Y’all ready to jump back into the markets after buying that new iPad or 3D TV? Here are six reports you should pay attention to if you plan to trade the comdolls this week.
Australian GDP and Retail Sales
I just have a feeling that a bunch of Pip Surfer‘s buddies will be paying attention to these two reports.
Remember, the hotshot bankers at the RBA surprised the markets with a rate hike during their last meeting. Clearly, they are pretty confident about the state of the economy and want to avoid a run of inflation. This signals to me that they believe that the Australian economy will keep chugging along and churning out positive economic results.
Speaking of spitting out positive figures, remember that last GDP report? It was expected to show growth of 0.9% during the 2nd quarter, but actually printed at 1.2%! How awesome was that?
As for retail sales, while it’s missed its targets the past few months, it has consistently been showing growth over the past 7 months. So don’t be surprised if we see another positive month of growth from this report.
If these reports were to come in and post strong figures, it would help provide support for the Aussie, which has taken some hits the past week due to the recent run of risk aversion.
Canadian GDP and Employment Reports
Another economy set to release a GDP reading next week is Canada. As I mentioned earlier, traders usually watch out for the GDP report because it’s practically the economic report card of a country for a specific period of time.
Canada’s version of this economic report doesn’t usually have the same impact as that of other major economies since it is released on a monthly basis. The September GDP reading is expected to print a measly 0.1% expansion, but we could be in for a Loonie rally if the GDP comes in way stronger. Who knows? That could be the catalyst for USD/CAD to finally break below parity!
However, if their monthly GDP dips back into red zone again like its -0.1% reading in July, things might not look too bright for the Loonie. After all, the soon-to-be-released GDP reading for September would also allow traders to figure out how the Canadian economy did for the entire third quarter. Watch out for that on Tuesday, 1:30 pm GMT.
Before the week comes to a close, Canada will release its employment reports, namely the employment change figure and the unemployment rate for November. These reports have huge potential to move the Loonie because jobs growth is a crucial factor in maintaining economic stability.
Canada hasn’t been doing so well on the jobs front lately because their employment change figures for the past couple of months came in below expectations. In fact, Canada even reported a decline in hiring for September. The good news is that their unemployment rate improved from 8.1% to 8.0% during that month, but that was because of a decline in the labor force.
Although October’s rebound in hiring made up for the jobs downturn in September, another weak figure for November could be bearish for the Loonie. But if the actual jobs figure meets the consensus of a 15,000 jump in hiring, USD/CAD could be in for a wild drop! Keep an eye out for the actual figures due Friday 11:00 am GMT.
New Zealand’s Business Confidence Report
The highlight of the week from New Zealand is its monthly NBNZ business confidence report. Results for October broke a 5-month slide when it printed the first uptick with a reading of 23.7.
Could this be a sign that the business sector is finally picking up steam? Remember, the most recent retail sales report posted results waaay above expectations. Now, whether this caused businesses to feel better about their current situations is yet to be seen.
Since the study surveys businesses across various industries, it gives a pretty well-rounded view of the entire private sector. Investors like to keep tabs on this because an increase in business confidence may positively affect other aspects of the economy, too. It may translate into increased employment and business investment, and in the process, give the Kiwi a boost as well.
If you’re a fan of trading New Zealand news, you don’t want to miss this release when it hits stands at 2:00 am GMT on Monday.
Chinese Manufacturing PMI
Even though China isn’t home to any of the comdolls, its releases tend to have a big impact on the Kiwi and the Aussie. Of course, this effect stems from its strong trading ties with New Zealand and Australia. That being said, you may want to check out China’s manufacturing PMI report due on Wednesday at 1:00 am GMT.
Analysts say the index is likely to show a slight downgrade from 54.8 to 54.7 for November. If China’s manufacturing activity were to decline, it would probably import less from New Zealand and Australia. As such, a worse-than-expected figure could result in weaker exports and currencies for both New Zealand and Australia.
Of course there are other big reports, such as the ECB rate decision and the infamous NFP report, to watch out for this week. I’ll keep you posted with some previews and updates, so better keep tabs on my upcoming articles too!