous week high level that we have marked in the Comdoll Trading Kit.

AUD/USD Trend Play

On the fundamental side, the reports are also lining up in favor of the Aussie. Australia has been spreading good vibes since the start of the week when it printed better-than-expected retail sales and trade balance results. Then, the RBA kept the comdoll bulls’ party going by keeping its interest rates steady at 3.25% when many were expecting a rate cut.

It also helps that the Land Down Under showed stronger-than-expected employment numbers a couple of hours ago. Unemployment rate is still at 5.4% while 10,700 workers found jobs in October. If you recall, analysts were expecting the jobless rate to tick higher to 5.5% and only add 200 jobs for the month.

And then there’s the potential good news from China. With China releasing its inflation, industrial production, fixed asset investment, and trade numbers during the once-in-a decade government change, I’m betting my pips that we’ll see positive reports from the country later this week.

Here’s my plan for this trade:

Bought AUD/USD at market with 0.25% of my account and placed another 0.25% order at 1.0400. I placed my stop loss below the trend line and 1.0350 handle at 1.0340 and I’m planning to move my stop loss to break even once price reaches 1.0450. I placed my initial profit target at 1.0500.

What do you think of this plan? Don’t forget to read our risk disclosure if you’re planning on trading with me! Of course, your opinions and questions are always more than welcome.

Happy Pip takes over Google+!
@Happy_pip Twitter
Playing with Comdolls Facebook page
Happy Pip Comdoll Corners
MeetPips.com Page

Have fun and good luck trading this week, friends!

Happy time

Other Popular Articles:

What is the STA strategy? AUD/USD Trade Q3 2012 in Review Comdoll Trading Kit (November 5-9, 2012)

  • InnerCircleTrader

    A Dollar never lost is better than a Dollar never earned! Capital Preservation is paramount and kudos!

    GLGT ;)

  • shyam

    excellent!

  • hazwan18

    good

  • Bitterseatrader

    Hey, looks like the trend line is holding and we just hit the 1.045 level.

    • happypip

      Yep! Just adjusted my stop to entry for a risk free open trade and a small profit locked in!

      • Bitterseatrader

        Good move Happy Pip, the Aussie has now broken the 1.04 support.

  • Bitterseatrader

    Actually, I am liking the kiwi for the swing trade! I think the AUD has less steam and will cap out at the 1.06 level.

    • happypip

      Nice chart. NZD/USD’s 4-hour chart is sporting dojis right now. It’s right at the bottom weekly ATR too. Hmm tempting…

  • Bitterseatrader

    Fundamentally I think its a sound trade Happy Pip. I rode the employment data all the way to 1.0479 yesterday. But I am waiting for the AUD/USD to touch the trend line. + we have some interesting data coming out of Europe very soon which could have the AUD heading south in the short term.

    Good luck though :)

    • happypip

      Congrats on your AUD jobs trade! What levels are you looking at for a trend line retest? :)

      • Bitterseatrader

        I would buy on a supportive candle in the 1.0350 range. But I am feeling conservative :)

  • Tsvetomir Traykov

    There is a strong support level at 1.0395 that will be hard for the price to brake to touch ne trend line.

    • happypip

      Good point. Which time frame are you looking at btw? Looks like price still hasn’t broken below 1.0395. Fingers crossed! :)

      • Tsvetomir Traykov

        Right now i’m looking at 1H. :)
        Be careful with your TP, i’ve noticed falling trend line on the daily chart. Maybe 1.047 will be better :?

  • kioniboy

    i would have waited for the trend line retest at least

    • happypip

      Hi! Thanks for checking out my trade! What’s a good level to enter if I were to wait for a trend line retest? The nearest significant level that I’m seeing is at 1.0400. :)

      • kioniboy

        looking at the charts about 1.0380 which is also the 200 daily ma but you’re right in that 1.0400 is a strong level for quite a few reasons but if you look at the daily it printed a pin bar type candle as well yesterday so would watch out but good luck hope you are right.

        • happypip

          Good call on a lower entry! Were you able to jump in? Or are you staying out because of the signals on the daily?

          • kioniboy

            staying out of aussie but looked at nzdusd and the weekly looks defiantely bearish so waiting for a push up next week to sell

  • maxipeace

    Hello, could you please explain what “…with 0.25% of my account” means. I don’t think I get it right. Is it the size of your position? Or is it the margin? Say, you’ve got 10 000 USD deposit then what the size of you trade would be?

    • happypip

      Sorry for the late response! It simply means 0.25% of my account balance. So if I have 10 000 USD, I’m gonna risk 25 USD. Hope that helps!