Well, that was quick! We did see volatility in EUR/JPY during the afternoon Asia session, enough to push the pair higher, but not enough to trigger my short orders before dropping…doh! Since the pair didn’t play out exactly as I hoped, I closed my open orders.
Before you move on, for those who are not familiar with my framework, signals, setups, or acronyms, please visit my discretionary trading framework post.
The chart says it all folks as the market sells off euro across the board on news that the finance ministers were unable to snap free the deadlock on the second Greek rescue plan. According to Bloomberg, it looks like this whole mess may drag on until July… what the heezy!?!
Anyhow, with the pair already on it’s way down, it doesn’t look like I’ll get to short at the price I want. I have closed my open orders. No trade.
A tough missed trade as it was missed by less than 10 pips, but I think my chosen entry level was still the right one that made the most sense to me. I will continue to watch the euro with this new development and see if I can pick out new short opportunities. As always, stay tuned on my Twitter and Facebook pages for new ideas!
Trade Idea: 2011-06-14 23:40 ET
Good evening! After doing a quick scan of the charts, I saw a potential technical setup that meshes well with my weak euro bias. Is there an opportunity to grab some pips in EUR/JPY to the downside?
Fundamentally, I’m short baised on the euro as we still don’t see an agreement amongst Eurozone leaders on the Greek rescue plan. As long as there is no agreement or plan to help Greece avoid potential default, I don’t think there will be many new buyers into the euro.
Technically, I see a day trade setup on the EUR/JPY 15m chart above. We saw a rising trendline form along the rising bottoms and eventually broken to the downside. This pattern indicates to me that sellers are back in control of this market. For me, I think the best setup is to go short if the pair were to rise and retest that broken trendline, so that’s what I’m going to do. My stop will be about a quarter of the daily average true range of about 140 pips, and if the pair does go my way I will target the bottom of today’s daily range, 115.50, which also happens to be a minor psychological level.
Because this is a day trade, I’m going to notch my risk down to 0.50% of my account. Here’s what I am going to do:
Short EUR/JPY at 116.25, stop at 116.60, pt at 115.55
Remember always to limit risk to no more than 1% of an account and to set position sizes accordingly.
This trade structure gives me a potential 2:1 return-on-risk and with an action packed forex calender today, we could see enough volatility to get me there.
Since this is a day trade, I’ll be watching this setup closely, so be sure to stay tuned by following me on Twitter and Facebook!