Good afternoon forex friends! My, oh my how time flies as we head into April, which means Q1 2013 is now in the books. As always, it’s that time again where I take a moment to look back at how I did from January through March.
Here are the basic numbers:
No. of Trade ideas: 10
Trades Triggered: 8
No. of Wins: 4
No. of Losses: 4
Trades ideas not Triggered: 2
Average gain per winning trade: +0.63%
Average loss per losing trade: -0.45%
Q1 Blog Performance: +0.93%
Quickly looking at the basic numbers, I definitely had a much better bottom line number than my Q4 performance. As I mentioned in that post, over 2012 I did a pretty good job with my directional biases but a pretty poor job with trade management. This quarter, I did a much better job of managing my trades; not only by cutting a couple of the losers off before hitting my max unit of risk, but also maximizing some of my winners by getting more than 1 unit of risk on 3 out of 4 of my wins (my average risk per trade was 0.53%).
Also, in 2012 I missed a lot of potential winners by trying to get in at the “perfect” price (mostly retracements of a trend). This quarter, I think I’ve done a better job managing my entries, but I still did miss two trades that did end up being winners (day trade USD/CHF short & a Cable short).
Overall, I’m happy for the positive performance and beating one of my benchmarks (Barclay Hedge Discretionary Traders Index: +0.85% YTD), but I’m also a little disappointed given the big trends that we saw in the first quarter of 2013; mainly the huge downtrends in value of the British Pound and Japanese Yen. The British Pound fell a little over 8% against the US Dollar in 2013, while the Japanese Yen lost a whopping 24% to the Greenback–yowzas!
In hindsight, I think I should have had a bigger gain given the fundamental themes and technical setups driving the markets, but the one thing that held me back was how uncomfortable I am with holding positions over the weekend. If the current market behavior and themes hold, I’ll look to adapt that trade management rule going forward.
Well, that’s it folks; one quarter down and three to go for 2013. Hopefully, I can keep up the positive performance, and with themes like Kuroda’s change to BOJ monetary policy and a possible shift in global economic strength, the trends may continue. Stay tuned by following me on Twitter and Facebook and thanks for checking out my blog!