Fed speaks hawkish, but the dollar still falls

I apologize for not posting yesterday. I was sick as a dog and even now as I write I am still coughing up a storm! Neverthless, a little sickness won’t keep Big Pippin away from the Forex..

Here is a technical summary of what happened today in the majors:

EUR/USD– Woowee..remember how I thought the Euro rally was over? Boy was I wrong, and its a good thing I held off on trading this pair. Today the Euro surged to almost 3400 after the Fed’s interest rate statement. This move could just be noise for now since before the statement, the market was still undecided. I still think we may see the Euro fall but I’m going to hold off for now because the Euro is going strong at the moment.

Result: What started off as a quiet day, turned into a Euro slaughter over the dollar following the Fed’s interest rate statement.

GBP/USD- The Cable continued its rally against the Dollar and soared to almost 9700. The pair has moved almost 400 pips in the last 7 days and it makes you wonder when/if the dollar will fight back.

Result: The Sterling once again rallied against the Dollar for the 7th straight day!

USD/CHF- The Swissy has been staying pretty quiet the past couple of days and has been hovering right around the 2100 level. Although the Dollar fell slightly today, I would still have to say that its pretty much an even draw right now.

Result: The Dollar took a slight fall but the pair is still pretty much flat.

USD/JPY- The Yen pretty much stayed put between the 117-118 level. The pair has been edging up higher with higher lows on the daily chart but we still have yet to see the Dollar make any significant moves against the Yen.

Result: Today was a slight victory for the Dollar but the Yen is not giving up too much.

Chart Analysis: What’s going to happen next?

EUR/USD

I’ve been saying that I felt the Euro rally would end and the Euro just does the exact opposite! However, because I wasn’t really sure about it, I stayed out of this pair for the time being. Thankfully it’s paid off and saved me some losses. I still think the pair looks like it will fall. Daily stochastics are in overbought territory and 4hr stochastics are just heading into overbought territory. I also think that today’s rally might just be noise from the Fed’s interest rate statement today (although technically the pair should’ve dropped because the Fed’s statements were hawkish). It’s a classic case of buy the rumor and sell the news. I think the market will come to its senses tomorrow, and if it doesn’t then I might just have to surrender to the fact that the Euro will continue to rally. I’m not sure where the pair will go tomorrow but I think it will hold resistance at 3400. We may see a little spike above that but I would expect this pair to fall back down to 3350.

GBP/USD

The Cable is in a similar situation as the Euro as it has been rallying against the Dollar for an extended period of time now. 9700 is a pretty good resistance area but we have seen the Cable get up to 9900 before so anything can happen. Both 4hr and daily stochastics are in overbought territory so I’m thinking the 9700 resistance area should hold up. Look for the Cable to bounce from 9700 down to 9600-9650.

USD/CHF

The Swissy looks pretty boring at the moment with the price just hanging around 2100. Both 4hr and daily stochastics have crossed down and are near oversold territory but they haven’t actually moved in there yet. My guess is that the Swissy will still continue to drift down to around 2050 and then probably bounce back up.

USD/JPY

Oh boy, I can feel that this pair is about to burst. Notice how it’s forming a symmetrical triangle? This is a good sign that the pair is going to break out. The million dollar question is which direction? Well that 200 SMA has been a pesky resistance area as the price has not been able to close above it for the past 3 days. Will the bears hold the bulls at bay? 4hr stochastics have crossed down which indicate the bears might be picking up momentum but the daily stochastics are still barely trending up. At this point I think it’s still a coinflip but I’m pretty sure that no matter which way it goes, it’s going to go big! If the pair breaks above the 200 SMA (around 117.64) and can actually close above it, then I think we’ll see this pair move up to its 50 EMA and 100 SMA which are converged together at around 118.50. On the other hand, if the pair breaks below 117.00, I would expect the pair to fall to anywhere between 116.00-116.50.