Very little movement in the majors today

Recapping the Majors

EUR/USD- The Euro edged up slightly higher against the Dollar but didn’t quite make it to the 3400 resistance level. Today’s gain is the 2nd straight gain by the Euro although today’s slower movement might be an indication of exhaustion.

Result: The Euro made another gain (although small) against the Dollar today.

GBP/USD- The 9700 resistance level once again held strong and the Dollar was able to push the Sterling back down. Yesterday the pair tested the 9700 and today’s bounce down could signify the strength of the resistance level.

Result: The Dollar held its ground at 9700 and was able to push the Sterling lower today.

USD/CHF- The Dollar once again drifted lower against the Swissy but didn’t quite get to 2100 like I thought it would. The pair reached as low as 2115 but has sinced bounced back up and is trading at around 2140 at the time of this writing. Today marks the 2nd straight day the Dollar has slumped against the Swissy although it was only a minimal fall.

Result: The Swissy pushed the Dollar down for the 2nd straight day but the momentum looks like it may be dying down.

USD/JPY- The USD/JPY pretty much continued its lack luster pattern and didn’t really go anywhere today. The pair once again traded between its 50 EMA and 200 SMA on the daily chart and is trading just slightly lower from its open price.

Result: It was yet another draw between the 2 currencies with neither one being able to push the other down.

Chart Analysis: What’s going to happen next?

EUR/USD

Seeing as how the Euro didn’t quite make it to the 3400 resistance level I think we may be seeing signs that the rally is exhausted. 4hr stochastics are in overbought territory and daily stochastics are trending down which supports my bearish bias. We might see one more push towards 3400 but I think we are real close to seeing the pair fall. Look for the Euro to fall to around 3300 in the near future.

GBP/USD

The 9700 resistance level held strong once again and the pair has started to bounce down. 4hr stochastics are trending down while daily stochastics are in overbought territory. I’m bearish on this pair right now and would expect it to fall to 9600 and possibly down to its 50 EMA on the 4hr chart.

USD/CHF

The Swissy did edge down lower today like I thought it would but it didn’t quite hit 2100. 4hr stochastics are still trending down and are almost in oversold territory so I think we could still see the pair fall towards the 2100 area. Daily stochastics are trending up and I think that from 2100 we’ll see the pair bounce back up to around 2150.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY is still consolidating which leads me to believe that we’ll see some sort of breakout soon. We are seeing the formation of an ascending triangle and I think that if the pair can break either its 50 EMA or 200 SMA, we’ll see some major movement in that direction.

  • investor

    Hi Pippin,

    In regards to EUR/USD for today not breaking the 3400 resistance level, would you imply to USD having a wave of bad news, like consumer confidence and house market declining? What are the variables of market resistance? Also, would you wait for a clear market leader to trade, as who are winning the battle, the bulls or bears?

    Thanks,
    Investor

  • brown204

    Hey pippin, thanks for the heads up on usd/jpy the other day. I entered short at 118.20 closed at 117.32. Thanks man!

  • investor

    Hi Pippin,

    In regards to EUR/USD for today not breaking the 3400 resistance level, would you imply to USD having a wave of bad news, like consumer confidence and house market declining? What are the variables of market resistance? Also, would you wait for a clear market leader to trade, as who are winning the battle, the bulls or bears?

    Thanks,
    Investor

  • brown204

    Hey pippin, thanks for the heads up on usd/jpy the other day. I entered short at 118.20 closed at 117.32. Thanks man!

  • bigpippin

    investor- Purely from a technical standpoint, if you look at a daily chart, you’ll see that the price hasn’t been above 3400 since way back in 2005. This is a psychological reason why 3400 provides a good resistance. This is not to say the pair could not go higher, but that is when we would need to see a major fundamental shift in the Euro’s favor (ie- good Eurozone news or bad US news). I like looking for momentum shifts when entering a trade. If I am bearish then I’ll wait to see if there is momentum picking up in that favor. It’s not always an easy thing to do and your timing won’t always be perfect but having a general overall opinion on a pair is the first step to finding your trade.

    brown204- I’m glad my post was able to help you. How about that big breakout today huh? It was nice that we were able to anticipate it with just a simple chart pattern :) Happy trading!

  • bigpippin

    investor- Purely from a technical standpoint, if you look at a daily chart, you’ll see that the price hasn’t been above 3400 since way back in 2005. This is a psychological reason why 3400 provides a good resistance. This is not to say the pair could not go higher, but that is when we would need to see a major fundamental shift in the Euro’s favor (ie- good Eurozone news or bad US news). I like looking for momentum shifts when entering a trade. If I am bearish then I’ll wait to see if there is momentum picking up in that favor. It’s not always an easy thing to do and your timing won’t always be perfect but having a general overall opinion on a pair is the first step to finding your trade.

    brown204- I’m glad my post was able to help you. How about that big breakout today huh? It was nice that we were able to anticipate it with just a simple chart pattern :) Happy trading!