Cowabunga System Daily Update: Wednesday, 11/19/08

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Main Trend

Current Trend= The trend remained up the entire day.

Today I only looked for long trades

News events to watch for today :

  • 4:30am EDT- UK MPC Minutes
  • 8:30am EDT- US Building Permits, CPI
  • 2:00pm EDT- FOMC Minutes

Today’s Surf

12:30am EDT- There was a moving average crossover for a long trade. RSI was greater than 50, stochastics were trending up, but MACD was already positive. This cancelled out the signal and I did not enter.

5:15am EDT- There was a moving average crossover for a long trade. RSI was greater than 50, stochastics were trending up, and MACD went from negative to positive. This was a valid entry. The entry was at the close of the candle at 1.5009 with a stop at the most recent swing low at 1.4931. Since I was 41 pips away from the nearest 50 or 00 level, I decided to put my initial target at 1.5050.

Entry: Long at 1.5009

Stop: 1.4931

Initial Target: 1.5050

5:30am EDT- My target was hit. Price did not make a clean break of my target so I took my final profit. I exited at 1.5045.

8:45am EDT- There was a moving average crossover for a long trade. RSI was greater than 50, stochastics were trending up, and MACD was negative and gaining value. This was a valid entry. The entry was at the close of the candle at 1.5052 with a stop at the most recent swing low at 1.5018. Since I was 48 pips away from the nearest 50 or 00 level, I decided to put my initial target at 1.5100.

Entry: Long at 1.5052

Stop: 1.5018

Initial Target: 1.5100

9:00am EDT- My target was hit. Price made a clean break so I moved my stop to 1.5100 and set my next target for 1.5150.

9:15am EDT- My 2nd target was hit. Price made a clean break so I moved my stop to 1.5150 and set my next target for 1.5200.

9:30am EDT- My 3rd target was hit. Price again made a clean break so I moved my stop to 1.5200 and set my next target for 1.5250.

9:45am EDT- Unfortunately I was stopped out at 1.5250.

entry2

Trade Result: +36 +198= +234 pips (NOT INCLUDING SPREAD) R-Multiple: 0.46; 5.82

News events to watch for tomorrow :

  • 4:30am EDT- UK Retail Sales
  • 8:30am EDT- US Unemployment Claims
  • 10:00am EDT- US Philly Fed Index

For a complete list of news events check out our News Section

Questions? Read the Cowabunga FAQ.

Want to discuss the Cowabunga System? Visit our Forums.

  • moreliator

    Hey Pipsurfer!
    Unfortunately, I missed the 198 pips today. I’m using GFT’s DealBook software, and at the 8:30 AM candle’s close, the 10 period EMA and the 5 period EMA were the same. So, when the 5 period EMA became greater than the slower 10 period EMA at the 8:45 close, I didn’t enter because according to my software the trend had never completely retraced. Of course you know the rest…I missed out on a big 200 pip rally =/

    I keep trying to tell myself that I did the right thing because I followed the rules, but I guess I’m wondering if I did? For your trend change candle to become purple (like it did at 8:30), the fast EMA has to actually become less than the slow EMA, right? Is this just a difference in our brokers? Would you have entered in my position?

    I guess I’m bummed because it would have made up for yesterday’s losses!
    Thanks!

  • mabidashraf

    Hi Moreliator, You were correct in not entering on 8:30 candle as my platform shows EMA 5 was equal to EMA 10, however, it did crossed up at 8:45 candle where one would have entered and so did Pipsurfer. Further, 8:30 was news candle. Hope that helps.

  • FXPRESS

    Pipsurfer – when you enter a trade to you do a market order right at the close of the candle in which you have a crossover?

  • therbcoe

    I’m on MT4 and got 0.0 signals as well.
    Hmmmmmmmmm …..
    RBCOE

  • moreliator

    Hey Pipsurfer!
    Unfortunately, I missed the 198 pips today. I’m using GFT’s DealBook software, and at the 8:30 AM candle’s close, the 10 period EMA and the 5 period EMA were the same. So, when the 5 period EMA became greater than the slower 10 period EMA at the 8:45 close, I didn’t enter because according to my software the trend had never completely retraced. Of course you know the rest…I missed out on a big 200 pip rally =/

    I keep trying to tell myself that I did the right thing because I followed the rules, but I guess I’m wondering if I did? For your trend change candle to become purple (like it did at 8:30), the fast EMA has to actually become less than the slow EMA, right? Is this just a difference in our brokers? Would you have entered in my position?

    I guess I’m bummed because it would have made up for yesterday’s losses!
    Thanks!

  • squeakpip

    Hi Pipsurfer. I’ve checked a few different charting systems and all of them show MACD positive on the 5:00 bar and positive on the 5:15 bar, thus no signal.

    Again at 8:45 I show MACD positive and your chart shows negative.

    Are you still using 12,26,9 for your MACD on the 15 minute chart?

  • mabidashraf

    Hi Moreliator, You were correct in not entering on 8:30 candle as my platform shows EMA 5 was equal to EMA 10, however, it did crossed up at 8:45 candle where one would have entered and so did Pipsurfer. Further, 8:30 was news candle. Hope that helps.

  • FXPRESS

    Pipsurfer – when you enter a trade to you do a market order right at the close of the candle in which you have a crossover?

  • changes

    hi pipsurfer,am gald in all your effort towards the sucsess of your fellow traders please keep it up,,,please i need to ask you som few questions on how to indicate the meaning of EPSM expected,privious ,suprise factor,Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached.,,example suprise factor 0,5% i hope you will explain it to me and i will love to know your location.CHANGES EXISTENCE

  • changes

    am happy for you on your happy moment with your family,,,pls i can i know how you arrange your news candle setup on your trading chat i mean the properties setup on the candle colour indicator,,,thanks,,,CHANGES EXISTENCE

  • changes

    am happy for you on your happy moment with your family,,,pls i can i know how you arrange your news candle setup on your trading chat i mean the properties setup on the candle colour indicator ON NEW TREND CHANGE CANDLE,,,thanks,,,CHANGES EXISTENCE

  • aranjit

    Hey guys for anyone with a positive MACD, its probably the MACD indicator you are using. Some use EMA, some SMA. If you have the right MACD it will have a negative histogram. On that topic, congrats on the great trade Pipsurfer. On my system and from looking at your charts, it looks like MACD histogram is actually more negative, though its almost the same value. If the histogram values are basically the same is that a valid entry signal?

  • therbcoe

    I’m on MT4 and got 0.0 signals as well.

    Hmmmmmmmmm …..
    RBCOE

  • MarkFx

    Hi Pipsurfer. Good luck with the puppy! Would you please correct your results on the 2nd trade? In your video, it’s clear that you were stopped at 1.5200 (as I was also) but you posted 1.5250 for a 198 pip R-Multiple 5.82 gain. It should actually be a 148 pip R-Mult 4.35 gain. Better start taking those vitamins you mentioned. You’ll need them when the puppy arrives.

  • squeakpip

    Hi Pipsurfer. I’ve checked a few different charting systems and all of them show MACD positive on the 5:00 bar and positive on the 5:15 bar, thus no signal.

    Again at 8:45 I show MACD positive and your chart shows negative.

    Are you still using 12,26,9 for your MACD on the 15 minute chart?

  • changes

    hi pipsurfer,am gald in all your effort towards the sucsess of your fellow traders please keep it up,,,please i need to ask you som few questions on how to indicate the meaning of EPSM expected,privious ,suprise factor,Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached.,,example suprise factor 0,5% i hope you will explain it to me and i will love to know your location.CHANGES EXISTENCE

  • changes

    am happy for you on your happy moment with your family,,,pls i can i know how you arrange your news candle setup on your trading chat i mean the properties setup on the candle colour indicator,,,thanks,,,CHANGES EXISTENCE

  • changes

    am happy for you on your happy moment with your family,,,pls i can i know how you arrange your news candle setup on your trading chat i mean the properties setup on the candle colour indicator ON NEW TREND CHANGE CANDLE,,,thanks,,,CHANGES EXISTENCE

  • aranjit

    Hey guys for anyone with a positive MACD, its probably the MACD indicator you are using. Some use EMA, some SMA. If you have the right MACD it will have a negative histogram. On that topic, congrats on the great trade Pipsurfer. On my system and from looking at your charts, it looks like MACD histogram is actually more negative, though its almost the same value. If the histogram values are basically the same is that a valid entry signal?

  • MarkFx

    Hi Pipsurfer. Good luck with the puppy! Would you please correct your results on the 2nd trade? In your video, it’s clear that you were stopped at 1.5200 (as I was also) but you posted 1.5250 for a 198 pip R-Multiple 5.82 gain. It should actually be a 148 pip R-Mult 4.35 gain. Better start taking those vitamins you mentioned. You’ll need them when the puppy arrives.

  • rodhub

    Thanks for all of your help and guidance; I have been following you for quite a while and I am ready to go from my practice account to a real account. From your experience is there much difference in speed of execution or anything else when going from practice to live trading? Thanks again for sharing.

  • rodhub

    Thanks for all of your help and guidance; I have been following you for quite a while and I am ready to go from my practice account to a real account. From your experience is there much difference in speed of execution or anything else when going from practice to live trading? Thanks again for sharing.

  • squeakpip

    In case anyone else experienced “missed” signals due to no MACD signal, many charting systems out there incorrectly calculate the MACD histogram as the difference between the fast and slow lines, whereas the correct method is the difference between the MACD line and the signal line.

    Hope that helps.

  • squeakpip

    In case anyone else experienced “missed” signals due to no MACD signal, many charting systems out there incorrectly calculate the MACD histogram as the difference between the fast and slow lines, whereas the correct method is the difference between the MACD line and the signal line.

    Hope that helps.

  • lissyking

    Hey Pip, quick question

    Suppose you are looking at the 4HR chart for the trend of the day, and there is an EMA upward cross over and the RSI point up. But the candle that represents the EMA upward crossover is a red candle(Bear), would you still go long for that trend?

    Thanks

  • lissyking

    Hey Pip, quick question

    Suppose you are looking at the 4HR chart for the trend of the day, and there is an EMA upward cross over and the RSI point up. But the candle that represents the EMA upward crossover is a red candle(Bear), would you still go long for that trend?

    Thanks

  • lissyking

    Also, when you look at the news event that are coming out, do you only pay attention to the RED flag impact news? Thanks dude.

  • lissyking

    Also, when you look at the news event that are coming out, do you only pay attention to the RED flag impact news? Thanks dude.

  • Inkedsphynx

    Pip Surfer, I have a question for you. If your charting package does not give you the ability to automatically have trend change candles appear, how do you determine which candle signals a trend change? I find with this pair lately I’ve had a hard time determining what the trend is on such a small time frame.

  • Inkedsphynx

    Pip Surfer, I have a question for you. If your charting package does not give you the ability to automatically have trend change candles appear, how do you determine which candle signals a trend change? I find with this pair lately I’ve had a hard time determining what the trend is on such a small time frame.

  • GoGetta

    I got a ?. This morning I got a buy signal at the close of the the candle at 7am this morning for a long position. I entered at the open of the 7:15am candle(1.51145). Stop-loss was set 1.50745. I was stopped out. With a loss of 40 pips. Got another buy signal at 8:30am candle with the GDP info for a long position. Entered at the close of that candle at 8:30am(1.52004). Stop-loss was set at 40 pips away. Trailed to lock in profits at 1.52204, and again 1.52304 and was stopped out at that point. Making up 30 pips of the 40 pips I lost at 7:30am. But yet I missed out on about a 100 or so pips at 1.5360. What can I do to help myself on letting my profits ride a little more so I can capture more pips. I mean, I’ve only been trading a live account for about a month with a total of 17 trades. And out of those 17, I lost 5 of them. Leaving my percentage at 68% on the winning side. I am profitable at this point. But I have a habit of stopping myself out early on a trade which is making me miss out on more pips on the profitable side. Can you HELP, PLEASE!!!!!!! LOL!!!!! Or can somebody else who reads these comments HELP!!!!!!!

  • GoGetta

    I got a ?. This morning I got a buy signal at the close of the the candle at 7am this morning for a long position. I entered at the open of the 7:15am candle(1.51145). Stop-loss was set 1.50745. I was stopped out. With a loss of 40 pips. Got another buy signal at 8:30am candle with the GDP info for a long position. Entered at the close of that candle at 8:30am(1.52004). Stop-loss was set at 40 pips away. Trailed to lock in profits at 1.52204, and again 1.52304 and was stopped out at that point. Making up 30 pips of the 40 pips I lost at 7:30am. But yet I missed out on about a 100 or so pips at 1.5360. What can I do to help myself on letting my profits ride a little more so I can capture more pips. I mean, I’ve only been trading a live account for about a month with a total of 17 trades. And out of those 17, I lost 5 of them. Leaving my percentage at 68% on the winning side. I am profitable at this point. But I have a habit of stopping myself out early on a trade which is making me miss out on more pips on the profitable side. Can you HELP, PLEASE!!!!!!! LOL!!!!! Or can somebody else who reads these comments HELP!!!!!!!