Pick of the Day: EUR/USD – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2008-11-13 17:30

After a quiet Asia and European trading session, EUR/USD rallied big time midway through the US session as traders pushed the market up from 1.2450 to 1.2800 – over 300 pips. This brought my remaining position back to breakeven, where my adjust stop was hit and my trade was closed.

1st Half: +200 pips
2nd Half: +00 pips
Total: +0.5% gain

I suspect this rally at the end of the Euro/US overlap was due to profit taking and short covering ahead of the big G-20 meeting tomorrow. The outcome is unknown for that meeting and traders are less likely to hold a position into something that may push the markets one way or another. I will probably stay out the markets as well tomorrow and start my weekend early. See ya next week!

Trade Update: 2008-11-11 18:42

What’s up! Just a quick update on my trade as EUR/USD hits my first profit target at 1.2500. A portion of my position has been closed and now it’s time for some adjustments.

Half position closed at 1.2500 to lock in profits. Adjusting stop from 1.2900 to breakeven (1.2700). I am going to hold my remaining position and trail stop by 200 pips.

No major news in the upcoming trading session for either the Euro or the Greenback. Look for market sentiment to continue to dominate price action until we see data come out on Thursday. Stay tuned and let’s see where this puppy goes!

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Trade Idea: 2008-11-10 20:41

PoD Chart

Slowing global growth is still the main focus of the markets and it looks there is a technical play forming on EUR/USD to go along with that sentiment as we speak. More losses for the Euro this week?

On the four hour chart, we have a simple technical setup as a symmetrical triangle forms showing price consolidation. It looks like the rising trend line is being broken on the current candle. This is a simple bearish setup with the potential to retest previous lows around 1.24 and beyond.

Again, the current concern is still the slowdown in global growth story, and without any major economic news releases this sentiment will continue to play out in price action. Here’s what I’m gonna do:

Short at market (1.2700), stop at 1.2900, pt1 at 1.2500, pt2 at 1.2300

Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

Stay tuned!

38 comments

  1. barrooo

    Excellent, I’ve been looking at this trade for a while, and then it pops up on babypips, maybe I am learning something after all

    Reply
  2. cadarkitek

    I refer to those as pennants/flags, I wouldnt enter after the break, because the protective stop would be huge(I place my stops above last high or low). I’m looking to enter after the break on a reversal candlestick formation after the first retraceent.

    Reply
  3. barrooo

    Excellent, I’ve been looking at this trade for a while, and then it pops up on babypips, maybe I am learning something after all

    Reply
  4. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Thanks for the comments guys! Jayala – probably gonna give it to the end of the week. Probably won’t see any action until Thursday, when data starts coming out. Time wise, this is pretty much a swing trade as I expect it to last a few days.

    Reply
  5. cadarkitek

    I refer to those as pennants/flags, I wouldnt enter after the break, because the protective stop would be huge(I place my stops above last high or low). I’m looking to enter after the break on a reversal candlestick formation after the first retraceent.

    Reply
  6. Jayala

    Pipcrawler I want to say ‘Thanks!’

    I followed your trade today and made about 170 pips today (aprrox 5 hrs). As I’m a noob, and have a smaller acct. size, I squared, and took my profits.

    At this point would you continue to short the Euro/USD?

    Reply
  7. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Thanks for the comments guys! Jayala – probably gonna give it to the end of the week. Probably won’t see any action until Thursday, when data starts coming out. Time wise, this is pretty much a swing trade as I expect it to last a few days.

    Reply
  8. PipWolf

    Jayala, have you read Pipcrawler’s trading rules? They’re right below his “About Pick of the Day” blurb. Normally Pipcrawler will open two trades that are identical, except that one has a conservative take profit (pt1) and the other a more ambitious take profit (pt2). He will wait until pt1 is hit (and it was very recently at the time of writing), close out the first trade and then adjust his second trade to breakeven and wait for pt2 to be hit. Sometimes he changes things up a little depending on market conditions, but he will usually post trading updates. Generally it’s best to follow his rules religously. Usally, once pt1 is hit you are going to lock in profits on the first position and have a zero-risk trade on the second. That’s the position we’re in now with this trade (at least according to my software). The short answer to your question is yes, he would continue to hold half his position now, waiting to hit pt2.

    Reply
  9. Jayala

    Pipcrawler I want to say ‘Thanks!’

    I followed your trade today and made about 170 pips today (aprrox 5 hrs). As I’m a noob, and have a smaller acct. size, I squared, and took my profits.

    At this point would you continue to short the Euro/USD?

    Reply
  10. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Thanks for the answering that for me Pipwolf! Hehe…it’s all there in the blog on how I do it, but don’t follow me word for word as there is more than one way to skin a cat! What works for me may not work for you so it is crucial you develop your own trading style. I’m just here to share my experiences and I hope it helps you develop your own trading plan. I’m still short biased on EUR/USD based on sentiment, fundamentals, and technicals, but today’s move was a good one so there may be a retracement on profit taking. Also, 1.25 is a psychologically significant level that may hold. I don’t know if it will which is why I adjust my stop and took some profit. I hope this helps. Good luck everyone!

    Reply
  11. PipWolf

    No worries, mate. However, I will say this: When I was a total newbie I followed your trades (and those of Cyclopip) verbatim. Over time I began to see what you see on the charts, and developed my own trading ideas. Sometimes I even spot your setups before you post them (like this one :) ) now, but that certainly only happened after a look-copy-learn approach. That’s what I suggest Jayala does for now until she (?) is more confident. Just my two cents. For the record I think 1.25 will hold for a while then break big-time right through 1.23, and that 1.23 might prove to be a bit conservative for pt2. But that’s just my personal take on it ;)

    Reply
  12. johnnykanoo

    Pipcrawler who’s better than you. You keep nailing em one after another I definatly learn and grow as a result of reading your blog entries and watching your trades unfold.
    thanks for all the effort, John

    Reply
  13. PipWolf

    Jayala, have you read Pipcrawler’s trading rules? They’re right below his “About Pick of the Day” blurb. Normally Pipcrawler will open two trades that are identical, except that one has a conservative take profit (pt1) and the other a more ambitious take profit (pt2). He will wait until pt1 is hit (and it was very recently at the time of writing), close out the first trade and then adjust his second trade to breakeven and wait for pt2 to be hit. Sometimes he changes things up a little depending on market conditions, but he will usually post trading updates. Generally it’s best to follow his rules religously. Usally, once pt1 is hit you are going to lock in profits on the first position and have a zero-risk trade on the second. That’s the position we’re in now with this trade (at least according to my software). The short answer to your question is yes, he would continue to hold half his position now, waiting to hit pt2.

    Reply
  14. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Thanks for the answering that for me Pipwolf! Hehe…it’s all there in the blog on how I do it, but don’t follow me word for word as there is more than one way to skin a cat! What works for me may not work for you so it is crucial you develop your own trading style. I’m just here to share my experiences and I hope it helps you develop your own trading plan. I’m still short biased on EUR/USD based on sentiment, fundamentals, and technicals, but today’s move was a good one so there may be a retracement on profit taking. Also, 1.25 is a psychologically significant level that may hold. I don’t know if it will which is why I adjust my stop and took some profit. I hope this helps. Good luck everyone!

    Reply
  15. PipWolf

    No worries, mate. However, I will say this: When I was a total newbie I followed your trades (and those of Cyclopip) verbatim. Over time I began to see what you see on the charts, and developed my own trading ideas. Sometimes I even spot your setups before you post them (like this one :) ) now, but that certainly only happened after a look-copy-learn approach. That’s what I suggest Jayala does for now until she (?) is more confident. Just my two cents. For the record I think 1.25 will hold for a while then break big-time right through 1.23, and that 1.23 might prove to be a bit conservative for pt2. But that’s just my personal take on it ;)

    Reply
  16. johnnykanoo

    Pipcrawler who’s better than you. You keep nailing em one after another I definatly learn and grow as a result of reading your blog entries and watching your trades unfold.
    thanks for all the effort, John

    Reply
  17. julian

    Hi Pipwolf.. I`d like to hope your (Look-copy-learn)post is a sign for me that things will work out for me as a forex trader.. I am a newbie and after a lot of looking and studying I decided that my plan is to use 2 pro traders that achieve good results and post good trading knowledge, trade their trades only and learn along the way.(Just like you said.. Look – copy- learn. I have found my first guy and I am now looking at the Babypips gang to choose my second.. Pipcrawler is in poll position at the moment ! All The Best…

    Reply
  18. julian

    Hi Pipwolf.. I`d like to hope your (Look-copy-learn)post is a sign for me that things will work out for me as a forex trader.. I am a newbie and after a lot of looking and studying I decided that my plan is to use 2 pro traders that achieve good results and post good trading knowledge, trade their trades only and learn along the way.(Just like you said.. Look – copy- learn. I have found my first guy and I am now looking at the Babypips gang to choose my second.. Pipcrawler is in poll position at the moment ! All The Best…

    Reply
  19. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    hey johnny…i’m an okay trader, I just get lucky sometimes! ;) Julian, look-learn-and find a way to do it your own way…it’s best to have a strategy built for you!

    Reply
  20. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    hey johnny…i’m an okay trader, I just get lucky sometimes! ;) Julian, look-learn-and find a way to do it your own way…it’s best to have a strategy built for you!

    Reply
  21. julian

    Yes I agree and that is my goal for the future but it will take time. In the mean time my strategy is to copy and learn and learn and learn….Then when the time comes I can do it my own way. Thanks for your advice. Im finding it very interesting getting different peoples opinions. Some positive and some very negative. Do you trade full time yourself ??

    Reply
  22. julian

    Yes I agree and that is my goal for the future but it will take time. In the mean time my strategy is to copy and learn and learn and learn….Then when the time comes I can do it my own way. Thanks for your advice. Im finding it very interesting getting different peoples opinions. Some positive and some very negative. Do you trade full time yourself ??

    Reply
  23. PipWolf

    Julian, learning from Pipcrawler will be an excellent introduction to Forex for you. Just think of him as the Jedi Master and yourself as the Padawan learner. BTW Pipcrawler, now that the EUR/USD has had a major bounce today, it seems to have hit resistance at the old rising support trendline you used for this trade. Time to short again?

    Reply
  24. PipWolf

    Julian, learning from Pipcrawler will be an excellent introduction to Forex for you. Just think of him as the Jedi Master and yourself as the Padawan learner. BTW Pipcrawler, now that the EUR/USD has had a major bounce today, it seems to have hit resistance at the old rising support trendline you used for this trade. Time to short again?

    Reply
  25. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Jedi Master??? Me?? hahah. I’m aight :) Well, EUR/USD is pretty much back to where it was at the beginning of the week and it looks like its holding as resistance. But G20 is meeting today, so I’m probably going to put on anything significant beyond the day….

    Reply
  26. julian

    Cheers Guys,I look forward to the journey and appreciate your advice…. I`m long at the moment on usd/chf and in profit. What effect would you guys say this G20 meeting may have on my trade ?? Thanks

    Reply
  27. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Jedi Master??? Me?? hahah. I’m aight :) Well, EUR/USD is pretty much back to where it was at the beginning of the week and it looks like its holding as resistance. But G20 is meeting today, so I’m probably going to put on anything significant beyond the day….

    Reply
  28. julian

    Cheers Guys,I look forward to the journey and appreciate your advice…. I`m long at the moment on usd/chf and in profit. What effect would you guys say this G20 meeting may have on my trade ?? Thanks

    Reply

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