Trade Review: 2007-03-01 18:50
We saw massive data and money flowing left and right, and unfortunately for our trade, we didn’t see follow through until after the ISM Manufacturing data today. At 08:30 EST, Core PCE, Personal spending, and Personal income all came out dollar positive. This pushed the USD/CHF up enough to hit our long trigger, but the move reversed soon after. It moved enough to stop out our long position, hit our short trigger and bring our short position within 10 pips to profitability. Then ISM Manufacturing data surprised us all with the Index hitting 52.3 and Prices hitting a whopping 59.0! The dollar shot up soon as that news hit the wires and we were stopped out soon after.
Long: -30 pips
Short: -35 pips
Total: -65 pips
Trade Idea: 2007-02-28 23:50
With USD/CHF currently trading in a 25 pip range since the US close, I think we’ll see a strong move and breakout in the upcoming trading sessions. On both sides of the pair, we can make an argument to go long or short. It looks like carry trade liquidation fears have abated at the moment, so traders maybe getting ready to go long. On the short side of the arguement, we saw Leading Indicators out of Switzerland come out better than expected to 1.79 from 1.74.
Traders can go either way. We just need a catalyst, and US Core PCE and ISM manufacturing data may bring just that. I have a dollar short bias because of the recent weakness in US manufacturing data, but I will have a long trade idea just in case the Greenback is pleasantly surprised. Here we go:
Long USD/CHF at 1.2210, stop at 1.2180, pt at 1.2240
Short USD/CHF at 1.2160, stop at 1.2195, pt at 1.2135
Remember to never risk more that 1% of your account on any single trade, so please adjust your position sizes accordingly.
Good luck and good trading!