Trade Closed: 2013-06-28 9:39
Good morning forex friends! It was a pretty quiet week relative to the past few weeks, but it was a positive one for USD/JPY bulls. And with the weekend quickly approaching, it’s time to adjust to avoid weekend risk.
Before you move on, for those who are not familiar with my framework, signals, setups, or acronyms, please visit my discretionary trading framework blog.
The first half of the week was a bit of a snoozer for the pair, and it wasn’t until risk demand rose in Asia and some risk-bullish Fed comments (NY Fed President Dudley and Fed Governor Powell talked down the possibility of stimulus reduction) came to pass that the pair started to go into bullish mode, typically when it is viewed as a proxy for general risk taking vehicle. Besides that, we saw positive US and Japanese data throughout the week to help give traders who are bullish on risk a chance to play their views through USD/JPY.
Total: +126 pips/ +0.29% gain
In retrospect, there’s probably two things I could have done differently. The first is to go in at market after the FOMC statement rather than think we may see a pullback. It was a pretty big, sentiment shifting event in which the market wholly jumped into without looking back in that session. The important thing to remember is to better recognize these game changers better going forward. The second is that a few sessions after the event is when I should have expected a pullback, after the initial event reaction was fully priced in. I actually think I did a good job of this by creating a scaling in plan rather than going in full position at market, but I should have had more conviction and waited until that retest of 97.00.
Overall, I was spot on with direction and gauging volatility, but as always, the trade management could use a bit more work. At the end of the day though, I’m glad to end what was a pretty rough quarter with a decently executed trade and a win.
Well, it’s Friday–time to rest, relax, and review my trading for the week (and quarter)! I hope you all get a chance to do the same. Thanks for checking out my blog, stay tuned, and have a great weekend!
Entry Adjustment: 2013-06-24 13:05 ET
My views on the current market drivers are still the same as last week: USD strength on the recent FOMC announcement of the plan of drawing down the bond buying program. And with very few tier 1 US and Japanese events on the forex calendar this week, I think the probability of a big sentiment shift against the Greenback is low. So, instead of waiting to see if we’ll see a retest at 95.80, I decided to scale into a position, starting at market and another if we do see a pullback to a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent swing move. Here’s what I am doing:
Cancelled long orders at 95.80.
Long half position at market (97.74), stop at 94.85, max profit target at 100.00
Long half position at 96.35, stop at 94.85, max profit target at 100.00
I’m still only risking 1.00% of my account with this new this trade structure, and I have a potential reward-to-risk ratio of about 1.35:1. If the trade does go my way without pulling back to my second entry order, I do look to scale in another small position and trail my stop to help maximize my reward and reduce my risk. Of course, anything can happen in the forex markets, so if the story changes I’ll be sure to reassess and adjust quickly if necessary. Stay tuned by following me on Twitter and Facebook!
Trade Idea: 2013-06-19 17:10 ET
Good afternoon forex friends! What a day for the Dollar as the markets react to the highly anticipated FOMC monetary policy decision today! The reaction has setup a simple, consolidation break formation on the USD/JPY; time for the longer-term rally to resume?
In today’s statement, the FOMC kept interest rates and the bond purchasing program as-is, also raising the economic outlook and lowering the inflation outlook for 2014. The big driver of the US Dollar rally was the statement that if the incoming data is broadly consistent with this positive forecast, moderating the pace of bond purchases would be appropriate sometime this year, and that they may even end purchases mid-next year. Boom! Of course, Bernanke made it absolutely clear that any future Fed action would be data dependent, but for now traders are taking it as a cue to unload risk. This is short-term bullish for the Dollar, which is why I’m looking at USD/JPY.
I like the USD/JPY to play my long USD bias because of the massive bond purchasing program Japan just started this year. Also, we recently saw a massive Yen rally after last week’s disappointing Bank of Japan meeting, a move that is probably full priced in by now. The divergence in monetary policy outlook favors the Greenback for now, and it may be time for USD/JPY to bounce back into the longer-term trend.
On the smaller timeframe chart above, we can see the pair just broke out of its consolidation pattern that goes back to last Thursday. I am a bit cautious of going at market because Asia and Europe have yet to price in the FOMC event, and the fact that BOJ Governor Kuroda will be speaking on Friday. So, I look to set my orders at the broken area of resistance, with a pretty wide stop to play a longer-term swing on what could be a sentiment shifting moment for currencies this year. Here’s what I am going to do:
I’m only risking 1.00% of my account on this one, and with this trade structure, I have a potential reward-to-risk ratio of about 1.70:1. If the trade is triggered and does go my way, I do look to scale in small positions and trail my stop to help maximize my reward and reduce my risk. Of course, anything can happen in the forex markets, so if the story changes I’ll be sure to reassess and adjust quickly if necessary. Stay tuned by following me on Twitter and Facebook!