Can you believe we’re in the middle of the week already? Let’s look at the market themes dominating price action so far this week and see if they can help us find good trade ideas! Here’s my list:
Midweek Market Analysis
Barack-to-Barack for Obama!
Price action was muted early this week as traders waited for America to decide on who gets to lead the country for the next four years. The high-yielding currencies shot up against the Greenback early today though, when speculations of an Obama win started going around. Will the dollar weakness continue until the end of the week?
Spain still playing the bailout game
Spain has been playing its own waiting game. Spanish officials continue to straddle the bailout fence by simultaneously denying the need for one and announcing its openness to the idea of a bailout. Not surprisingly, traders are showing their impatience by boosting the Spanish bond yields higher. Now that the spotlight is out of the U.S., will frustrations in Spain dictate price action this week?
RBA keeps rates steady at 3.25%
The RBA spread good vibes yesterday when it surprisingly kept its interest rates steady at 3.25%. Apparently, Australia’s climbing inflation rate as well as improved optimism over China’s economic prospects kept the central bank from pulling the rate cut trigger for another month.
With the RBA keeping its rates steady, it’s no surprise that the Aussie is 1.19% ahead of the Greenback so far this week. That’s higher than USD/CAD’s 0.63% intraweek losses, and NZD/USD’s 0.55% gains for the week. The question is, will the comdoll bulls keep up the optimism for the rest of the week? Remember that the comdoll event chart still has a couple of potential game changers on deck!
Potential Trade Setups
AUD/USD: Rising Wedge Breakout!
Are we seeing a potential continuation of AUD/USD’s rally here? The pair just broke above the top of the rising wedge on the 4-hour chart right after the RBA announced that they’d keep rates on hold for now. At the same time, stochastic is pointing upwards, suggesting that the Aussie has more room to climb. See the setup
USD/CAD: Rising Channel Holding
Now here’s a potential retracement play on USD/CAD. As you can see from the chart, the pair is still moving inside a rising channel on its 4-hour time frame but it appears to be pulling back after finding resistance at the top. The pair could retrace until the 38.2% to 50% Fibs, which are in line with the bottom of the channel. See the setup
NZD/USD: Approaching .8350 Resistance
After several unsuccessful attempts at breaking beyond the .8350 minor psychological level, the pair seems ready to test the resistance once more. It still has a long way to go though, so you might have to wait until the middle of the week if you’re planning to short around .8350. See the setup
Comdoll Event Highlights for November 5-9, 2012
It’s not hard to see that the comdoll countries are in for big data dumps this week. Australia has already started with its retail sales and trade data, but New Zealand won’t be too far behind with its employment numbers due this week. Canada isn’t also one to get left behind with its IVEY PMI data and trade balance numbers.
But wait, Australia isn’t done yet! It will print its employment numbers later this week after the RBA publishes its interest rate decision. Last but not the least, China will cap the week with its results on industrial production, retail sales, and inflation. Talk about a big week!
Hope you guys are ready for the week ahead! But now that we have taken note of the important comdoll events, it’s time to mark the potential inflection points on your comdoll charts!
Significant Levels to Watch Out For
|Week Open (WO)|
|Previous Week High (PWH)|
|Previous Week Low (PWL)|
|Top Weekly ATR (tWATR)|
|Bottom Weekly ATR (bWATR)|
|Other significant levels|
In case you’re wondering what ATRs are all about and how I computed those figures, make sure you check out my entry explaining my trading strategies.
Have fun and good luck trading this week, friends!
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