Short USD/CAD – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2007-05-18 21:15

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Hello my friends! It looks like our trade reached full profitability as positive Canadian Retail Sales rallied Loonie even further. Congrats to those who made some pips! Yaaaay!!

1st Half: +65 pips
2nd Half: +105 pips
Total: +170 pips

Trade Update: 2007-05-18 17:23

Hello! So far, our short market entry at 1.1030 has faired well as the pair made a run all the way down to 1.0940 before retraceing. We closed half of our position at 1.0965 to lock in some profits and we adjusted our stop on the remaining position to breakeven.

Ahead of the Canadian Retail Sales data at 8:30 am EDT and the US Consumer Sentiment data at 10:00 am EDT, let’s adjust our stop one more time to lock in more profits.

Closed half postion at 1.0965 to lock in +65 pips.

Adjust stop on remain position from breakeven (1.1030) to 1.0985.

Good luck my friends :)

Trade Update: 2007-05-16 19:32

We saw a retracement in USD/CAD downtrend after positive Industrial Production and and Capacity Utilization data came out positive, along with Housing starts. Also, crude oil inventories came in lower than last week at 1.0M barrels which may have helped the dollar rise.

The pair rose as high as the 50% Fibonacci retracement level before turning lower and currently trading just below the 38% Fib line. We will enter short here:

Short USD/CAD at Market (1.1030), stop at 1.1090, pt1 at 1.0965, pt2 at 1.0925

Please remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Adjust your position sizing accordingly.

Stay tuned for a possible update tomorrow morning with CAD CPI out tomorrow at 7:00 am EDT and Wholesale Sales data out at 8:30 am EDT.

Good luck :)

Trade Idea: 2007-05-15 22:32

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Hey Hey! :) The Loonie made an awesome run against the Greenback from 1.1166 to break the 1.10 barrier – will it stay under or will USD rally? Well, US consumer inflation data came in pretty much inline with core inline and headline slightly weaker at 0.4% versus 0.5%. TICS data came in higher than last month’s number (67.6B versus 58.1B), but less that what the market was expecting. We saw good numbers out of Canada today with New Motor Vehicle Sales and Manufacturing Shipments both beating expectations.

It looks like the inflation data was viewed by the market as Dollar bearish as the Greenback sold off. Will the Fed continue to focus on inflation after today’s data? We’ll have to wait and see, but with gas prices at all time highs we may have to wait until next month’s reports to be sure.

So, what does all of this boil down to? I am definitely bearish on the pair and I think we will see it go down further. We have US Housing Starts and Building Permits tomorrow in which I think we’ll see weak data continue in the US housing market. We also have Canadian International Securities Transactions out at the same time as the the housing data, and with the strength of the economy, M&A activity, and commodities in the recent months, we may see a stronger than expected number.

I am looking to short below the previous low and if there is a retracement I will post a new update.

Short USD/CAD at 1.0930, stop at 1.0960, pt1 at 1.0900, pt2 at 1.0870

Please remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any trade. Please adjust your position sizes accordingly. :)

  • owliepip

    Good work you have, keep it up.
    Whats your opinion on the unaccounted space on USD/CAD pair between 1028 to 1009? I have a feeling that before the end of tomorrow it will be covered up on a retracement. I might be wrong, just an observation I made.

  • owliepip

    Good work you have, keep it up.
    Whats your opinion on the unaccounted space on USD/CAD pair between 1028 to 1009? I have a feeling that before the end of tomorrow it will be covered up on a retracement. I might be wrong, just an observation I made.

  • happypip

    Hey Owliepip, I’m not sure what you mean by “unaccounted space.” Could you please elaborate?

  • happypip

    Hey Owliepip, I’m not sure what you mean by “unaccounted space.” Could you please elaborate?

  • owliepip

    I meant a skip in candle stick continuation. I was wrong about the observation (invalid observation as of today). Seems like the fundamentals are singing a better tune for the C$.

  • owliepip

    I meant a skip in candle stick continuation. I was wrong about the observation (invalid observation as of today). Seems like the fundamentals are singing a better tune for the C$.