The Dollar sneaks in over the US Holiday

EUR/USD

And finally the Euro has dropped back down to its 50 EMA on the 4hr chart like I had been saying for the past several weeks now. Now that market volume has returned to normal today, the Euro has once again risen to right around 4600. Daily stochastics are trending down very nice and I think we will still see more drops in the Euro in the next few weeks. Look for the Euro to bounce down from 4600 to around 4550 some time tomorrow.

GBP/USD

All my bearish talk on the Cable finally paid its dues over the course of the past couple of trading sessions as the pair dropped almost 600 pips! I hope you were able to cash in such a huge move. The Cable has now fallen right to its 100 SMA on the 4hr chart and has its 50 EMA and 200 SMA forming an upper and lower boundary. Daily stochastics are trending down nicely so I still think we’ll see more bearish movement but 4hr stochastics are currently trending up. I would look for the Cable to rise to its 50 EMA at around 2.0800 and then proceed to drop back down to its 100 SMA at around 2.0700.

USD/CHF

The Dollar wasn’t able to rally up against the Swissy today like I thought it might, and instead it dropped right back down to its support at 1250. The bullish divergence is still present on the 4hr chart and both 4hr and daily stochastics are in oversold territory. I am expecting this 1250 support to hold and I would watch for the Dollar to make it back up to at least 1300 some time tomorrow.

USD/JPY

The Dollar dropped all the way down to 109.00 before finally bouncing back up to around 110.30. At the moment, daily stochastics have crossed back up in oversold territory while 4hr stochastics are trending up nicely. I would look for the Dollar to continue rising to around 111.00 against the Yen over next day or so.

I’m not really big into fundamentals but I feel that they are important to discuss. In this section I will be posting fundamental tidbits that I find interesting from various sources. If you find an article that you think would benefit everyone, please email me (Big Pippin) with your username, the article, and a link to where members can read the entire article.

Now onto the Fundamentals:
  • Bernanke Sees Slower US Growth
    • Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday that a host of economic problems, including the severe housing slump, will cause business growth to slow noticeably in coming months. Bernanke told Congress’ Joint Economic Committee that the central bank is watching developments closely, but gave no signal that it’s prepared at the current time to cut interest rates even further. He stressed that the central bank was keeping all options open, saying the Fed would be closely watching economic growth and the threat of inflation.
  • "Model Behavior"

    • Super Model Gisele Bundchen has decided that she wants to remain the world’s richest model by insisting that she be paid in almost any currency but the U.S. dollar! OK… Now the dollar has been officially dissed! Sure guys like Rogers, Buffett, Gross, Butler, Wiggin, and Bonner have dissed the dollar because of the fundamentals… But when a super model decides to side with us, well then we’ve got ourselves what I’ll call… "Model Behavior"!\
  • UK September retail sales saw the highest annual growth in 3 years:

    • The Office for National Statistics reported that retail sales in September rose 6.3 pct from a year ago, the highest rise since September 2004 and above analyst expectations for a 5.6 pct increase. In August sales rose 4.8 pct year-on-year, revised down from the earlier estimate of 4.9 pct.
News events to watch for tomorrow :
  • 4:30am EDT- GBP Average Earnings Index
  • 5:30am EDT- BOE Inflation Report
  • 8:30am EDT- US Retail Sales
  • 8:30am EDT- US PPI
  • 9:10am EDT- US Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

For a list of all of tomorrow’s news events, check out our Forex Calendar

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