Pick of the Day: AUD/USD – Trade Closed

Trade Stopped Out

We held half a normal position size and it got stopped out for -49 pips.

Half Position: -49 pips

Trade Update: 2007-02-14 20:50

Just a quick update on our short trade in AUD/USD. I’m still short in this position and I will keep it open as I still believe this pair is going down. Stochastics are still in the overbought area and starting to turn lower. Our order to short at 0.7850 was missed by 3 pips, so close open orders to short at 0.7850. Stay tuned!

Trade Update: 2007-02-14 09:50

It looks like the Greenback is treading lower against the majors ahead of Bernanke’s testimony. We are currently half a position short in AUD/USD and it is rising at the moment. Unless Bernanke comes out with dovish commentary I think we’ll see resistance at .7850. Let’s do a few trade adjustments

Cancel open orders to short at 0.7775.
Short half position at .7850, stop at 0.7865, pt at 0.7820
Adjust stop on open position to 0.7865.

This creates a total risk of 64 pips. Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any one trade. Good luck and good trading!

Trade Update: 2007-02-14 08:10

We entered short half our normal position size last night as AUD/USD rose up to 0.7816. The be events of the day starts with US Retail sales at 08:30 EST followed by Bernanke’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. We will probably see much volatility after his testimony, so look out for possible trade adjustments leading up to this event. Good luck!

Trade Idea: 2007-02-13 23:36

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For tonight’s pick we will take a look AUD/USD. We just saw a recent runup in the Aussie as the price of raw materials rose (Australia’s exports are largely comprised of raw materials). Even with this runup, traders still remain bearish on the AUD/USD. We look to enter short on this pair, and with a bullish dollar sentiment before Bernanke’s speech tomorrow we should have a good probability of profitability.

Using the Fibonacci retracement tool, we see possible resistance areas around 0.7816 and 0.7788. This would make a great area to short, especially since we are so close to the 0.7800 area. So, we will scale into AUD/USD today. Here we go:

Short half normal position of AUD/USD at 0.7816, stop at 0.7855, pt at 0.7776

and

Short half normal position at 0.7775, stop at 0.7815, pt at 0.7675

Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade, so please adjust your position sizes accordingly.

Good luck and good trading!

  • superalf

    Pipcrawler,

    For the second position:

    “Short half normal position at 0.7775, stop at 0.7715, pt at 0.7675″

    Do you have the stop loss and position opening price mixed up? If you short at 0.7775 how can the stop be at 0.7715? Should we switch these two?

    Thanks.

  • clam0391

    There is definitely an error here, but I have interpreted the intention as open at .7785, stop at .7815. .7715 is much too low to be a possible entry, I think. .7675 looks very odd, too, are you sure that is your intention? It wd have to drop right past the lows at 31 January

  • superalf

    Pipcrawler,

    For the second position:

    “Short half normal position at 0.7775, stop at 0.7715, pt at 0.7675″

    Do you have the stop loss and position opening price mixed up? If you short at 0.7775 how can the stop be at 0.7715? Should we switch these two?

    Thanks.

  • clam0391

    There is definitely an error here, but I have interpreted the intention as open at .7785, stop at .7815. .7715 is much too low to be a possible entry, I think. .7675 looks very odd, too, are you sure that is your intention? It wd have to drop right past the lows at 31 January

  • clam0391

    I have already chickened out of this trade, at a profit of 1 pip! Will I be kicking myself later?

  • pipcrawler

    sorry everyone, about that entry order error… it’s fixed now.

    Hey clam0391…I don’t know if you’ll be kicking yourself later. But that’s why we create our plan ahead of time. We determine our entries and exits, and acceptable risk tolerance. This should take some fear off the table.

    Well, we’ll see what happens after Bernanke’s testimony. Thanks for checking out my post!

  • clam0391

    It’s all very well to make plans, Pip – but shouldn’t we be prepared to adjust them according to the state of play? I left one-sixth of my position in and it’s now flashing the stop loss red. There are many sellers waiting around .7850 and I have joined them!

  • clam0391

    I have already chickened out of this trade, at a profit of 1 pip! Will I be kicking myself later?

  • pipcrawler

    sorry everyone, about that entry order error… it’s fixed now.

    Hey clam0391…I don’t know if you’ll be kicking yourself later. But that’s why we create our plan ahead of time. We determine our entries and exits, and acceptable risk tolerance. This should take some fear off the table.

    Well, we’ll see what happens after Bernanke’s testimony. Thanks for checking out my post!

  • clam0391

    It’s all very well to make plans, Pip – but shouldn’t we be prepared to adjust them according to the state of play? I left one-sixth of my position in and it’s now flashing the stop loss red. There are many sellers waiting around .7850 and I have joined them!

  • clam0391

    Not sure where you get your data feed, pip – I got short at .7850 at 2007/2/14 22:27 (our time I think, I haven’t figured out the times shown on this trading platform, I’m new to this game) and closed the trade at .7820 for +11 pips. My hour candle for 15:00 in the InterbankFX chart shows a high of .7850, so according to my chart we just got there. How come there can be 3 pips difference between different data feeds? It’s not like there was much volatility.

  • clam0391

    sorry, pip, got the time wrong – the short trade was triggered at 15:22 and CLOSED at 22:27

  • Pete

    Looks like this trade is getting uglier by the minute. I’m looking at it like a hawk. 4 hour stochastics have been overbought for a long time but is refusing to cross under the 80 mark – it looks like there is an endless supply of buyers still. It tested the 7847 mark again but it looks like its finding resistance. Whats preventing me from jumping ship is the 4 hour stochastic and the doji about to form from the daily chart. Otherwise, this could become very bloody.

  • clam0391

    Not sure where you get your data feed, pip – I got short at .7850 at 2007/2/14 22:27 (our time I think, I haven’t figured out the times shown on this trading platform, I’m new to this game) and closed the trade at .7820 for +11 pips. My hour candle for 15:00 in the InterbankFX chart shows a high of .7850, so according to my chart we just got there. How come there can be 3 pips difference between different data feeds? It’s not like there was much volatility.

  • clam0391

    sorry, pip, got the time wrong – the short trade was triggered at 15:22 and CLOSED at 22:27

  • Pete

    clam0391, I think you are setting your short triggers on the offer instead of the bid, thats probably why your trade was triggered.

  • Pete

    Looks like this trade is getting uglier by the minute. I’m looking at it like a hawk. 4 hour stochastics have been overbought for a long time but is refusing to cross under the 80 mark – it looks like there is an endless supply of buyers still. It tested the 7847 mark again but it looks like its finding resistance. Whats preventing me from jumping ship is the 4 hour stochastic and the doji about to form from the daily chart. Otherwise, this could become very bloody.

  • Pete

    clam0391, I think you are setting your short triggers on the offer instead of the bid, thats probably why your trade was triggered.

  • pipcrawler

    Hey, is everyone still in this trade?? Looks like it’s turning…

  • Pete

    I stopped the first order 7850 and entered back at 7840. It wasnt a good decision but from what I saw earlier was way too much scalping going on with no clear trend. Now. looking to exit completely at breakeven.

  • pipcrawler

    Hey, is everyone still in this trade?? Looks like it’s turning…

  • Pete

    I stopped the first order 7850 and entered back at 7840. It wasnt a good decision but from what I saw earlier was way too much scalping going on with no clear trend. Now. looking to exit completely at breakeven.