Comdoll Weekly Replay (May 30 – June 3, 2011): Three 150-pip Setups

Best Setups of the Week

It looks like AUD/USD, USD/CAD, and NZD/USD all showed pip-tastic setups last week. Because of that, I decided to give the “Best Setup of the Week” award to the three of them! Check out the 150-pip wins on each pair:

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Chart

AUD/USD paced back and forth between the 1.0750 minor psychological resistance and the 1.0600 handle for the entire week. A weak U.S. ADP figure may have stirred risk aversion and dragged the pair to the 1.0600 support, but a strong Australian retail sales report pushed it back up. Aside from that, the worse than expected U.S. NFP report triggered a dollar selloff and carried AUD/USD all the way up to 1.0750 again.

I could’ve gone long at 1.0600 and aimed for the 1.0750 resistance. With a 50-pip stop and 1% risk, I could’ve bagged 3% on this baby!

USD/CAD

USD/CAD Chart

Next up is this breakout trade from the Loonie. As you can see from the chart above, USD/CAD consolidated right below the .9700 handle before breaking out and shooting up.

At first, I thought it weird that the Loonie fell when the U.S. released weak data, especially since the BOC is definitely more hawkish than the Fed. But when I read Pip Diddy’s daily forex fundamental commentary on the Loonie, I learned that the Canadian economy also stands to lose when the U.S. is showing signs of a slowdown.

Anyway, had I gone long at .9700 and aimed for .9850 just when that bearish divergence formed, I could’ve made 150 pips on the trade. Again, risking 1% with a 50-pip stop would’ve been a nice 3% win!

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Chart

Lastly, here’s a short trade setup on NZD/USD. A bearish divergence formed when the price found difficulty breaking above the .8250 minor psychological level. Shorting at the .8250 level and aiming for .8100 would’ve been another 150 pips. Oh how I wish I caught this move!

Had I risked my usual 0.5% on this short trade, it still would’ve yielded a 1.5% win!

Imagine if I caught all three moves! I’d be grooving with at least a 4.5% weekly gain if I risked 0.5% on each trade. That’d bring me one step closer to my dream vacation in Maldives…

Okay, enough daydreaming. Time to get back on the grind and hunt for those winning setups. You know what they say, hindsight is always 20/20. I sure hope my trading vision for this coming week is just as clear! Wish me luck folks!

Happy time

So What Moved the Comdolls Last Week?

Good morning, my beautiful friends! As much as I want to stare at Roger Federer battling Rafael Nadal all day, I’d rather spend time writing my comdoll replays for you!

The comdolls were off to a shaky start last week when traders from the U.S. and the U.K. started the week with bank holidays, which drained around two-thirds of trading volume.

Good thing the comdoll bulls made up for the lost time on Tuesday when they boosted both the Loonie and the Kiwi on hawkish RBA statements, better-than-expected Canadian GDP report, and strong New Zealand business confidence. The Aussie bulls weren’t able to join the party though, as a weak building approvals report made them edgy on buying up the Aussie.

French Open Happypova

In the middle of the week the comdolls caught a classic case of midweek reversal as weak employment reports from the U.S. and a sharp slide in Austrailia’s GDP hampered appetite for high-yielding currencies. Australia‘s GDP surprisingly contracted by 1.2% in the first quarter from its 0.8% growth in the last quarter of 2010, while the ADP report from the U.S. showed a steep drop from 177,000 to only 38,000 additional non-farm-related jobs in May. Eeck!

Near the end of the week we saw mixed price action from the comdolls as better-than-expected economic reports played tug-o-war with a weak NFP report, weak dollar, and a bit of risk aversion. We saw the Kiwi make record highs against the Greenback, while the Aussie pocketed most of its gains. Meanwhile, the Loonie bulls held back from the comdoll rally because of concerns on Canada‘s dependence on the strength of the U.S., its largest trading partner.

All right, that’s it for me today! Got any questions for me? I’d be happy to share with you my two cents on everything from Canada’s relationship to oil and the U.S. economy, to Federer’s best tournament outfit! Don’t hesitate to hit me up on my @happy_pip Twitter and Facebook pages, okay? Or better yet, drop a thought or two on the comment box below!

Till tomorrow!

Happy time

  • Mattspips

    So, where are you at this week on the USD/CAD setup?   Think it will head back down tot he 0.97 area or are you sitting on the sidelines this week on this pair? 

    Also, what about the AUD/USD?  Looks to be consolidating in a rante and about to head down, RSI has been falling and showing some divergence in the 4 hour charts, also in the 1 hour we keep hitting the 1.0750 area and the RSI keeps heading lower and lower, bearish breakout eminent?

    • happypip

      Good to hear from you again, Mattspips!

      USD/CAD will probably
      hang around the psychological .9800 level for a while since the grim NFP
      figure can actually weigh on Canada’s economy too. I think I’ll wait
      for more commodity action or Canadian data before I jump in. Have you
      entered your trade on this one yet?

      As for AUD/USD, I’m also
      waiting to see if the RBA statement can move the pair significantly in
      any direction (the last one was almost a non-event) :(

      • Mattspips

        Hey,

        I think the NZD/USD is setting up pretty good right now for a long – its hitting the support line its been on since middle may, and stochastics are low and about to cross, RSI isn’t showing much just at 45, but its seen support at this line before and would think at least 50-100 pips can be made between today and tomorrow by going long. 

        • Mattspips

          Meant to insert this image last time – let me know your thoughts ! 

          • happypip

            Oooh, it looks like that setup did play out well. Were you able to go long?

          • Mattspips

             I did get in and got lucky with some good NZD news so now she rocketed up to previous highs around 0.8250, but seeing divergence on the RSI now on the 4 hour so I’m shorting this pair currently.  Got my take profit around 0.8200 and SL at 0.8275, I got in at 0.8250 so looking to get 50 pips.  We’ll see if that support line holds up still.