Recapping the Majors
EUR/USD- After dipping below 3500 for a brief moment, the Euro has retraced back up and rose above 3500 once again. The pair has made its way back up to 3550 and is currently trading just below it at 3540. The Euro had fallen about 150 pips since April 29th and is now starting to retrace.
Result: The Euro rose back up above 3500 and hit the 3550 mark against the Dollar today.
GBP/USD- Well after a big drop last week, the Cable has found support at its 50 EMA on the daily chart. The pair has been floating right around 9800 and seems to have paused for the time being. The pair could either make a rally from here or if it happens to break support, we could see the pair make bigger drops.
USD/CHF- After rising to 2200, the Swissy couldn’t get past the resistance and has since been hanging around that level . The pair has been bouncing between its 50 EMA on the daily chart and the 2200 level. The Swissy had previously rallied from 2100 to 2200 but has seemed to frozen for the moment.
Result: The Dollar pretty much stayed still against the Swissy and has been bouncing between its 50 EMA and the 2200 mark.
USD/JPY- The USD/JPY fell briefly to 119.50 but has since rallied strong and has made its way up to almost 120.50. The pair had been hanging around the 120.00 mark for several days and now seems to be stuck in between 119.50 and 120.50.
Result: The Dollar rallied slightly against the Yen pushing it from 119.50 to around 120.40 over the past couple of days.
Chart Analysis: What’s going to happen next?
The Euro seems to be in retracement mode right now. The pair bottomed out just below 3500 at around 3480 and has since risen back above the 3500 mark. Daily stochastics are now trending up after hitting oversold territory which means we could still see the pair rise back to 3600 but 4hr stochastics are currently in overbought territory and are trending down. Look for the Euro to make an initial drop towards the 3500 mark before continuing its retracement to the upside.
The Cable seems to have found pretty good support at its 50 EMA on the daily chart. 4hr stochastics are trending down while daily stochastics are in oversold territory. The pair could rally since the daily stochastics are in oversold territory but the daily stochastics are also trending down which means we could still see some downward movement. 4hr stochastics are also trending down which indicates a short term drop so we could see the pair pierce through the 50 EMA support and fall towards 9750. If the pair does break the 50 EMA on the daily chart, then watch for it to hit the 9750 mark.
2200 seems to be a good resistance point for the Swissy. It has been bouncing between the 50 EMA on the daily chart and the 2200 level for a few days now. 4hr stochastics are trending up but daily stochastics are in overbought territory and are trending down. Look for the pair to float around 2200 for a little longer, but if the pair breaks below its 50 EMA, then look for the pair to drop to 2150.
I’ve been saying that the USD/JPY would fall to 119.00 for a while now and it doesn’t seem to be doing that. 4hr stochastics are in oversold territory at the moment whihc means we could see it fall back down to 120.00 but the daily stochastics have crossed back up which is now giving me second thoughts about beeing extremely bearish on the pair. For now, my short term outlook is bearish and with the pair currently at 120.33, I would expect the USD/JPY to fall back down to at least 120.00.