Pick of the Day: USD/JPY – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2007-11-19 17:57

Good evening! Sorry about the late update, but me and a few of the FX-Men decided to take a last minute trip to the Trading Expo in Las Vegas! It was a great trip as we got to meet some great traders and take a chance to check out some what’s out there as far as Forex products! If you’re new and if you have an opportunity to check out an event like the Expo, I highly suggest you do because there’s no better way to learn than from another trader!

While we were away, our trade did manage to trigger on a quick move down the same day I posted the idea. It was enough to trigger our trade and hit our first profit target, but the pair retraced from there to close out our remaining position at break even.

1st Half: +50 pips
2nd Half: +00 pips
Total: +50 pips

So, we managed to lock in 50 pips. It looks like the pair bounced off of the 240 MA’s on the retracement and resumed its downtrend as it trades below the psychologically important level of 110.00. As equities continue to weaken look for the pair continue its decent as more risk aversion appears to be in the cards for USD/JPY in the short term. Well its great to be back, so stay tuned for a new trade idea later tonight!

Trade Idea: 2007-11-14 08:15

PoD Chart

Good morning! We have a nice Fibonacci setup that may get us back in the downward momentum in USD/JPY.

To support our short idea, we can see 240 MA’s trending lower, so a short may still be the high probability direction. Stochastics are showing short term overbought and may be turning at this point. Also, we can see a bearish bar at the 38% Fibonacci level showing seller took control at that point and that momentum may switch from the counter trend rally to the downside.

We do have economic events today with the US PPI and Retail Sales coming out very soon at 8:30 am EST. Inline or weaker numbers may support our trade as weaker inflation may steer the Feds focus a little more on economic growth. If we see weaker Retail Sales number, look for the US Dollar to move lower.

So, we will short below the previous bar’s low, with a wide stop, and we’ll see if we can retest recent lows.

Short USD/JPY at 110.50, stop at 111.50, pt1 at 110.00, pt2 at 109.00

If our position does reach 109.00, instead of closing position we will adjust stop on any remaining positions.

Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

Stay tuned for updates. Good luck and good trading!

12 comments

  1. vytran

    May i know what is your setting for 240 MA, I can see there are 3 blue lines that are trending down, look like a wave
    Thanks

    Reply
  2. vytran

    Sorry, i am newbie so i have another question
    1 First batch, u sold at 110.50, pair dropped to 110.00
    –> gain + 50 pips

    2. Second batch, you sold at 110.50, pair dropped to 110.00, retraced and reached stop loss at 111.50. Hence, you should have received 111.50 – 110.50=100 pips loss

    Hence
    First batch : +50
    Second batch : -100

    End up : net loss should be -50 pips

    Can you help elaborate on this? How did you get the +50 pips Thanks so much

    Reply
  3. vytran

    May i know what is your setting for 240 MA, I can see there are 3 blue lines that are trending down, look like a wave
    Thanks

    Reply
  4. vytran

    Sorry, i am newbie so i have another question
    1 First batch, u sold at 110.50, pair dropped to 110.00
    –> gain + 50 pips

    2. Second batch, you sold at 110.50, pair dropped to 110.00, retraced and reached stop loss at 111.50. Hence, you should have received 111.50 – 110.50=100 pips loss

    Hence
    First batch : +50
    Second batch : -100

    End up : net loss should be -50 pips

    Can you help elaborate on this? How did you get the +50 pips Thanks so much

    Reply
  5. vytran

    oops i have understood For second batch, you moved your stop loss to the break even point Hence batch 2 should break even

    Ehehe..sorry for taking such a long time to absorb this strategy

    CAn you kindly share with us how you set up the MA 240 which has 3 wavy blue lines?

    THanks heaps

    Reply
  6. vytran

    oops i have understood For second batch, you moved your stop loss to the break even point Hence batch 2 should break even

    Ehehe..sorry for taking such a long time to absorb this strategy

    CAn you kindly share with us how you set up the MA 240 which has 3 wavy blue lines?

    THanks heaps

    Reply
  7. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    The 240 MA’s are weighted moving averages set to the high low and close. If you don’t have a “weighted” settings, “exponential” settings will work fine. The idea is to get an average of prices over the past month on the 4hr chart. When applied to the Daily chart you can see the average of prices and the way its trending over the past year. I hope this helps.

    Reply
  8. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    The 240 MA’s are weighted moving averages set to the high low and close. If you don’t have a “weighted” settings, “exponential” settings will work fine. The idea is to get an average of prices over the past month on the 4hr chart. When applied to the Daily chart you can see the average of prices and the way its trending over the past year. I hope this helps.

    Reply

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