The Cable does a major 180 after rallying strong from the Interest Rate Statement

EUR/USD

I’ve been extremely bearish on this pair and we did see it start to fall down towards 3800 but of course the US interest rate statement caused the Euro to rocket back up and is now almost at 1.4000! I’m still bearish on the pair. I think the Euro is overextended and I’m still going to look to sell. Both 4hr and daily stochastics are in overbought territory and there is also a bearish divergence on the 4hr chart. In the short term, I would look for the pair to move from 1.3950 down to 1.3900.

GBP/USD

The Cable had a massive surge after yesterday’s Interest Rate statement but has since corrected itself. Right now, it’s tough to get a bias on the pair since we’re seeing a lot of up and down movement the past few days. Right now, I’d like to wait another day and see what the market does before making any trades.

USD/CHF

The Swissy has been bouncing around from 1800-1900 for a while, and to me, that’s really ok since we can buy on dips and sell on rallies. Right now it looks like the pair has found support at 1800 again and is on its way back up. 4hr stochastics are trending up while daily stochastics are in oversold territory. Currently the pair is trading around 1837 and I would look for it to move on up to its 50 EMA on the 4hr chart at around 1880.

USD/JPY

Although the Yen has moved up again. I am still bearish on the pair. I’m seeing an extended bearish divergence on the 4hr chart and both 4hr and daily stochastics are nearing overbought territory. We may see the pair drift slightly higher, but I am still expecting to see a drop by the end of this week.

I’m not really big into fundamentals but I feel that they are important to discuss. In this section I will be posting fundamental tidbits that I find interesting from various sources. If you find an article that you think would benefit everyone, please email me (Big Pippin) with your username, the article, and a link to where members can read the entire article.

Now onto the Fundamentals:
  • 50 bps rate cut scares Chuck Butler:
    • Let me tell you what it scares me about the 50 BPS rate cut…
      1. It doesn’t do anything to help the liquidity / credit crunch…
      2. It allows inflation to take hold even more.
      3. Stocks had better start kicking some tail to attract foreign investment, because our deposit rates aren’t going to!

  • Credit market is not so great. Hank Paulson, US Treasury Secretary said in Financial Times:
    • The crisis of confidence in credit markets is likely to last longer than previous financial shocks of the past two decades, Hank Paulson, Treasury secretary, warned on Tuesday. He said the uncertainty in credit markets would last longer than the turmoil that followed the Asian crisis and the Russian default of the 1990s or the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s. Mr. Paulson said the likely duration of the turmoil reflected the difficulties of financial services companies in valuing complex assets tainted by mortgage-backed securities.