Pick of the Day: EUR/USD – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2007-10-09 11:35

Our position closed this morning at our adjusted stop loss as we saw a broad based USD selloff and a return to risk as equities rally in the US.

1st Half: +40 pips
2nd Half: +50 pips
Total: +90 pips

I hope everyone did well on this trade and stay tuned for a new trade idea tonight!

Trade Update: 2007-10-09 00:00

No new trade idea tonight as we hold on to our short position in EUR/USD. We are currently in the money about 80 pips as EUR/USD current trades around 1.4020 and I would like to adjust the stop on our remaining position to lock in a few more pips.

Adjust stop from breakeven (1.4100) to 1.4050

We’ve got ECB President Trichet giving testimony to the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium. Also, we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes later today which look to see whether the September rate cut was a one time thing or if there will be more to come.

Stay tuned for more updates and possible adjustments. Good luck!

Stop Adjustment: 2007-10-08 16:20

The Greenback continued to rally today and easily hit our first profit target at 1.4060. We banked in +40 pips by closing half of our position and we have now adjusted our stop to breakeven on our remaining position.

I will incorporate a 50 pip trailing stop and just let this one ride to see how far it goes, hopefully to 1.3950 and beyond. So, stay tuned for stop adjustment updates and hopefully we can bag more pips. Good luck!

Trade Update: 2007-10-08 09:25

The 1.4150 level held the EUR/USD and the Dollar made a broad based rally during this morning’s European trading session. This brought the pair back below the 1.41 handle, keeping those of us who got in the trade during out chat session from getting stopped out.

For those who got in with the trade idea, we’re currently up about 10 pips and we probably won’t see any action for the rest of the day as the U.S. is in holiday mode. There may be a bit of volatility around the European close, but don’t expect much. We will continue to hold onto this trade for the moment.

Stay tuned for more updates or a manual closing of our position as we approach European data and FOMC minutes tomorrow.

2007-10-05 09:30

US Employment data came in better than expected with upward revisions to previous months. For those of you who couldn’t make it to the chat, we slowly shorted EUR/USD, building a position to target 1.3950.

For those who haven’t gotten in yet, here’s a trade idea if you have a short view on the pair:

Short EUR/USD at 1.4100, stop at 1.4160, pt1 at 1.4050, pt2 at 1.3950

Remember never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly. Good luck!

2007-10-04 22:40

Well, its just another day in the Forex market, right? Wrong! We have one of the biggest, if not THE biggest, economic reports coming out later today – monthly US Employment Report (aka US Non-Farm Payrolls, aka NFP)! So, what do we do?

Well, the market expects a rebound in US jobs added for September, but will we see any revisions of previous months? (Let’s remember the Sub Prime debacle and layoffs in the financial sector). And the Euro is unsure of where its heading in the short term as the ECB must be concerned with economic slowdown, even as inflation ticks up to 2.1% in September vs. 1.7% in the previous month.

With so much uncertainty, the markets will do what it usually does ahead an event of this magnitude – sit and wait. Traders will be sidelined until the report is released or make a bet right before the release to get in early.

I prefer to sit and wait as we could see massive volatility after the report and orders during this time have a high risk of being filled with massive slippage. Be very cautious, especially with market orders or just don’t trade at all until volatility dies down.

Now I am short bias on the pair, and if the Employment data, including revisions, is favorable for the US, then I may jump in short as I think the Euro has further to correct (possibly to 1.3950) before returning to the uptrend.

I will post any trade ideas I may have after the report tomorrow, so stay tuned. Also, I will be in our awesome chat room tomorrow morning, watching the markets after the report. I better see ya’ll there!

  • ogadeni

    Hello there Sir pipcrawler,

    Always enjoy reading your blog. Which chat room are you going to be in? Just curious,it that the forum?

  • Pipcrawler

    Yes, I will be in the forum chat rooms! Hope to see ya there!

  • ogadeni

    Hello there Sir pipcrawler,

    Always enjoy reading your blog. Which chat room are you going to be in? Just curious,it that the forum?

  • Pipcrawler

    Yes, I will be in the forum chat rooms! Hope to see ya there!

  • sawill

    Nice call on the pre release news. Iset up my play last night and with a short entry at 1.4130 (just made it in) stop at 1.4210, Limit 1.4070. Hit my limit within minutes of release
    + 60 not bad, though my risk was high with the 1.4210 stop.

    Quetion: is you 1.4100 short still a good call for the rest of the day.

    I see that just after your 9:30 update the spike back to 4155 and holding steady between that and 4135 through about 1:30 est.

    Are you still looking for the large pullback?
    MACD approching zero as I type
    EMA 10,25 about to cross

    bye

  • sawill

    Nice call on the pre release news. Iset up my play last night and with a short entry at 1.4130 (just made it in) stop at 1.4210, Limit 1.4070. Hit my limit within minutes of release
    + 60 not bad, though my risk was high with the 1.4210 stop.

    Quetion: is you 1.4100 short still a good call for the rest of the day.

    I see that just after your 9:30 update the spike back to 4155 and holding steady between that and 4135 through about 1:30 est.

    Are you still looking for the large pullback?
    MACD approching zero as I type
    EMA 10,25 about to cross

    bye

  • Pipcrawler

    hey sawill,

    sorry for the late reply. Again, I am short bias on the pair and I am targeting 1.3950. We may see more correction, but I will consider my position invalid if it moves above 1.42… I hope this helps.

  • Pipcrawler

    hey sawill,

    sorry for the late reply. Again, I am short bias on the pair and I am targeting 1.3950. We may see more correction, but I will consider my position invalid if it moves above 1.42… I hope this helps.

  • SteveG

    HI to you Mr Pipcrawler. Can you tell me about your trade posts. Are the times of the posts on the site in GMT or EST.

    I am following these out of New Zealand. Many Thanks.

  • SteveG

    HI to you Mr Pipcrawler. Can you tell me about your trade posts. Are the times of the posts on the site in GMT or EST.

    I am following these out of New Zealand. Many Thanks.