Is USDCAD Revving Up for Another Move Down? – Stopped at Breakeven

Stopped at Breakeven: 2010-06-03 22:23

PoD Chart

Yikes! My trade only went my way 30 pips, but was a good thing I moved my stop to my entry point! I would have stopped out if I didn’t play it tight!

My trade got triggered early in the Asian session, but price action was pretty choppy, as price just kept going up and down. When the pair set a new low early in the European session, I thought I was good to go. As I stated in my plan, I played it tight and moved my stop to 1.0365 once I was up 30 pips. Sadly, after I moved my stop, the pair burst through the 1.0400 handle, which stopped me out in the process.

Total: 0 pips / 0.0%

While I’m a little disappointed that I couldn’t take any profit on this trade, I’m just happy that I followed my trading plan. In the long run, as long as I stick to my rules, I believe I will come out ahead!

Trade Idea: 2010-06-02 23:23

PoD Chart

Oh my! Is that a juicy bearish pennant I see forming on the one-hour chart? Why yes it is!

We saw a pretty big down move on the USDCAD last night, but with the US market going to sleep, price action has consolidated the past few hours to form a bearish pennant. My sixth sense is telling me that we’re going to see a breakout soon!

I’m looking to short the pair below the yesterday’s low, setting my sell order at 1.0365. With all the employment data coming out from the US today and tomorrow, I don’t want to have any positions open so I will keep this as a day trade. That being said, I’ve set a tight stop, placing it just above today’s high. I’m only going to have one take profit point at 1.0310, which is the lower bound daily ATR. It is also just above the 1.0300 psychological handle, so we could see some support there.

Fundamentally, the Loonie is looking really strong because the Bank of Canada just hiked their benchmark rate from 0.25% to 0.50% the other day. This makes Canada the first G7 nation to raise rates, which could set Loonie bulls on the loose!

Meanwhile, the US looks like it has a full schedule today. With the ADP non-farm employment change report, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and factory orders data on deck, there are plenty of economic catalysts that could push the USDCAD pair out of consolidation.

The ADP non-farm employment report could show that hiring in May was more than twice as much as the 32,000 increase in jobs seen last April. Since this is usually considered a preview of the upcoming non-farm payrolls report, a stronger than expected figure could trigger a wave of risk appetite and push the USDCAD even lower.

With the US non-farm payrolls report due on Friday, I’ll be sure to close my trade before the release in order to avoid extra volatility. I wouldn’t want those nasty spikes to ruin my day trade!

I’m going to play this pretty tight, so once I’m up about 30 pips, I’ll probably move my stop loss to my entry price. Trading has been pretty choppy this week and I don’t want to get well.. Chopped up!

Here’s my recipe for success:

Short USDCAD at 1.0365, stop at 1.0410, take profit at 1.0310

Thanks for reading my blog! You can check out my past trades over at MeetPips.com!

8 comments

  1. foricks

    Looks like we broke even on this one, but I really liked your trade for a few reasons:
    1. You saw the opportunity – It was a classic pennant trade that a babypips 2nd grader (support and resistance class)could see.
    2. You set your entry – a definitive breakdown outside of the pennant that would confirm your expectations.
    3. You set stops/limits – Risk to Reward of 45/55 under 50%
    4. You had an exit strategy before you went in – Pull the ripcord after ~30 pips to break even.
    5. You stuck to your rules – wait for breakout, risk to reward ok, moving stops, etc.

    These are fundamental steps in trading. While this was probably a break even trade for you, you have shown us the PROCESS of trading and staying above water in Forex. For that I thank you!

    Reply
  2. foricks

    Looks like we broke even on this one, but I really liked your trade for a few reasons:
    1. You saw the opportunity – It was a classic pennant trade that a babypips 2nd grader (support and resistance class)could see.
    2. You set your entry – a definitive breakdown outside of the pennant that would confirm your expectations.
    3. You set stops/limits – Risk to Reward of 45/55 under 50%
    4. You had an exit strategy before you went in – Pull the ripcord after ~30 pips to break even.
    5. You stuck to your rules – wait for breakout, risk to reward ok, moving stops, etc.

    These are fundamental steps in trading. While this was probably a break even trade for you, you have shown us the PROCESS of trading and staying above water in Forex. For that I thank you!

    Reply
  3. Happy Piphappypip

    So true pipsprof. The doldrums of summer has come, and it looks like we’re seeing quite a bit of ranging.

    Reply
  4. Happy Piphappypip

    So true pipsprof. The doldrums of summer has come, and it looks like we’re seeing quite a bit of ranging.

    Reply

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