Pick of the Day: EUR/USD – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2008-06-20 10:05

Our trade was closed today as the US Dollar sold off as traders feel we may see the Fed hike rates later than first thought.

Trade stopped out.

Total: -100 pips/ -1.0%

The support area around 1.5460 held as the currency markets continue to remain sideways and choppy between 1.53 and 1.58. It looks like sentiment may be changing back to US Dollar short, but I’ll be watching 1.58 to see if the top of the range holds or breaks.

Trade Update: 2008-06-18 09:25

Just a quick update as our trade was triggered shortly after the idea was posted. After a bit of volatility throughout the Asia and European trading sessions, the pair is back below 1.55, currently giving us a profit.

I still plan on holding on this trade for now, but it looks like 1.5460 is the bottom of the mini-range we’re currently in now. That support may continue to hold for now until we see an event to hopefully push it lower. Stay tuned for updates and adjustments. Good luck!

Trade Idea: 2008-06-17 08:57

PoD Chart

Good morning! EUR/USD has been trending lower on the sentiment that the Fed may have to eventually raise rates this year to battle inflation. With US PPI just released with a read hotter than expected at 1.4% versus the consensus of 1.0%, and housing data coming in pretty much inline, I think the Fed’s renewed focus on inflation may continue.

I would like to jump into the trend in EUR/USD as it looks like we have an opportunity to short off of the retracement, after the pair hit 1.53. Stochastics are showing overbought conditions, and with the Fibonacci tool, we can see 38% retracement lines up with 1.55 (a potentially strong psychological area).

So, I’m going to short at 1.55, with a stop above the most recent high and target 1.53.

Short EUR/USD at 1.5500, stop 1.5600, pt1 at 1.5400, pt2 at 1.5300

Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

Stay tuned, good luck and good trading!

On a side note…Don’t forget to check out Freshpips.com! Forex news picked by Forex traders! Let’s help each other out find what moves the markets…See ya there!

34 comments

  1. hellscreamer

    the dollar is still too weak , I hope your sl will be enough to hold EUR , as I am now typing , EUR/USD is breaking 15536 resistance

    Reply
  2. pakiestra

    I’m afraid that it may not be strong enough, it’s already 1.5560. All in all momentum for the dollar is lost, the only intervention for a buck was a talk down, so now it runs only on echo.

    Reply
  3. hellscreamer

    the dollar is still too weak , I hope your sl will be enough to hold EUR , as I am now typing , EUR/USD is breaking 15536 resistance

    Reply
  4. hellscreamer

    but if oil keeps pulling back , it can turn everything around and favor your trade ! I’m waiting for your next comment Pipcrawler :D

    Reply
  5. pakiestra

    I’m afraid that it may not be strong enough, it’s already 1.5560. All in all momentum for the dollar is lost, the only intervention for a buck was a talk down, so now it runs only on echo.

    Reply
  6. hellscreamer

    but if oil keeps pulling back , it can turn everything around and favor your trade ! I’m waiting for your next comment Pipcrawler :D

    Reply
  7. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Thanks for the comments everyone! I looks like 1.5580 held and the pair fell all the way back below our entry order. So, we’re back in profit, but I have a feeling we’re going to continue to see chopiness for the rest of the week…

    Reply
  8. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Thanks for the comments everyone! I looks like 1.5580 held and the pair fell all the way back below our entry order. So, we’re back in profit, but I have a feeling we’re going to continue to see chopiness for the rest of the week…

    Reply
  9. demontez

    Pip,
    This is not good. the sad thing was i should have closed out earlier than the stop loss position but i kept hoping that the bears will come out.As my stop loss position has filled. it is a nightmare. but still thanks for the blog.

    Reply
  10. clipmax

    Pip your trade idea was fairly good, the matter was that EUR found support @ 5460 and USD was not able to break it. By following your comments I exited the trade on yesterday retracement @ 5475 and banked 25 pips. Looking for another great idea, wish you a nice weekend

    Reply
  11. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    “it is a nightmare.” … that is an extreme statement there demontez that leads me to believe that you may be risking too much per trade and that it is affecting you psychologically. It is my belief that no one trade should affect you as much, which is why we always say, “never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade.” If that “1%” is too much then you can always adjust your position sizes down so that you risk less per trade. This is a technique that should be practiced extensively in demo before going live….

    Reply
  12. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Thanks for the comments everyone…. yeah, 5460 held pretty well and with sentiment shifting to later Fed hikes, traders gave back some Greenbacks to the market… I’m gonna watch 1.58 for now and make my next move on EURUSD then….

    Reply
  13. demontez

    Pip,
    This is not good. the sad thing was i should have closed out earlier than the stop loss position but i kept hoping that the bears will come out.As my stop loss position has filled. it is a nightmare. but still thanks for the blog.

    Reply
  14. pakiestra

    The real nightmare is when you enter babypips site and you see one of demontez’s posts.
    Is there any chance that you can select/highlight the author so next time you won’t see it at all? That could be a reasonable option which respects both: freedom of speech and freedom of choice things to read IMHO.

    Reply
  15. clipmax

    Pip your trade idea was fairly good, the matter was that EUR found support @ 5460 and USD was not able to break it. By following your comments I exited the trade on yesterday retracement @ 5475 and banked 25 pips. Looking for another great idea, wish you a nice weekend

    Reply
  16. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    “it is a nightmare.” … that is an extreme statement there demontez that leads me to believe that you may be risking too much per trade and that it is affecting you psychologically. It is my belief that no one trade should affect you as much, which is why we always say, “never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade.” If that “1%” is too much then you can always adjust your position sizes down so that you risk less per trade. This is a technique that should be practiced extensively in demo before going live….

    Reply
  17. PipcrawlerPipcrawler

    Thanks for the comments everyone…. yeah, 5460 held pretty well and with sentiment shifting to later Fed hikes, traders gave back some Greenbacks to the market… I’m gonna watch 1.58 for now and make my next move on EURUSD then….

    Reply
  18. Babysteps

    We are always respects both.But losing 100 pip not something we can pass through that easy!!

    I respect and like pip blog and I’m sure he experienced and professional but lately don’t know what’s wrong i see more than one losing trade,When pip post trade not goes as i see on my chart i don’t enter this trade and watch.
    Honest i feel pip not concentrate lately.
    Happy weekend to you all

    Reply
  19. Babysteps

    I forget to say pip success in:
    If you’re a forex newbie, it can be tricky in the beginning trying to figure out how to look at charts and draw lines. My goal is help you understand the psychology of price movements so you can learn to analyze your own charts and trade on your very own.

    Reply
  20. pakiestra

    The real nightmare is when you enter babypips site and you see one of demontez’s posts.
    Is there any chance that you can select/highlight the author so next time you won’t see it at all? That could be a reasonable option which respects both: freedom of speech and freedom of choice things to read IMHO.

    Reply
  21. rdm102653

    Last night I was watching the 4HR Chart with my 5,10 EMAs and trading on the 15 Minute cahrt. I bought 7 lots from my Mini Acount. When I woke up this morning I was up $648.00, I closed that trade out and went long again and when I came home from work I was up another 81.00 dollars.
    Great Job

    Reply
  22. Babysteps

    We are always respects both.But losing 100 pip not something we can pass through that easy!!

    I respect and like pip blog and I’m sure he experienced and professional but lately don’t know what’s wrong i see more than one losing trade,When pip post trade not goes as i see on my chart i don’t enter this trade and watch.
    Honest i feel pip not concentrate lately.
    Happy weekend to you all

    Reply
  23. Babysteps

    I forget to say pip success in:
    If you’re a forex newbie, it can be tricky in the beginning trying to figure out how to look at charts and draw lines. My goal is help you understand the psychology of price movements so you can learn to analyze your own charts and trade on your very own.

    Reply
  24. rdm102653

    Last night I was watching the 4HR Chart with my 5,10 EMAs and trading on the 15 Minute cahrt. I bought 7 lots from my Mini Acount. When I woke up this morning I was up $648.00, I closed that trade out and went long again and when I came home from work I was up another 81.00 dollars.
    Great Job

    Reply
  25. tiffanytansh

    Can’t blame anyone for losing trade. Trade decision should be based on one’s own analysis. Reading posts in blogs only serve as a guide and a way to learn how to analysis. I am also a newbie, for this trade, I saw reverse H & S forming in the Hourly Charts for the past week. I did doubt my own analysis at first when I see your post but I still stick to my own analysis in the end.

    Reply
  26. tiffanytansh

    Can’t blame anyone for losing trade. Trade decision should be based on one’s own analysis. Reading posts in blogs only serve as a guide and a way to learn how to analysis. I am also a newbie, for this trade, I saw reverse H & S forming in the Hourly Charts for the past week. I did doubt my own analysis at first when I see your post but I still stick to my own analysis in the end.

    Reply

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