At the end of each trading day, I will find what I believe is the best looking short term trade setup for the upcoming trading day. If you're a forex newbie, it can be tricky in the beginning trying to figure out how to look at charts and draw lines. My goal is help you understand the psychology of price movements so you can learn to analyze your own charts and trade on your very own. Trades will be posted by 1 am ET, Monday through Thursday evening.
Read First: Trade Rules!!
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With such strong positive US data today, I have decided to close the trade since the reports came out against my short dollar bias and the pair will probably continue to linger around 1.9600 price area for the rest of the day. The current market rate is approximately 1.9595 -You may close yours out at your descretion. This will be the last trade of the week as there are no significant reports lined up tomorrow.... Too bad we couldn't finish the year out strong, but I am very hopefull for 2007....… More…
Tomorrow morning we have a slew of economic reports coming out of the US - most notably the US Consumer Confidence report, Existing Home Sales, and the Chicago PMI (Big Pippin did a great job with a brief analysis in his post today of all three reports). Basically, the forecasts are calling for strong numbers and we may see a continued end of year rally in the greenback. … More…
We saw disappointing data from Canada this morning as retail sales came out at -0.7% versus the forecast number of -0.4% and GDP came in at 0.0% versus the forecast of 0.1%. So, we saw USD/CAD jump up 30 pips shortly after the report, stopping out the second half of our trade at 1.1515. So, for those of you who didn't get to move your stop to breakeven after pt1 was hit - like me - we made +20 pips on the first half and -35 pips on the second for a total of -15 pips. … More…
No pick for tonight. With the lack of any major news reports and as traders get ready for the holiday season, I don't see any potential trading opportunites within the next few hours. We do have the Bank of England Meeting Minutes at 4:30 am EST, in which the market has predicted that it was a 9 - 0 vote to keep interest rates unchanged. This event does have market moving potential, as it may hint at future interest rate moves, but we will wait until after the report to see the markets reaction and if there are any potential trade opportunities. Until then stay tuned!… More…
As expected, USD/CHF continued to drift lower and is now currently trading approximately at 1.2115. For those of you who stayed in the trade - good job! But, as we approach the Euro trading session, you may want to limit your risk by adjusting your stop loss, closing part of your position, or closing your trade all together. … More…
Tonight's Pick will be a continuation of yesterday's short trade idea of USD/JPY after the US Current Account number was released. Again, we took off a small profit of 10 to 15 pips in the first half of our trade, move our stops to break even, and adjusted our pt1 to 117.70. We'll see what happens after the BoJ interest rate decision and comments from BoJ Governor Fukui soon afterwards. So, we'll keep our exit strategy the same and see what happens. … More…
Update - 9:30 am EST US CPI data has come and gone and we saw the dollar drop on flat CPI numbers. Unfortunately, it's a little too late to jump in long at 1.2125 as i posted on my trade update. For those of you who did decide to buy at 1.2125, please set your target for 1.2180 which is coming up pretty quick at the current market price… More…
I was expecting a higher number than expected, but today's headline US Retail sales number for November came out at a whopping 1.0% higher, and the core number came out at 1.1% (For a more indepth analysis of today's reports check out Big Pippin's Blog). Pretty crazy!!! … More…
Today's trade will focus on US retail sales at 8:30 am EST, but before that we will take a look on how yesterday's reports may affect today's trade. First, we saw a surprise as the US Trade Balance number was reported at -58.87 bln versus the consensus of -63.0 bln. We haven't seen a figure that low since August 2005, and it is consistent with the uptrend in the past few reports.… More…
We have so many different themes in the market - from the US economy, US pressure on China's currency, rising commodity prices, etc - that many possible trade opportunities exist out there. But we do have the FOMC rate decision tomorrow at 2:15 pm EST, and we should see a muted trading environment as the market waits for the Fed's outlook on inflation, the economy and future interest rate moves. … More…
Today was a wild ride wasn't it?? It was like those old FX days of crazy volatility that we haven't seen much of lately. NFP came out pretty much in line with consensus, but there was a downward revision of Oct number to 79K from 92K. So, we saw some volatility after the NFP reports, but the mother of all moves came after US Treasury Secretary Paulson commented on how a "strong dollar" is in the best interest of the US, and how today's reports was good news for the US economy. … More…
Update: 10:37 am EST Our short trade was triggered at 1.3350 and we hit pt1 for +40 pips....Holla! I closed out my position because this retracement may not move much further, but for those of you still in the trade I would adjust your stops to breakeven or close your position at your discretion.… More…
We have the monster of all reports tomorrow in the US Non-Farm Payrolls! For this report, I usually wait until the number is released and guage the market reaction looking to fade the move, so that's what we will do tomorrow.… More…
No surprise today as the European Central Bank followed market expectations by raising interest rates from 3.25% to 3.50%. We saw minor volatility afterwards as the pair moved in between a 40 pip range even. With the Eurozone's strong economy and analysts expectations of a strong US jobs number tomorrow, EUR/USD will probably stay range bound for the rest of day as traders are uncertain of direction. So, no trade for today and we will get ready and focus for the US Non-Farm Payrolls report tomorrow at 8:30 am EST.… More…
No "Pick of the Day" for the Euro trading session tonight as traders wait in anticipation for the Bank of England and European Central Bank interest rate decisions tomorrow. We will focus mainly on the ECB's decision and Trichet's statement tomorrow morning, after which we will trade based on the market reaction of the widely expected raise from 3.25% to 3.5%. The key to tomorrow's movement is whether or not Trichet will use a less hawkish tone, and the future projections of Eurozone growth and inflation will be closely watched as well. … More…
The UK Industrial and manufacturing sector numbers came out worse that expected, after which Cable dropped as the manufacturing sector may have a negative impact on fourth quarter GDP. Our trade was triggered and we had hoped to play a range strategy. Unfortunately, the market dipped low enough to trigger our stop loss right before the pair shot back up, which eventually shot back up to hit pt1… More…
In the next couple of trading sessions, traders are expecting a range bound market as there aren't any significant economic reports to be released until the interest rate statements from the BOE and ECB, and the US Non-Farm Payroll release on Friday. We do have a couple of reports out of the UK that may be significant - Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production - both of which are released at 4:30 am EST. … More…
I guess because of the new site and my ability to post trade updates on the site, I got a little crazy with today's "Pick of the Day." My analysis of the current market environment led me to believe that we would see a further drop as I expected a drop in the ISM service sector number. … More…
I was away from my computer at the release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index number, which happened to come out better than expected at 58.9. 58.9!!! Great for Dollar bulls, but unfortunately not so good for my pick of the day. So, I wasn't able to close the trade out right after the release and it looks like we took the full loss when the pair stopped out.… More…
It looks like we got off to a good start for the month of December as we won our first trade. We used a different position management technique on this trade. We shorted one lot instead of the usual two and incorporated a wider stop loss level. This new trade style helped us weather a correction in USD/JPY before it dropped again after the weak ISM Manufacturing Index number at 10:00 am EST on Friday, and we managed to hit pt2 for +60 pips! … More…
