Eyes on NZD/USD: First Win of the Year!

Profit Taken! 2012-02-14 03:35
Wheeee! After a few canceled orders and one losing trade, I finally get my first winning trade of the year!

Since my broker didn’t allow me to cancel my trades over the weekend, I decided to just watch my position after it got triggered on a strong rally during the early Asian session.

NZD/USD Trade Update2

On the 1-hour chart, I noticed that the pair was making what looks like a bearish divergence as it hit the former support area at the .8350 minor psychological level. To top it off, a spinning top (which almost looked like an evening star) formed right at that level so I decided to lock in whatever profits I had.

Little did I know that the pair would still bounce higher and make it up to my profit target at .8370! I know I could’ve exercised some patience in waiting for price to hit my target, but I chose the safe route and I don’t regret it one bit!

With that, here’s how it all turned out:

P/L: +0.18%/+30 pips

Not bad for supposedly canceled trade, huh? I think that’s pretty swell for a short-term trade and I’d take a few pips over a loss any day! Now, excuse me while I get ready for my date tonight…

But before I go, do you have any comdoll trade setups that you think I should keep my eye on for this week? Hit me up!

Have a love-filled Valentines Day to you all!

Entry Orders Set: 2012-02-10 2:31

Good morning, friends!

Thanks to Mattspips’ comment below, I took a closer look at NZD/USD and spotted a more promising setup. As we can see, the .8300 had been a pretty good resistance area in late January. Then, the major psychological level turned into a support area for most of February.

NZD/USD Support

I’m crossing my fingers that the level will continue to hold in the next couple of days. Since the pair had already broken the rising trendline that I spotted yesterday, I’m now turning my focus on a potential bounce from the .8300 handle.

Fundamentally, I’m relying on the strong Chinese trade numbers we saw a couple of hours ago, as well as the recent positive developments in the euro region to hold up risk appetite.

Here’s my plan:

Place buy stop order at .8320 (above the current 4-hour candle), tight stop loss at .8280 (below Feb 6 candle low) and take profit at .8370 (PWH and yesterday’s high).

Since it’s in my trading resolutions to not have a position open over the weekends, I’m planning to cancel my order if it still doesn’t get triggered before the end of the week. If it gets triggered and I’m ahead by a few pips, I will move my stop to break even over the weekend.

What do you think? Do the Kiwi bulls still have enough muscle, or are we already seeing a reversal? Again, I can’t tell you how much I appreciate your advice!

You know where to reach me!

Trade Idea: 2012-02-09 2:50
Is the Kiwi rally overdone? By the looks of its daily chart, it sure seems so! I decided to zoom in to the 1-hour chart to look for a potential entry level, but it appears that NZD/USD‘s uptrend is still very much intact. I’m seeing a resistance level around .8400, which is also close to the top of the channel!

NZD/USD Trade Idea

As for fundamentals, New Zealand‘s jobs report came in mixed as it printed a weaker than expected increase in employment for the last quarter of 2011 but showed a 0.3% drop in joblessness.

The U.S. doesn’t seem to be doing so well as it got a debt rating downgrade warning from S&P. If they don’t get their finances in order anytime soon, I have a feeling that risk aversion will pop its head back in the markets and force the comdolls to return their recent gains.

While my bias is a bit bearish, I still haven’t decided on an actual entry level yet. I think it’d be better for me to wait for more confirmation, such as reversal candlesticks on the .8400 area, before jumping in. I’ll keep you posted through any of the following accounts so make sure we’re connected!

@Happy_pip Twitter
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Crossing my fingers for more pips this week,

Happy time

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  • Mattspips

    I’ll make some comments here that will hopefully help you out, Since we are in an uptrend (rising channel) don’t short!  Only look to go long at support areas, if we see a solid break from the channel, then look for a good area to short it. You might short it at the top of the channel, and price may just move sideways till it hits support at the bottom of the channel, and you have your money tied up doing nothing, or worse, getting stopped out. 

    Always ask yourself before trading, is this the best trade I can make on this pair? 

    • happypip

      Great advice, Mattspips. I really appreciate it! Are you looking to go long at any specific levels? 🙂

      • Mattspips

        I’ve got a bigger channel drawn that you can see on the 4 hour chart, and I would enter long at 0.8300 or 0.8275, but would have to see a bounce off either level before entering (looking for double bottom, enter on second bounce). 

        • Forexnoob

          agree with you mattspips

  • Mattspips

    Happy Pip,

    I’ve attached a picture showing the channel I see on the 4 hour charts, it looks like price blew right through 0.8300, but is holding at 0.8250, seeing the big bounce off that level (also resistance recently) – I have an order at 0.8255 now and a tight SL at 0.8240 – targeting 0.8400

    I always try and wait for a bounce off a level before putting in an order, I feel its best to get some confirmation that a certain level is being seen by others as support/resistance.

    Good Luck!

  • Guillermo Siaira

    In my opinion it’s time to see comdolls appreciation against USD, and there is going to be an inflationary process in all commodities prices, and commodities prices rising up means that trade balances of the nations which are the main exporters of those goods are going to be possitive in their next releases, that´s my hypothesis and fundamentals to support your trade. The rest is technical.Good luck!