Reflecting on My 3rd Quarter Blog Performance

Good morning forex friends! With September come and gone, we’re now in the final stretch of 2012–where in the heezy did time go!? But before I get down and dirty with the final months of the year, I gotta do a quick reflection on my third quarter blog performance.

Let’s take a look at the stats for all my closed trades (not including my open USD/CHF trade):

No. of Trade ideas: 10
Trades Triggered: 6
No. of Wins: 4
No. of Losses: 2
Trades ideas not Triggered: 5
Win%: 66.6%
Average gain per winning trade: +0.64%
Average loss per losing trade: -0.68%
Net gain: +1.20% (+1.17% YTD)

I was able to bounce back from my less-than-desirable second quarter performance, thanks to a nice four-win streak between July to August. The markets were relatively bearish on risk thanks to the European Crisis, which made sense to buy some Greenbacks to play the safe-haven sentiment, which I did. But my most profitable trade from that run came from a simple range play on USD/JPY that lead to a +1.06% gain.

Unfortunately, I ended the quarter on a sour note with a pair of USD/JPY trades that were plays off of the major events of September, the second of which was particularly frustrating as I closed manually before the position eventually went my way for a very nice profit.

So, the good. While I still have issues with wanting to get in at a better price–I missed three trades on USD/CHF that ended up profitable by waiting for a retracement that never came–I did scale into more trades this quarter. And overall, my assessment of the fundamental landscape has lead me to the correct directional bias in 7 out of 10 of my trade ideas.

The bad. “Patience” is a characteristic I still need to work on, especially with letting my trades develop and letting the winning trades run. Also, I think scaling into my trades has worked well in relieving the pressure to be perfect, so I’ll look to continue to use that entry technique with most of my trades in the future.

Overall, I’m glad that my blog trades ended up positive and that I’m beating one of my benchmarks (the Barclay Hedge Currency Traders Index is up +1.10% YTD and the Barclay Hedge Discretionary Traders Index is up +3.21% YTD), but I know I could have done better if I had been a bit more focused (I took a few weeks off at the end of August).

So, my goal to end 2012, is to stay focused on the process and limit my trade management mistakes, and most importantly, to stay patient. Hopefully, that all means being profitable at the end of the year.

Thanks for checking out my blog…good luck and good trading!

  • Ted Jackson

    Is this a summary of only the trades that you have posted on this
    website, or all of your trades this quarter? The reason that I am asking
    is that I see the postings of the FXMen which show only 1 to 2 percent
    gains in a quarter, sometimes a year, which is extremely low. You would
    be better off putting your money in an IRA or some other investment.

    • pipcrawler

      Hello Ted… my goal with trading is to keep risk low, aim for low beta and achieve consistent gains. That approach will most likely not get me rockstar gains of +10%/year and yes, there are other ways to make a bigger profit in today’s investment landscape. But if I’m beating my benchmarks (Barclay Hedge CTA index) and I’m profitable when the broad market is having down years, then I’m happy. And if I ever move down that deep dark road that is money management, I’ll probably attract plenty of investors looking for steady, low volatility gains.
      My blog is a record of my live trades, but I do keep a demo to test new strategies and trade ideas, and practice different trading techniques.