NZD/USD Retracement: Day Trade Idea – Orders Cancelled

Orders Cancelled: 2012-05-03 02:12
I had a strong feeling that NZD/USD would plummet all the way down to the .8000 handle yesterday… and it did! Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to dive in as the pair didn’t reach my entry level at .8100.

You see, I had been waiting for the pair to retrace, hoping that I could get in at a good price. However, the bearish sentiment for the Kiwi was way too strong that NZD/USD simply crashed below the .8050 minor psychological level as soon as the London session kicked off.

NZD/USD Orders Cancelled

A part of me wishes that I took a breakout setup instead but remembering how I got heartbroken from several fakeouts in the past kept me from jumping in at market and catching at least a part of the Kiwi drop.

I’ll be cancelling my orders now, not just because I already missed the boat, but also because I clearly stated in my trade plan that I will close all orders prior to the NFP release. Don’t I get extra brownie points for being extra disciplined?

How about you? Were you able to catch this drop?

Trade Idea: 2012-05-03 01:45

After almost losing my NZD/USD range trade last week, I’m determined to end up with a winner this time!

You see, a falling trend line on NZD/USD’s 1-hour chart first caught my attention like a pair of animal-print pumps on sale. Then, I put up my Fibonacci lines before I realized that a potential test of the trend line would also line up with a 50% Fib retracement!

Stochastic is still in the oversold region though, so the pair still has room to reach my potential entry level at .8100. The question is, will the pair even reach my entry? Remember that the comdolls took a hit yesterday after the RBA cut its rates by 0.50% and word got around that the ECB might turn dovish in its interest rate statement today at 12:45 pm GMT.

NZD/USD Trend Line

Of course, it doesn’t help the Kiwi that New Zealand’s employment numbers were more disappointing than my latest attempt at baking salmon!

The country’s unemployment rate surprisingly rose to 6.7% in the first quarter when analysts were expecting a 6.3% figure. Not only that, the employment change report also disappointed with only a 0.4% growth against expectations of a 0.5% rise.

In any case, here’s what I plan to do:

Short at .8100, place stop above the Fibs, WATR, and trendline (at .8140) and then place my first PT at .8050.

Since the NFP is only a few hours away, I decided that I will close my orders or open positions just hours before the NFP release tomorrow. A girl can’t be too careful, right?

I’ll be risking 0.5% of my account on this day trade as always. If you’re thinking of joining me on this one, check out our risk disclosure first.

What do you think of my plans? As always, any advice would be much appreciated!

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Let’s start this month strong, buddies!

Happy time

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  • raja

    I’m long @.8015 with Sl .7850 & TP .8110 on the basis of bullish butterfly pattern on H4.

  • Zurdix

    Iam going long @ 0.8000  -  S/L = 0.7960 – T/P = 0.8100
    Let’s see how it rolls…

    • Zurdix

      I just got stopped. 40 pips to the bin :(
      I’ll keep an eye for a reversal.

  • IlanAF

    WHY dont you work with volume?stoc and macd are little bit late acording the market.dont you think?

  • swanforex

    Hmm….I’ve always been the opposite with your views on the Kiwi/Buck…..but you’ve always been right….lol…..looking at the daily I see it trading in a range the past couple months….I’m hoping it’ll re-test the top of the range……any predictions for the NFP tomorrow?

    • happypip

      It does look like this pair is hanging around the bottom of the larger range on the daily but with weak fundamentals from New Zealand, the range just might break. Let’s see what happens!

      As for the NFP, my gut feeling tells me we might see another weak reading and that fundamentals could drive the U.S. dollar especially with QE3 still on the table. But that’s just me. Maybe you should ask Forex Gump what he foresees for the NFP release!

      Thanks for checking out my blog regularly and best of luck in your trades :)