Pick of the Day: GBP/USD – Stopped Out

Stopped Out: 2007-06-13 12:00

Our short entry at 1.9680 was triggered during the European session and was stopped out after the positive US Retail Sales data on a “buy the rumor, sell the news” trade scenario.

USD rallied throughout the European session as traders positioned ahead of the expected positive numbers. From the time I posted to right before the release Cable moved from 1.9740 down to our entry at 1.9680, and in retrospect a market sell at that time would have been more prudent as stochastics were already coming out of overbought stochastic levels and bouncing
off of the 50% Fib levels. Of course, we make decisions in the moment and not in retrospect. So, another miss today and a rocky start to the week. We look forward to more US data in the next few days so stay tuned!

Total: -40 pips

Trade Idea: 2007-06-13 02:06

PoD Chart

It’s time to take a look at Cable once again! Bullish USD sentiment has been going strong, and we could see US economic data later that could continue to support that bullish sentiment in Retail Sales and Import Price Index.

Retail sales data is very important as it accounts for almost half of consumer spending. Economists are projecting a 0.6% rise versus a 0.2% decline in April retail sales, but this data may be skewed due to higher energy prices, most notably at the pump.

We also have UK economic data at 4:30 am with the Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count Change, and Unemployment rate. This data cause a small pop in price action, but probably nothing significant.

On, I am looking to jump into the bullish dollar trend if the pair breaks the psychological level at 1.9700 or if the pair shoots up to 1.9850 where it may meet resistance at the moving averages and 61% Fibonacci retracement level. Here we go:

Short GBP/USD at 1.9835, stop at 1.9875, pt1 at 1.9805, pt2 at 1.9760

or

Short GBP/USD at 1.9680, stop at 1.9720, pt1 at 1.9650, pt2 at 1.9625

Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Please adjust position sizes accordingly.