Pick of the Day: USD/JPY – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2008-12-07 11:50

My trade was closed at the end of day on Friday as USD/JPY rallied back up to my adjusted stop at 92.60.

1st Half: +100 pips
2nd Half: +400 pips
Total: +2.5% gain

Nice pip count last week, let’s see how I do this week as we see more data on the global economy released and some central bank speak in the line up for the week. Stay tuned!

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Trade Adjustment: 2008-12-04 17:36

What’s Up! Looks like its been a good week for my trade as we continue to see USD selling in USD/JPY. With the pair hitting lows just above 92.00, it’s time to make adjustments ahead of tomorrow’s US Non-Farm Payroll reports.

Adjusting stop to 92.60 on remaining position to lock in +400 pips. Will continue hold position and trail my stops.

So, holding for now, and I expect more risk aversion as we may see more weak employment data out of the US. We see tons of fast market action around this report, so please be cautious when making trades around this news event. Stay tuned!

Trade Update: 2008-12-03 00:21

It has been a slow start for the month of December as volatility remains low so far this week in the USD/JPY. This may be attributed to a few factors such as US jobs data coming up and the fact we’re also going into the holiday season. I have a feeling a lot of traders are on the sidelines, away from the desks on holiday and probably avoiding taking any more risk before the end of the year.

We do have ADP jobs and ISM services data coming up in the US session, but with data already expected to be pretty bad, I don’t see any major break outs unless we see a huge surprise.

I look to continue to hold my remaining open position for now fur fundamental and sentiment reasons. We may see a breakout eventually, but that may not come until the end of the week when we see US Non-Farm payrolls data on Friday.

Stay tuned!

Trade Adjustment: 2008-12-01 09:36

Good morning! I hope everyone had a great weekend. I sure did seeing friends and family over the holiday, but it’s time to get back to work! I looks like traders are back as well as we saw more selling in USD/JPY at the beginning of this week’s trading. The market actually hit a low around 93.55, before retracing back above 94.00. I have decided to keep it open and adjust my stop.

Adjusting stop on remaining position to 94.60 to lock 200 pips. Will continue to trail stop by 100 pips.

Stay tuned and have a great trading week!

Trade Update: 2008-11-25 13:11

Good afternoon friends! Well we saw weak US GDP data push the Greenback lower against the Yen this morning, enough to hit my first profit target at 95.60. Half of my position was closed and now it’s time to move some stops around.

Half position closed at 95.60. Adjusting stop on remaining position to breakeven at 96.60. Will trail stop by 100 pips and continue to target 94.00.

I’ll make a decision if my trade hits 94.00, on whether I’ll keep it open and try to ride it lower. Stay tuned!

Trade Idea: 2008-11-24 20:46

PoD Chart

Looks like we only have time for maybe one trade this week as we approach “Turkey Day” here in the US and USD/JPY may be a winner. Quite a few technical setups going on indicating we may see a reversal back to the downtrend. Let’s take a look.

First, we have the doji candle forming at the last four hour candle, indicating indecision and maybe a possible reversal. Also, the stochastics are indicating that the pair maybe in overbought conditions; another possible reversal signal.

Fundamentals are still in the dumpers across the globe, especially in the US as existing home sales disappoints once again. So, I expect today’s rally in risk to be another opportunity for the USD/JPY bears. I think I’ll play along with them too. Here’s what I’d like to do:

Shorting USD/JPY at market (96.60), stop at 97.60, pt1 at 95.60, pt2 at 94.00

Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly

We’ve got the Bank of Japan monthly report and US GDP data tomorrow, so it should be a lively day in the currency markets. Be cautious as we head into the holidays as liquidity dries up and price action tends to get choppy. Stay tuned!

42 comments

  1. geriko

    im confused. Im looking at the 4hr chart on metatrader, but my chart is not showing the doji candle.overall the contour of the pattern is the same,but there are inconsistancies in many of the actual candles. Would appreciate any wisdom on this.Thanks

    Reply
  2. geriko

    im confused. Im looking at the 4hr chart on metatrader, but my chart is not showing the doji candle.overall the contour of the pattern is the same,but there are inconsistancies in many of the actual candles. Would appreciate any wisdom on this.Thanks

    Reply
  3. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Thanks for the comments everyone! geriko – different charting packages get their data from different feeds and some mark new candles at different times. So, prices may be off by a few pips compared to another charting program or they may start a 4hour candle at 11am instead of 12pm for example. The doji candle was a nice cherry topping, but the bulk of the trade was based on the trend, sentiment, and fundamental environment. I hope this helps!

    Reply
  4. therbcoe

    Mozzletoff to anyone who took anyone else who took this trade.
    I was a little worried when price bounced back up and the bounce point was before TP1. Good to see that there’s still a downward bias.
    RBCOE

    Reply
  5. julian

    Im still in this trade. I only took one position and have been trailing my stop loss. Guaranteed 100 pips now as stop loss at point 1 so im a happy chappy. Of course I would love to see this baby keep dropping so i`m hoping point 2 is on the horizons ! Another great call pc.. Thanks again

    Reply
  6. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Thanks for the comments everyone! geriko – different charting packages get their data from different feeds and some mark new candles at different times. So, prices may be off by a few pips compared to another charting program or they may start a 4hour candle at 11am instead of 12pm for example. The doji candle was a nice cherry topping, but the bulk of the trade was based on the trend, sentiment, and fundamental environment. I hope this helps!

    Reply
  7. therbcoe

    Mozzletoff to anyone who took anyone else who took this trade.

    I was a little worried when price bounced back up and the bounce point was before TP1. Good to see that there’s still a downward bias.

    RBCOE

    Reply
  8. julian

    Im still in this trade. I only took one position and have been trailing my stop loss. Guaranteed 100 pips now as stop loss at point 1 so im a happy chappy. Of course I would love to see this baby keep dropping so i`m hoping point 2 is on the horizons ! Another great call pc.. Thanks again

    Reply
  9. geriko

    Hi Pipceawler….thanks for getting back. Ive paper traded your advice for the past three weeks and wished that it had been hard money. it&ll be just my luck that when I go rt that will be the one that goes against you. In an industry where there are so many sharks trying to reach into my hip pocket its refreshing to find someone like you that is giving good advice to those of us who want to learn.Integrity is a rare thing in the world these days.And i and im sure many others appreciate it.
    With regard to my earlier question re candlestick inconsistency between different charting packages, Im a little confused. How can candles be relied upon if different charts are giving different readings? Thanks once again

    Reply
  10. geriko

    Hi Pipceawler….thanks for getting back. Ive paper traded your advice for the past three weeks and wished that it had been hard money. it&ll be just my luck that when I go rt that will be the one that goes against you. In an industry where there are so many sharks trying to reach into my hip pocket its refreshing to find someone like you that is giving good advice to those of us who want to learn.Integrity is a rare thing in the world these days.And i and im sure many others appreciate it.
    With regard to my earlier question re candlestick inconsistency between different charting packages, Im a little confused. How can candles be relied upon if different charts are giving different readings? Thanks once again

    Reply
  11. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Thanks for the comments everyone! Geriko – great question, and here’s my answer that probably only makes sense to me: doesn’t matter to me and let me explain why. If I did make the trade solely based on that one candle, and it matched every available charting software I had, does that mean that it is guaranteed the market will drop?? Nope. It’s just an indication that the market will PROBABLY reverse. Nothing is ever certain in the markets, and since it’s not guaranteed, I do not need to check it with other charting programs. I’ll create a plan for if it goes my way or against me, and that’s all I can do…right? That’s my belief and I hope it helps…

    Reply
  12. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Thanks for the comments everyone! Geriko – great question, and here’s my answer that probably only makes sense to me: doesn’t matter to me and let me explain why. If I did make the trade solely based on that one candle, and it matched every available charting software I had, does that mean that it is guaranteed the market will drop?? Nope. It’s just an indication that the market will PROBABLY reverse. Nothing is ever certain in the markets, and since it’s not guaranteed, I do not need to check it with other charting programs. I’ll create a plan for if it goes my way or against me, and that’s all I can do…right? That’s my belief and I hope it helps…

    Reply
  13. SmArTaLiCuS

    Hey Pipcrawler,
    Im new to Forex, but already I am developing a significant appreciation for it from the beautiful patterns that seem to emerge much moreso than in normal stock/index charts. That could just be something that fools me, but it seems that way.

    I have lots to learn, and I’m paper trading right now with Forex.com. But I’ve already found the usd/jpy, cad/jpy, aud/jpy, and eur/usd to be pretty good ones to work with. I just found your comment on yesterday’s movement in usd/jpy. And I was suspect that it might head down to under 95. It did not stay there long, but you were definitely able to catch the right signal! Other than the gravestone doji, what let you know that it was likely to take a dive to that target area? And what do you see it doing in the next couple of days (it’s currently around the 95.55 area).

    Any help would be greatly appreciated!

    Reply
  14. SmArTaLiCuS

    Hey Pipcrawler,
    Im new to Forex, but already I am developing a significant appreciation for it from the beautiful patterns that seem to emerge much moreso than in normal stock/index charts. That could just be something that fools me, but it seems that way.

    I have lots to learn, and I’m paper trading right now with Forex.com. But I’ve already found the usd/jpy, cad/jpy, aud/jpy, and eur/usd to be pretty good ones to work with. I just found your comment on yesterday’s movement in usd/jpy. And I was suspect that it might head down to under 95. It did not stay there long, but you were definitely able to catch the right signal! Other than the gravestone doji, what let you know that it was likely to take a dive to that target area? And what do you see it doing in the next couple of days (it’s currently around the 95.55 area).

    Any help would be greatly appreciated!

    Reply
  15. afish999

    pipcrawler, had my eye on this trade since the start of last week. Really enjoy your blog it not only makes me feel like i’m on the right track it also has taught me how to lock in pips which its the most important lesson i learn so far!
    monstertrader i think you have a better chance of that question answered in the forum. but if you read crawlers updates he has kept an order open. Which would lead me to believe that he thinks that the pair could trend lower. as i type this its hitting 93.2. hope you caught it!

    Reply
  16. afish999

    pipcrawler, had my eye on this trade since the start of last week. Really enjoy your blog it not only makes me feel like i’m on the right track it also has taught me how to lock in pips which its the most important lesson i learn so far!
    monstertrader i think you have a better chance of that question answered in the forum. but if you read crawlers updates he has kept an order open. Which would lead me to believe that he thinks that the pair could trend lower. as i type this its hitting 93.2. hope you caught it!

    Reply
  17. tylerbrownfx

    I’m still holding on to your trade from the 24th of November. I was in the process of deciding whether or not to go short on the usdjpy, then I saw your blog. Good call. :)

    Reply
  18. FXAddict

    Hi,
    I’m new to forex trading. Quick question: for stops and target, do you use market order or limit order? Thks!

    Reply
  19. tylerbrownfx

    I’m still holding on to your trade from the 24th of November. I was in the process of deciding whether or not to go short on the usdjpy, then I saw your blog. Good call. :)

    Reply
  20. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Thanks again for the comments! I really appreciate everyone stopping by! Monstertrader – looks like it hit 92.90! FXAddict – I use limit orders…I don’t know about you, but I don’t like to sit in front of a computer all day. :)

    Reply
  21. FXAddict

    Hi,
    I’m new to forex trading. Quick question: for stops and target, do you use market order or limit order? Thks!

    Reply
  22. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Thanks again for the comments! I really appreciate everyone stopping by! Monstertrader – looks like it hit 92.90! FXAddict – I use limit orders…I don’t know about you, but I don’t like to sit in front of a computer all day. :)

    Reply
  23. Helltopia

    Oh man… i never should have jumped ships early on this rock!
    I was happy as a bird when it hit 94, and now its all the way down to 92.16!
    I’ll join you on the way back up when we start buying this beauty again ;)

    If i ever bump into you at a pub Pipcrawler, I know whos buying the beer! =)

    Anyhows, great call! Cheers!

    Reply
  24. LoboTrader

    Pipcrawler: I must follow your trades always, I don’t know what happens but when I enter to the market the trend changes inmediatly, maybe the people of the FOREX world are attentive to what I do and go away in the opposite direction rapidly.

    Greatings and Congratulation

    P.D. I am a pupil of the babypips schol and have repeated all the course three times.

    Reply
  25. Helltopia

    Oh man… i never should have jumped ships early on this rock!
    I was happy as a bird when it hit 94, and now its all the way down to 92.16!
    I’ll join you on the way back up when we start buying this beauty again ;)

    If i ever bump into you at a pub Pipcrawler, I know whos buying the beer! =)

    Anyhows, great call! Cheers!

    Reply
  26. LoboTrader

    Pipcrawler: I must follow your trades always, I don’t know what happens but when I enter to the market the trend changes inmediatly, maybe the people of the FOREX world are attentive to what I do and go away in the opposite direction rapidly.

    Greatings and Congratulation

    P.D. I am a pupil of the babypips schol and have repeated all the course three times.

    Reply

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