Revisiting the Big Banks’ Q1 2013 Forecasts

Back in January, I revealed the world’s top banks’ exchange rate predictions for the first three months of the year. Today, I want to look back on these forecasts just to see how well (or badly) analysts from banks such as Citibank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, and BNP Paribas were able to predict price action.

Q1 2013 Forecasts vs. Actual Results

EUR/USD: The analysts’ predictions were actually surprisingly accurate. The euro started losing ground in February, as the gloom and doom of the Italian elections weighed heavily on the shared currency. Over the course of the month, EUR/USD slid a solid 700 pips!

GBP/USD: It turns out that banks underestimated the weakness on GBP/USD. Consensus was that it would drop to 1.6000 but looking at the charts now, we can see that the pair is trading 800 pips below that level. The pound was actually one of the weakest currencies among the majors in Q1 2013, as the poor fundamentals of the U.K. and the threat of a triple dip recession weighed down the pound.

USD/JPY: Experts missed the boat on this pair, as the pair moved in the opposite direction of median forecasts. Thanks to the expectations of more easing from the Bank of Japan, USD/JPY is now trading 1,000 pips above 84.00.

USD/CHF: Estimates were pretty much spot on, which shouldn’t be too surprising, as the EUR/CHF peg may have limited volatility among franc pairs.

USD/CAD: Broad dollar strength allowed the pair to edge higher, as opposed to expectations that it would remain flat.

AUD/USD: After dropping strongly to start the year and falling below 1.0200, AUD/USD staged a late comeback in March to nearly meet forecasts. Positive sentiment towards the comdolls and investors moving funds from Europe helped buoy AUD/USD.

NZD/USD: The pair traded choppily, rising to as high as .8535 in February before falling to .8162 in early March. NZD/USD eventually rebounded and managed to climb above .8300.

As you can see, even the world’s biggest banks don’t always get things right, which is why it’s not advisable to trade solely on forex forecasts. It’s best to conduct your own fundamental and technical analysis and merely use these forecasts to supplement your own research.