Comdoll Weekly Replay (October 24-28, 2011): 10-to-1 Winner on AUD/USD

Whew! Those were some wild Halloween parties, huh? The trick or treat events might be over but I’ve still got one more treat for y’all as I present to you the best setup for last week!

Best Comdoll Setup of the Week

AUD/USD is at it again! As you can see from the chart below, the pair made a 400-pip rally after pulling back to the week open price last week. Had I taken that setup and used a 100/1/1 STA, I would’ve caught a neat 10-to-1 move!

AUD/USD 400-pip Rally

I’m lovin’ this setup because it achieved that trifecta of technical signals before making a strong move. I’m talking about that bullish divergence, 50% Fib, and area of interest at the 1.0350 minor psychological level. How did I miss those?!

I guess I was feeling risk averse that week, which was why I hesitated to join the bull camp. You see, the EU summit was taking place that day AUD/USD found support at the week open price. At that time, it seemed that it was really a 50-50 toss-up between a bounce or a break, and I was scared to risk it.

Hopefully I don’t get spooked out of any good setups this week as I try to bounce back from my USD/CAD trade.

Hit me up through any of these pages!

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Let’s make pips this week!

Happy time

What Moved the Comdolls Last Week

The comdolls started the week on the right side of the charts as a manufacturing report from China boosted the demand for commodity-related currencies. China’s manufacturing PMI registered its first expansionary signal in three months, which is usually positive for economies relying on demand from China.

The Aussie, Loonie, and the Kiwi encountered bad vibes on Tuesday when the BOC was surprisingly dovish in its interest rate statement. Though the central bank kept its rates at 1%, it expressed its concerns on the U.S. economic growth. What’s more, it also reduced its 2011 economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.1% while the 2012 growth forecast was also downgraded from 2.6% to 1.9%. Talk about dovishness!

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Around the middle of the week the comdolls showed mixed price action as traders try to guess at the results of the EU-related meetings. AUD/USD and NZD/USD slipped a bit despite a hawkish RBNZ interest rate decision, while USD/CAD dropped in favor of the Loonie.

Thursday was a good day for almost all the high-yielding currencies as the European leaders released their latest plans for the European debt crisis. Merkel, Sarkozy, and their crew revealed that the EFSF will be boosted to 1 trillion EUR, while the European banks would have to sustain a 50% haircut on their Greek debt holdings.

Just to give you an idea of the comdolls’ gains, AUD/USD rocketed by 315 pips; USD/CAD blasted below parity with a 135-pip gain, while NZD/USD rose by 262 pips. Whoo!

It seems that the comdoll party ended on Thursday though, for the pairs barely moved on Friday after its blockbuster performances on Thursday. Okay, maybe it’s also because no economic reports were released from Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Meanwhile, commodities took a slight hit in the markets after some traders took their profits.

On a weekly basis, AUD/USD capped the week with a whopping 335-pip gain at 1.0712; USD/CAD ended the week with a 177-pip rise at .9920, while NZD/USD also bagged 207 pips at .8228 Not bad for a few days’ action, eh?

So, did I miss anything? We certainly saw some good trading opportunities last week! Will the NFP week next week be as interesting? Shout out your forecasts on one of my pages, will you? I can’t wait to hear what you think!

@Happy_pip Twitter
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Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

Happy time

  • Foricks

    I am still on my long term bull run for the AUD USD  pair.  I bought at 1.0425 and rode it up to 1.0681.  Last night I wrote out my plan based on the Rates News.  If no change, buy at mkt (~1.0535) / If rate changed to 4.5%, stick to original entry orders at 1.0315.  I am currently in for two 0.5% sized orders with TPs for the long haul at the top of the channel from October.
    Plan the trade/trade the plan.
    I also ended up with a USDCAD buy at 1.0205 erroneously created instead of a third AUDUSD order (blaming the Hallween Nog while trick or treating).  I stuck it out and corrected my TP for 1.0220 which is a huge resistance point for this pair.  I’d rather be lucky than good any day!
    Cheers,
    Foricks