Pick of the Day: USD/CHF – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2008-06-10 00:13

Our trade was triggered and stopped out this morning as US Dollar strength continues to grow after Bernanke’s comments on inflation. My idea that the broken rising trendline and fibonacci retracement areas may hold as resistance didn’t pan out as USD/CHF managed to push through 1.0400.

Total: -75 pips/ -1.0% loss

So, we took a hit, but that’s all a part of the trading game, which is why money management is so crucial and helps us to “live to trade another day.” Stay tuned!

On a side note…Don’t forget to check out Freshpips.com! Forex news picked by Forex traders! Let’s help each other out find what moves the markets…See ya there!

Trade Idea: 2008-06-10 00:13

PoD Chart

We have a short trade setting up on USD/CHF as the pair continues to retrace higher after last week’s beat down of the US Dollar.

The rally in the Greenback has been fueled by positive housing data, weakening commodities, and commentary from Fed Chairman Bernanke on fighting inflation. Will the short term trend continue, or will we see a turn back lower, possibly on tomorrow’s US trade balance data? We’ll just have to wait and see…

On the chart, we can see the pair clearly moving higher after breaking lower on the rising trendline last week. Using the Fibonacci retracement tool, we can see the pair finding resistance at the 50% Fibonacci area and the rising, red trendline. So, we may see resistance in this area, and if the pair pops back higher to the 50% area, I think i will short there.

Short USD/CHF at 1.0335, stop at 1.0410, pt1 at 1.0260, pt2 at 1.0100

Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

Stay tuned for updates, good luck, and good trading!

14 comments

  1. demontez

    Hello Pip,
    Hope you had a nice weekend? Nice to have you back. i am in on this trade and watching closely as the position has opened. I thought on entering at the 62% retracement level which is 1.0379 but i will follow my teacher i.e (PIP).
    Thanks

    Reply
  2. demontez

    Hello Pip,
    Hope you had a nice weekend? Nice to have you back. i am in on this trade and watching closely as the position has opened. I thought on entering at the 62% retracement level which is 1.0379 but i will follow my teacher i.e (PIP).
    Thanks

    Reply
  3. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Another strong day for the Greenback has stopped us out. It looks like Bernanke came out with strong inflation comments earlier that hints at possible rate increases in the US. Looks like we’ll have to be US Dollar bullish in the short term…

    Reply
  4. demontez

    I was just going to write to you about this trade. Yes we have been hit. I had that gut feeling that this trade might not work because Happy pips trade blog on USD- CAD was hit.
    In case, i feel the US economy is picking up now in full blast regardless of any negative news out there and it is because of the comments by Bernanke. So any pair with the USD have to be very careful because it is likely going to a bullish momentum trend just like the USD/JPY.

    Reply
  5. demontez

    Pip,
    to show you how strong the momentum is on this trade. Look at the stochastic level when it retraces going up. It reached as high as 100% and the volatality below 5%

    Reply
  6. hellscreamer

    I opened my position at 1,405 , but it shacked me off when it hit 435 ( I closed by myself ). However I’m still very bearing on the dollar , so I’m still looking forward to a swing trade at 14xx area . The dollar should cool down by now since not much supporting it but Bernanke’s speak,
    if AU Employment Change comes out better than expected , the trend will get hit hard again like a snake !

    Reply
  7. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Another strong day for the Greenback has stopped us out. It looks like Bernanke came out with strong inflation comments earlier that hints at possible rate increases in the US. Looks like we’ll have to be US Dollar bullish in the short term…

    Reply
  8. demontez

    I was just going to write to you about this trade. Yes we have been hit. I had that gut feeling that this trade might not work because Happy pips trade blog on USD- CAD was hit.
    In case, i feel the US economy is picking up now in full blast regardless of any negative news out there and it is because of the comments by Bernanke. So any pair with the USD have to be very careful because it is likely going to a bullish momentum trend just like the USD/JPY.

    Reply
  9. demontez

    Pip,
    to show you how strong the momentum is on this trade. Look at the stochastic level when it retraces going up. It reached as high as 100% and the volatality below 5%

    Reply
  10. dreknar

    There were lessons to learn from this experience and this is valuable. I noticed the other indicators like MACD, Momentum and stockastics were indicating sort of bullish continue the up-trend. The next thing to do is now keep an eye on those and consider them for the next oportunity.

    Reply
  11. hellscreamer

    I opened my position at 1,405 , but it shacked me off when it hit 435 ( I closed by myself ). However I’m still very bearing on the dollar , so I’m still looking forward to a swing trade at 14xx area . The dollar should cool down by now since not much supporting it but Bernanke’s speak,
    if AU Employment Change comes out better than expected , the trend will get hit hard again like a snake !

    Reply
  12. dreknar

    There were lessons to learn from this experience and this is valuable. I noticed the other indicators like MACD, Momentum and stockastics were indicating sort of bullish continue the up-trend. The next thing to do is now keep an eye on those and consider them for the next oportunity.

    Reply

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