Trade Update: 2011-06-14
As I mentioned in my Comdoll Weekly Replay, AUD/USD had a 300-pip run last week. Unfortunately, my long trade was on the wrong side of the fence. That’s another loss from trading AUD/USD! Boo hoo…
Good thing I came across a video of Hugh Jackman and Neil Patrick Harris duet at the Tony Awards. That definitely pumped up my happy vibes after this frustrating loss!
You see, I set my stop below AUD/USD‘s previous week low so that I’d have enough leeway for my long trade. Apparently, my stop still wasn’t wide enough. Price dipped close to the 1.0500 major psychological handle, threw me out of the trade, then jumped back above 1.0600 yesterday. Arrrrrrghhh!
The Aussie seemed to have a fighting chance when my trade got triggered. However, the weak Chinese trade balance released last Friday was probably too much for the Aussie to bear. I just wish I had set my stop at 1.0500 so I’d still be in this trade and up by a few pips.
How else could I have played this trade better? Should I have locked in profits early? Should I have moved my stop to entry right away? Share your thoughts with me on the boxes below, or even on @happy_pip Twitter and Facebook. I could really use your help right now! *sniff*
Till my next trade,
Trade Update: 2011-06-10
Good morning guys! Just wanted to let you know that I got triggered on my trade yesterday!
As it turned out, AUD/USD bounced off WATR in the U.S. session while the ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet was making his “strong vigilance” speech. My trade got triggered, and the pair shot up to above the 1.0650 minor psychological handle.
Then, just when I thought that I could finally get started on my all-organic morning snack, we saw the pair edge down back to the major support level that I pointed out.
Good thing that the odds are lining up in my favor again! Aside from making a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 1-hour chart, Stochastic is also showing an oversold signal. What’s more, I’m seeing a slightly bullish divergence too!
Let’s see how this trade plays out. As some of my friends pointed out, the pair could still fall below my stop loss level. I hope it goes above the 1.0650 handle to break the head and shoulder neckline, but I still plan on watching this pair closely in case more of my bullish setups get invalidated.
Oh, and watch out for my comdoll replay post this weekend, will ya? I have a surprise for my BFFs. My best forex friends, that is!
Trade Idea: 2011-06-09
This is it, friends! I’m taking another shot at AUD/USD! Do you think that a bounce from psychological levels will save me from another loss?
I know it’s not easy to keep on logging in trades after losing consecutively, but thanks to Dr. Pipslow’s empowering trade advice, I now have the drive to just keep on trading.
This week I decided to take another shot at trading AUD/USD because I spotted the pair lollygagging around a pretty good support area. You see, not only is 1.0600 a major psychological handle, it’s also lining up nicely with yesterday’s low and last week’s low! What’s more, a bullish divergence and an oversold Stochastic signal are just waving a big buy signal.
On the fundamental side of things, I have faith that the Aussie will get its swagger back sooner or later. After all, the RBA did mention in its recent rate statement that the Australian economy is growing strongly.
Just yesterday, Australia printed a stellar 4.8% increase in home loans, twice as much as the estimated 2.4% climb. However, their jobs report released earlier today turned out to be a disappointment when it showed a mere 7,800 increase in hiring. But hey, an increase is still good, right?
Well, at least the Australian economy seems to be doing much better than the U.S. Heck, didn’t the U.S. just print a bleak NFP figure last week? Aside from that, Uncle Sam’s trade deficit is expected to widen from 48.2 billion USD to 48.6 billion USD in April. I’ll keep an eye out for the actual data due 12:30 pm GMT today, along with the U.S. initial jobless claims figure.
As I learned from my past trades, I should stay constantly vigilant about any shifts in market sentiment, especially while my trade is open.
This is why I’ll also be tuning in to the BOE and ECB rate decisions today to see if they can affect risk appetite. In fact, I think I’ll just read up again on Forex Gump’s article on the upcoming rate decisions this week.
In any case, here’s what I plan to do:
Long AUD/USD at 1.0610, stop at 1.0540, profit target at 1.0750
Potential reward to risk ratio : 2:1
What do you think? Are my entry and stop levels safe enough? Don’t hesitate to give me advice on the box below! If you’re the shy type though, you can also hit me up on my @Happy_pip Twitter and Facebook pages!
Waiting for your opinion,