Pick of the Day: USD/CAD – Trade Close

Trade Closed: 2007-03-22 03:45

Second half of trade closed at break even.

1st half: +40 pips
2nd half: +00 pips
Total: +40 pips

Trade Update: 2007-03-21 14:45

The Federal Open Market Committee kept interest rates at 5.25% today and followed up with hawkish commentary with concerns on inflation. Now, you would think this would push the Greenback up, but we saw a broad based USD selloff as soon as the news was released.

Fortunately, we were short USD/CAD. Our trade actually hit pt1, but the market moved so fast some of you may have not been able to adjust your positions if you didn’t have limit orders. At the moment, the pair is trading around 1.1550, so you may have a chance again to close half of your position at 1.1540, if you wish to do so.

1st half: +40 pips
2nd half: Open

For those that did close half with a profit, please adjust the stops on your remaining position to breakeven to create a risk free trade. Good luck!

Trade Idea: 2007-03-20 23:45

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We saw a drop in USD/CAD today of about 160 pips which was sparked by stronger than expected Consumer Price Index numbers. Of course, this kills the idea that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates anytime soon and traders quickly priced this into the pair. It is possible that we may see further downside movement on this speculation, plus reports of strong economic data out of Canada continues as well as increased fiscal spending. Also, concerns of gasoline inventories before the summer driving season pushing up oil prices may be factored in.

Right now the pair is ranging as traders await key economic data later today; CAD Retail Sales at 8:30 am EST and the FOMC Interest Rate statement at 2:15 pm EST.

I am looking for the pair to break to the downside, but I also have an idea if the pair retraces yesterday’s strong move.

Short USD/CAD at 1.1680, stop at 1.1720, pt1 at 1.1640, pt2 at 1.1600

or

Short USD/CAD at 1.1580, stop at 1.1620, pt1 at 1.1540, pt2 at 1.1500

Please remember to never risk more that 1% of your account on any single trade, so please adjust your position sizes accordingly.

Good luck and good trading!