Pick of the Day: USD/JPY – Close Trade

Close Trade: 2008-06-03 15:20

Looks like I’m going to have to shut this trade down as Bernanke’s comments has signaled an end to the rate cuts and the Fed’s focus on the US Dollar weakness. This should support the Greenback, at least in the short term, which doesn’t bode so well for our trade.

Close short USD/JPY at market (105.00).

Total: -100 pips/ -0.50% loss

Trade Update: 2008-06-02 08:45

We have been holding onto this trade for a little over a week now, and after being unable to break resistance near 105.70 (and stopping us out), the pair has fallen today on risk aversion.

It appears risk aversion is on play today after Bradford & Bingley Plc, the U.K.’s biggest mortgage lender to landlords, said it needs to raise more capital because of “widening bad-debt provisions.” So, more credit concerns has brought risk appetites down, including carry trades.

USD/JPY is back below 105.00, and with the economic calendar pretty full this week, we may see a further decline if data continues to weak. I will hold onto continue this position and closely watch this weeks data.

Stay tuned and good luck!

Trade Idea: 2008-05-22 11:42

PoD Chart

It looks like the market is giving us another opportunity to short USD/JPY again as the Greenback finds some legs after today’s positive US initial claims data.

While we saw positive US data today, I still feel that the economy has a long way to go before we see any kind of improvement from the fallout of the credit crunch. According to the FOMC meeting minutes, the Fed agrees with me and I think traders will be short bias on the Greenback for sometime to come, even if the Fed rate increases have stopped.

I used a Fibonacci retracement tool to find possible resistance points, and I like the 104.00 area as it lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. I’m going to short at market (104.00). I’m also going to make this a longer term trade with wider stops, and adding trailing stops if we hit our first profit target.

Short USD/JPY at market (104.00), stop at 106.00, pt1 at 102.00, pt2 at 100.00

Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

Stay tuned to updates, good luck, and good trading!

27 comments

  1. avedis1

    pipcrawler, once the 1st profit is hit, how do you use your trailing stop? 50 pips, 100 pips? appreciate your comments, Avi

    Reply
  2. avedis1

    pipcrawler, once the 1st profit is hit, how do you use your trailing stop? 50 pips, 100 pips? appreciate your comments, Avi

    Reply
  3. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    If we do hit pt1 imma do a 100 pips trailing stop… thanks for the comment and checking my blog out avedis1!

    Reply
  4. demontez

    Pip,
    i am in on this trade as well as i got in at 103.80 going down. It is looking good so far but i am not sure if it is going to hit the 102.00 level as it might retrace down to the previous days low which is at the 62% retracement of 102.80.But this are my views as you are the master and i am the student. Keep in touch.

    Reply
  5. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Master?? Me?? haha… thanks for your input demontez. Much appreciated. If your analysis tells ya we may see resistance at 102.80, then maybe you should take some off the table there…remember that the purpose of my blog is just to share my thoughts in hopes to help others learn to trade for themselves, so trade the way that’s best and most comfortable for you… good luck and good trading buddy!

    Reply
  6. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    If we do hit pt1 imma do a 100 pips trailing stop… thanks for the comment and checking my blog out avedis1!

    Reply
  7. demontez

    Pip,
    i am in on this trade as well as i got in at 103.80 going down. It is looking good so far but i am not sure if it is going to hit the 102.00 level as it might retrace down to the previous days low which is at the 62% retracement of 102.80.But this are my views as you are the master and i am the student. Keep in touch.

    Reply
  8. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Master?? Me?? haha… thanks for your input demontez. Much appreciated. If your analysis tells ya we may see resistance at 102.80, then maybe you should take some off the table there…remember that the purpose of my blog is just to share my thoughts in hopes to help others learn to trade for themselves, so trade the way that’s best and most comfortable for you… good luck and good trading buddy!

    Reply
  9. Piphacker

    Hi PipCrawler …this really was a very good trade call… If i was there than i may enter’s on 103.86 …Cong. On your +92 Pip’s so far…
    PipHacker!!!

    Reply
  10. Piphacker

    Hi PipCrawler …this really was a very good trade call… If i was there than i may enter’s on 103.86 …Cong. On your +92 Pip’s so far…
    PipHacker!!!

    Reply
  11. rod_falcon

    Hey PipCrawler, good one! Keep it coming. I am on this trade from 104.35 (i waited for the 61.8% retracement). Being a longer term trade (which I like), probably we should let this one run for a bit longer than usual, until it hits pt1 at least. Is that right?

    Reply
  12. rod_falcon

    Hey PipCrawler, good one! Keep it coming. I am on this trade from 104.35 (i waited for the 61.8% retracement). Being a longer term trade (which I like), probably we should let this one run for a bit longer than usual, until it hits pt1 at least. Is that right?

    Reply
  13. demontez

    Hello Pip,
    Any updates on this trade position.Do you see it achieving any of the profit targets????

    Reply
  14. demontez

    Hello Pip,
    Any updates on this trade position.Do you see it achieving any of the profit targets????

    Reply
  15. demontez

    Hello Pip,
    Any updates on this trade position.Do you see it achieving any of the profit targets????

    Reply
  16. demontez

    Hello Pip,
    Any updates on this trade position.Do you see it achieving any of the profit targets????

    Reply
  17. demontez

    Hello Pip,
    Any updates on this trade position.Do you see it achieving any of the profit targets????

    Reply
  18. demontez

    Hello Pip,
    Any updates on this trade position.Do you see it achieving any of the profit targets????

    Reply
  19. demontez

    Pip,
    How is it going? do you have any updates on this trade? As it seems to be running out of steam as the Bulls are out in a blast!!!!

    Reply
  20. demontez

    Hello Pip,
    Do you have any updates on this trade as it seems to be loosing its momentum in achieving the first target.

    Reply
  21. demontez

    Pip,
    How is it going? do you have any updates on this trade? As it seems to be running out of steam as the Bulls are out in a blast!!!!

    Reply
  22. demontez

    Hello Pip,
    Do you have any updates on this trade as it seems to be loosing its momentum in achieving the first target.

    Reply
  23. Babysteps

    Hello pip,
    forex not easy at all, lost much in first 3 motnhs, this my last trade in live,I will go back to demo.
    Please pipcrawler tell us ur current view i’m on short@104.72
    i see doji on 4H chart and next candle go down.
    Update plz, thanks for ur help

    Reply
  24. Babysteps

    Hello pip,
    forex not easy at all, lost much in first 3 motnhs, this my last trade in live,I will go back to demo.
    Please pipcrawler tell us ur current view i’m on short@104.72
    i see doji on 4H chart and next candle go down.
    Update plz, thanks for ur help

    Reply
  25. Babysteps

    Pip
    Update plz,Do u think it will go higher ?open another short?
    highest point today 105.89? could it go down to 102 or 103?

    Reply
  26. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Hey guys, sorry for the lack of updates… I’ve been away plus BabyPips has been doing some upgrades which has limited my access… I’ve update on the top, but in short, it looks like the pair was unable to break resistance around 105.70 and has dropped back below 105.00. I still like this trade as I think credit conditions and the economy still has a long way to go before things get better.

    Reply
  27. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Hey guys, sorry for the lack of updates… I’ve been away plus BabyPips has been doing some upgrades which has limited my access… I’ve update on the top, but in short, it looks like the pair was unable to break resistance around 105.70 and has dropped back below 105.00. I still like this trade as I think credit conditions and the economy still has a long way to go before things get better.

    Reply

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