Each day, I will try to find what I believe is the best looking short term trade setup for the upcoming trading day or week. If you're a forex newbie, it can be tricky in the beginning trying to figure out how to look at charts and draw lines. My goal is help you understand the psychology of price movements so you can learn to analyze your own charts and trade on your very own. I will post my ideas and/or reviews through out each session right here, on Twitter and on Facebook.
Read First: My Trading Framework!!
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Our half position in GBPUSD was stopped out at -40 pips as we just saw weaker Chicago PMI numbers at 48.8 versus consensus of 52.0 and weaker monthly construction spending at -0.4%. This was another tough loss since we were actually up approximately… More…
It's been a snoozer of a day for USD/CHF as the pair remained in a 40 pip range since the beginning of the Euro session. Consumer Confidence report came out pretty much inline at 110.3 versus the consensus of 110.0 So, basically no surprise, which means no volatility. We will… More…
We just saw the release of the Dec. Durable Goods report with a solid number at +3.1%. November's number was revised up to +2.2%. The Dollar got a little boost from the news and our trade, which entered during the morning Euro trading session, hit pt1 and half of our position was closed locking in +20 pips. … More…
With all of the significant data for the Dollar and Euro having been released today, it doesn't look like traders are excited about neither of these currencies. Again, we saw a slightly weaker German Ifo Business Climate Index number and… More…
We hit profitability last night as the Greenback gained broad strength against the majors during the morning Euro trading session. Both profit targets were easily hit for a total of +70 pips, even before we saw … More…
As expected, currencies broke out of their trading rangegs today and we managed to catch a reversal with today's trade. As soon as EUR/JPY hit pt1 the pair shot back up and triggered our break even stop. So, we have locked in 20 pips with half a position and...… More…
The Loonie unexpectedly sold off against the majors today. I can't seem to find the reasoning for the sell off at the moment, but whatever the case may be our trade was stopped out for a small -40 pips. Again, price action earlier alerted us to...… More…
As expected, USD/JPY did rally after the Bank of Japan decided to keep rates at 0.25%. Unfortunately for our trade, the pair didn't find resistance right at our stop, around 121.40. It looks like the fundamental aspect outweighed the technical aspect of the trade and...… More…
Our trade was triggered this morning as AUDUSD retraced as expected. US data came out this morning with the headline PPI number higher than expected at 0.9% and the core number slightly higher at 0.2%. The TIC data came out at a net $68.4 billion. Pretty good number, but way lower than the forecasts at roughly $82.5 billion. Also, the index of industrial production came out higher than expected at 0.4%. So ...… More…
Our trade triggered approximately 8:30 am EST this morning, but it looks like the pair has found resistance at 237.00. UK CPI reports came out better than expected, which appearantly did nothing to help our trade. Because price action isn't what I was expecting... … More…
Our trade triggered in the early US hours, and after weathering some whipsaw action, pt1 was hit! We closed the first half of our position and locked in +30 pips, then moved the stop on the second half of our trade to breakeven. The second half of our position...… More…
EURUSD spiked up this morning around 7:00 am EST, probably with the help of a surprise rate hike by the Bank of England to raise rates to 5.25% while ECB keeps rates at 3.50%. Our short trade was triggered at 1.3000 and pt1 was hit before Trichet's commentary. There was a lot to go through his speech, but basically he said the ECB will... … More…
We will close half of our position at .6870 to lock in +10 pips for half of our position. As we approach the end of the Euro trading session, price action continues to stall even after oil prices drop as oil inventories remain high. We will move our stop to... … More…
Our trade was stopped out at 1.5350 on falling oil prices this morning. With oil diving this morning to 54 dollars a barrel, I'm looking for USD to rise in the wake of this. Oil traders will continue to watch weather reports for any cold snaps to drive up prices, so keep an eye out for that. Stay tuned for a possible trade idea on this morning events, but for now we took -45 pips loss if you jumped in at the same price I did. … More…
Well, the market was expecting 100K (actually most were expecting much less after the ADP report came out at -40K), but the Non-Farm Payrolls report came out at a whopping 167K new jobs created in December! Crazy! This number blew everyone away and the dollar dropped almost 100 pips on EURUSD. … More…
ISM Non-Manufacturing numbers came out with less than stellar number of 57.1 versus 58.9 in November. That number definitely shows growth in the month of December, but at a slower pace. The market's reaction to the number was very "unspectacular", so I have decided… More…
It looks like dollar bullishness just continued at full steam as the greenback continued its rally and stopped out our trade. GBP/USD dropped almost all the way to 1.9400 before we finally saw a retracement of 50 pips. Also, we got no help as GBP PMI came out slightly better at 60.6. So, I was a little bit off in my timing in that I was looking for a retracement then dollar rally, but instead we got further dollar rally, then retracement...doh!… More…
We saw a rebound today in ISM Manufacturing Index when it came in at a surprising 51.4 versus the consensus of 50.0, showing slight growth in December from November. Also, the ISM manufacturing prices paid came in at 47.5 versus the consensus of 54.0 - this reflects slower demand and a let-up in raw material pressures. … More…
The second half of our trade stopped out at breakeven, so we gained +29 pips on the first half from our Euro session trade. We have ISM manufacturing coming out in the next ten minutes, and with the dollar rebounding during the Euro trading session on speculation of a stronger ISM number, I'm looking to go long to stay with the breakout and current short term dollar bullishness. I will wait for the ISM numbers to released and see if there are any viable short term setups.… More…
