Trade Closed: 2011-04-13 00:15 ET
My trade was triggered not too after I posted my trade idea as AUD/USD grinded a bit higher into the US trading session. It actually moved up to the 61% Fib, where it stalled and created another divergence signal before moving lower.
It looks like buyers took back control there and the pair bounced higher into the Asia session, where I decided to close out my day trade for a tiny profit.
Closed position at 1.0472
Total: +18 pips/ 0.36% gain
In retrospect, the best move to exit the trade was to take it off for 1% gain at the WATR/DATR level with no further catalysts to spark additional directional movement. Also, if I wanted to be more conservative, I could have set my short orders right at MaPs (1.05). But overall, it was a good trade that I’m happy with; just gotta keep working on my exit decisions.
Trade Idea: 2011-04-12 05:01 ET
Good morning! It looks like strong moves into the Greenback is the play of the day commodities take hit, especially gold and silver. AUD/USD took a hit today and after a nice bounce higher during the European trading session, it looks like the intraday trend may resume lower.
It’s a simple Fibonacci play on the 15 min chart. Couple that with the potential support-turned-resistance at the PDL/DO (1.0487) and we could see plenty of sell orders turning the bulls around. Finally, we have a divergence signal as stochastic is making a higher “high” against the lower “high” in price action.
Fundamentally, it seems the weak the surprise China trade deficit and weak forecasts from the IMF on future economic growth have sparked risk aversion, especially in commodities. This should continue to influence trade today as the US gets to price in the bearish views within a few hours.
So, I look to set my short orders at PDL (1.0490) and my target will be the day’s low at 1.0390. My stop will be right above at 76% Fib retracement level and just above the top DATR. This trade has a potential 2:1 R:R. Here’s what I am doing:
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