Closed Trade: 2007-06-07 11:40
Our trade was stopped out during the Euro session on an unforeseen event. North Korea launched two shot range missles off its coast today, after which traders flocked to the dollar on as a “flight to safety” response. The dollar rallied and took our trade to the stop out level… doh!! Again, it was an unforeseeable event, and it’s a good thing we had a stop on.
1st trade: -25 pips
2nd trade: -30 pips
Total: -55 pips
Trade Adjustment: 2007-06-06 00:00
The ECB hikes rates up by 25 basis points to 4.00%. We saw an initial spike up before the pair retraced down and hit our tight stop at 1.3495. Trichet’s comments were pretty neutral as he basically stated that the ECB will “do what we judge is appropriate when the time comes.”
Hey, I’m still long bias on this pair so I am re-entering at 1.3500.
Stopped out: -25 pips
Re-enter long at 1.3500, stop at 1.3470, pt at 1.3550
Let it Ride: 2007-06-06 00:00
We saw the Dollar rebound today on stronger than expected ISM Services data, but the pair failed to drop past the 1.35 level keeping our trade alive. This shows that trader’s sentiment is still a strong possibility we may see an interest rake hike soon.
No major event risk ahead of the interest rate statement, so we will “Let it Ride” as I expect the EUR/USD to rally a bit further throughout the Asia/Euro trading session. No trade adjustments for now. Stay tuned ahead of the decision for trade adjustments based on price action in the upcoming Euro session. Good luck!
Trade Update: 2007-06-05 09:20
Just a quick update. EUR/USD rallied this morning during a broad based US Dollar selloff. Our long order was triggered at 1.3525 and the market continued to rally before meeting resistance near 1.3550 and retracing back to around 1.3530. We will hold our trade for now with one minor adjustment:
Trail stop by moving from 1.3475 to 1.3495
Trade Idea: 2007-06-04 23:15
Welcome! Today we will take a look at EUR/USD. Last week, we saw positive jobs data, but the data that was more interesting to me was the revised lower GDP showing a slowing economy, the negative Personal Income number and weaker than expected Core PCE number.
Okay, here’s what I’m thinking: A decline in the consumer’s income means less spending, but the Personal Spending number was better than expected – what’s up with that? Credit borrowing of course! Well, with institutions tightening up lending policies I see Personal spending decline when you combine the inability to borrow and Personal Income decline. The Greenback will not bode well in the months to come if consumers cut back on spending.
Core PCE (the preferred measure of inflation by the Fed) came in weaker. Weaker inflation data means another drop in the possibility of the Fed holding or raising rates. Again, not good for positive Dollar sentiment.
And what’s going on with the Euro? Well, sentiment is up on the strong possibility of rate hikes in the very near term (possibly this week?), so we should see it rally at least up until the rate decision on Wednesday.
So, by my view it looks like long EUR/USD is the way to go, but we will wait for the pair to break out of its range first. Before we look at our trade idea please be aware of today’s event risks including the 2007 International Monetary Policy Conference (Trichet will be speaking), EUR Retail Sales and Services PMI, and ISM Services data.