Pick of the Day: GBP/USD – Trade Closed

Trade Close: 2009-03-16 07:14

Boo!!! My trade was stopped out during the Asia trading session. It was a bit frustrating as I was in profit at the open of trading this week, but the Greenback is losing ground as the need for a “safe haven” falls. The falling trendline was broken and confidence is returning to the markets as Fed Chairman Bernanke states that “the recession is coming to an end this year.”

The Greenback is selling off and Cable hit my stop at 1.4150.

Total: -200 pips/ -1.0% loss

The long US Dollar trade seems a bit over done at the moment as everyone seems to be running to the US for safety. This may be a sentiment change, but I doubt it is as there are more projections for more bad economic data.

We do have the FOMC meeting this week, and after they announce their decisions, there tends to be a tendency for risk aversion. Let’s see how that goes and if there’s another opportunity for a high probability trade. Stay tuned!

Trade Update: 2009-03-12 21:34

Good evening! Cable rallied during the European/US trading session overlap and hitting highs for the day just below the 1.4000 handle. Price action is currently muted during the Asia trading session and holding below 1.4000.

Well, one more day to go before the end of the trading week and there are a couple of events to take heed of during the upcoming US trading session. We’ve got US Import Prices, Trade Balance, and Consumer sentiment data in the line up, and if we see weak data once again, we may see some risk aversion price action to close out the week.

Depending on how the markets play out tomorrow, I may reduce my risk going into the weekend by closing down part of my trade or all of it. Stay tuned!

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Trade Update: 2009-03-11 16:29

Good afternoon! Cable did retrace just a bit after my initial trade idea was posted, but dropped soon after. Looks like the current retracement on broad US Dollar weakness may give me another shot to jump in short at my predetermined entry levels.

I have decided to keep my open orders alive and see if they get triggered. The risk is that the current US Dollar weakness is based on the easing of the banking crisis, so we’ll have to see if that continues or if enough fear will return to traders and run to the Greenback once again.

Stay tuned and good luck!

Trade Idea: 2009-03-09 22:27

PoD Chart

What’s up! Cable broke below support during the European and US trading session overlap, and it looks like the markets have calmed down as we begin the Asian trading session. If the pair rallies, do we have a “support-turned-resistance” play setting up?

I think we do, and it would play nicely with the fundamentals as things look worse and worse across the globe everyday and bring on more risk aversion price action. This holds true in the UK as we see banks being taken over by the government and as well as quantitative easing policies taking place. Doesn’t look good for the Pound fundamentally, especially as the world flocks to the US Dollar during the economic crisis.

If we do see the pair rally back to the broken support, we may see resistance as traders may look for another opportunity to short the current environment. I have drawn a Fibonacci on the recent swing and the 50% retracement area lines up nicely with previous support. I will short there with my stop above the 61% Fibonacci retracement area. Here’s what I’m going to do:

Short GBP/USD at 1.3950, stop at 1.4150, pt1 at 1.3750, pt2 at 1.3550

Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

Plenty of data in the US this week, including Retail Sales and Trade Balance to push Cable around. Stay tuned for updates and adjustments!

  • camelman

    I am in with you on this trade. I just think it might just make it to the 38% (1.3906). Thanks for the idea pipcrawler.

  • bilal_shirazi

    Good Luck All

  • EDay

    When is this on? am I too late?

  • camelman

    I am in with you on this trade. I just think it might just make it to the 38% (1.3906). Thanks for the idea pipcrawler.

  • Gusmeran

    I’m in with you guys!
    I’ll put bigger amount with lower stop (1.4065)

  • bilal_shirazi

    Good Luck All

  • engin

    maybe it would turn 1.4072 to 1.3750 but pt2 is so optimistic thats just my opinion…

  • EDay

    When is this on? am I too late?

  • Gusmeran

    I’m in with you guys!
    I’ll put bigger amount with lower stop (1.4065)

  • engin

    maybe it would turn 1.4072 to 1.3750 but pt2 is so optimistic thats just my opinion…

  • julian

    engin, more detailed imput please.. i like to hear your comments and views

  • bilal_shirazi

    The trade has not triggered yet Gusmeran

  • julian

    eday, you are not too late, we are waiting for price to hit 1.3950.

  • donkab

    I’m new to this trade so will appreciate any input to help with forex trade. Thanks

  • donkab

    I’m using the practice trade. Do i buy at 1.3950? If so, when do i sell? Thanks

  • EDay

    owh no, Its going down now..shuld we short at 1.3795? kind of new here..

  • julian

    engin, more detailed imput please.. i like to hear your comments and views

  • PipWolf

    EDay,

    The trade has not been triggered. Don’t do anything. I doubt we’ll hit our entry price on this one, so Pipcrawler will probably cancel it soon. Be patient, there will always be other trading opportunities as long as you don’t throw away your money on bad trades.

  • julian

    donkab and eday… come on guys read the script here or else you will lose money. or else i hope your using a demo account…rules to remember, check the time of the post, then jot down the entry points , stop point and profit points. then check your chart to see where the price is in relation to the entry point. then you can either enter manually or set up an order…. entry for this trade is 1.3950 to go short (sell) and if you check your charts you will see that it never got as high as 1.3950 and has since fallen to 137.21. so basically we are still waiting.. it may come back to give us our entry or we may have missed the boat… im new too and trade live, if you two guys also trade live, please be careful and read the post carefully…

  • bilal_shirazi

    The trade has not triggered yet Gusmeran

  • julian

    eday, you are not too late, we are waiting for price to hit 1.3950.

  • donkab

    I’m new to this trade so will appreciate any input to help with forex trade. Thanks

  • donkab

    I’m using the practice trade. Do i buy at 1.3950? If so, when do i sell? Thanks

  • EDay

    owh no, Its going down now..shuld we short at 1.3795? kind of new here..

  • PipWolf

    EDay,

    The trade has not been triggered. Don’t do anything. I doubt we’ll hit our entry price on this one, so Pipcrawler will probably cancel it soon. Be patient, there will always be other trading opportunities as long as you don’t throw away your money on bad trades.

  • julian

    donkab and eday… come on guys read the script here or else you will lose money. or else i hope your using a demo account…rules to remember, check the time of the post, then jot down the entry points , stop point and profit points. then check your chart to see where the price is in relation to the entry point. then you can either enter manually or set up an order…. entry for this trade is 1.3950 to go short (sell) and if you check your charts you will see that it never got as high as 1.3950 and has since fallen to 137.21. so basically we are still waiting.. it may come back to give us our entry or we may have missed the boat… im new too and trade live, if you two guys also trade live, please be careful and read the post carefully…

  • EDay

    hehe..yea..I think I just wait and see, its better if you all put the posting time so easy for us..hehe..well patient EDay..patient..

  • EDay

    hehe..yea..I think I just wait and see, its better if you all put the posting time so easy for us..hehe..well patient EDay..patient..

  • bilal_shirazi

    PipCrawler, what are your thoughts on this trade triggering?

  • pipsprof.

    \This trade will never trigger,its too late,You guys should have been abit flexible and short at 1.3835,I got in there and made a hundred pips,and have adjusted to breakeven now.we dont always have to copy pipcrawler trade for trade,its right to use our brains too,just my 2cent advice.still a newbee though!

  • alexpksilver

    Hello pipsprof, I went short at 1.3850 because of a Reversal Pattern formation (Shooting Star candle) in 4h chart. You say you have entered at 1.3835. Why did you enter??? Instinct? Lucky? Trading plan? if so, please argument your choices… We are not “playing” forex…just my 0,1cent advice!

  • bilal_shirazi

    PipCrawler, what are your thoughts on this trade triggering?

  • pipsprof.

    \This trade will never trigger,its too late,You guys should have been abit flexible and short at 1.3835,I got in there and made a hundred pips,and have adjusted to breakeven now.we dont always have to copy pipcrawler trade for trade,its right to use our brains too,just my 2cent advice.still a newbee though!

  • Pipcrawler

    Thanks for the comments everyone! I’ve updated my thoughts above. I don’t know if we will see sustained flows away from the US Dollar, but I hardly think we are out of the woods as far as the global recession.

    Pipprof…. you are right! In my blog posts, I am just sharing what I am doing. Sometimes you just have to go with a plan you are comfortable with. There’s more than one way to trade the markets and catch some pips! Hopefully we can get some! Good luck!

  • alexpksilver

    Hello pipsprof, I went short at 1.3850 because of a Reversal Pattern formation (Shooting Star candle) in 4h chart. You say you have entered at 1.3835. Why did you enter??? Instinct? Lucky? Trading plan? if so, please argument your choices… We are not “playing” forex…just my 0,1cent advice!

  • Pipcrawler

    Thanks for the comments everyone! I’ve updated my thoughts above. I don’t know if we will see sustained flows away from the US Dollar, but I hardly think we are out of the woods as far as the global recession.

    Pipprof…. you are right! In my blog posts, I am just sharing what I am doing. Sometimes you just have to go with a plan you are comfortable with. There’s more than one way to trade the markets and catch some pips! Hopefully we can get some! Good luck!

  • aokmanga

    price triggered finally!!

  • julian

    and now lets hope she falls from grace and doesn`t come back untill we safely have some pips safely
    in the bank !!

  • PoundPip

    Hi Everyone,

    Has anyone noticed a correlation between the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) and the forex of the usd pair. When the Dow goes up the USD goes down against other currency pairs and when the Dow goes up then the USD strengthens across currency pairs.

    On the daily Dow chart. The Dow has put in a reversal and is now going up with the slow stockhastic only after coming out of the oversold region. It seems that the Dow is going to continue advancing which means the USD will continue to weaken. I think cable is going to go back up to 1.49 (The sloping line in the triangle).

    Well thats my 2 cents. :-)

  • aokmanga

    price triggered finally!!

  • julian

    and now lets hope she falls from grace and doesn`t come back untill we safely have some pips safely
    in the bank !!

  • PoundPip

    Hi Everyone,

    Has anyone noticed a correlation between the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) and the forex of the usd pair. When the Dow goes up the USD goes down against other currency pairs and when the Dow goes up then the USD strengthens across currency pairs.

    On the daily Dow chart. The Dow has put in a reversal and is now going up with the slow stockhastic only after coming out of the oversold region. It seems that the Dow is going to continue advancing which means the USD will continue to weaken. I think cable is going to go back up to 1.49 (The sloping line in the triangle).

    Well thats my 2 cents. :-)

  • pakiestra

    That’s correct Pipcrawler, we are far away from getting out of the woods and the sentiment can change in a matter of minutes. I kind of think we need a bit o bear market rally as most of the currency pairs are sitting on their historical lows, bad news are not shaking out the markets (seems like traders are just “ignoring” it) but any piece of good news is causing the spasms of ill-based optymism.So the bear rally wouldn’t suprise me at all before we see another historical lows. That’s just my view. This level to short the pound seems to me a bit to low to have a nice meltdown, but again that’s me ranting :o). However if we close trading week on the positive note, the rally is getting closer isn’t it ?
    Good luck with your trading !

  • bilal_shirazi

    Good Luck Again All! Hopefully PipCrawler will put in some recommendations before the weekend closes

  • pakiestra

    That’s correct Pipcrawler, we are far away from getting out of the woods and the sentiment can change in a matter of minutes. I kind of think we need a bit o bear market rally as most of the currency pairs are sitting on their historical lows, bad news are not shaking out the markets (seems like traders are just “ignoring” it) but any piece of good news is causing the spasms of ill-based optymism.So the bear rally wouldn’t suprise me at all before we see another historical lows. That’s just my view. This level to short the pound seems to me a bit to low to have a nice meltdown, but again that’s me ranting :o). However if we close trading week on the positive note, the rally is getting closer isn’t it ?
    Good luck with your trading !

  • bilal_shirazi

    Finally got some movement below my short entry @ 1.390475, bullet proofed it with a -15 point TSO.

  • bilal_shirazi

    Good Luck Again All! Hopefully PipCrawler will put in some recommendations before the weekend closes

  • bilal_shirazi

    Finally got some movement below my short entry @ 1.390475, bullet proofed it with a -15 point TSO.

  • aokmanga

    I closed half of the trade with 20 pips of income.

  • Babysteps

    True I agree with PoundPip :-)
    For me always short this pair , But i think it will go up to 1.42 or maybe 1.43 maybe i might short

  • aokmanga

    I closed half of the trade with 20 pips of income.

  • Babysteps

    True I agree with PoundPip :-)
    For me always short this pair , But i think it will go up to 1.42 or maybe 1.43 maybe i might short

  • aokmanga

    i closed the second half at 1.3900
    70 pips of income for me and i’m satisfied :) better than losing 400.

  • aokmanga

    i closed the second half at 1.3900
    70 pips of income for me and i’m satisfied :) better than losing 400.

  • julian

    wish i had done the same. i also wish that there was more discussion on this post/trade and others. its like hours before anyone posts a comment,, we should all discuss it more in detail as the trade progess`s and help each other..

  • bilal_shirazi

    I agree that there isn’t much in the way of discussion here. Although we shouldn’t really be expecting much for a complimentary service. If you are in on a trade try to post it to meetpips.com, a group of people can follow each other.

  • julian

    also forex factory always have a post running on gbp/usd but wouldn`t it be better to keep it all in the same place or maybe use the forum on this site..maybe thats the answer,, on the next trade posted, start a forum thread here.. !!

  • julian

    wish i had done the same. i also wish that there was more discussion on this post/trade and others. its like hours before anyone posts a comment,, we should all discuss it more in detail as the trade progess`s and help each other..

  • bilal_shirazi

    I agree that there isn’t much in the way of discussion here. Although we shouldn’t really be expecting much for a complimentary service. If you are in on a trade try to post it to meetpips.com, a group of people can follow each other.

  • julian

    also forex factory always have a post running on gbp/usd but wouldn`t it be better to keep it all in the same place or maybe use the forum on this site..maybe thats the answer,, on the next trade posted, start a forum thread here.. !!