Will Third Time be the Charm on the GBPUSD? – Trade Closed

Trade Idea: 2010-07-01 23:11

PoD Chart

I was already up 150 pips on my trade. I thought I was going to go off into the weekend with my trade comfortably ahead. I thought this was going to be my TRADE OF THE YEAR!

Ah, well, I was wrong.

Cable rose yesterday, as the dollar was sold off like Katy Perry’s number 1 single California Girls. I’m flabbergasted, astonished, amazed, confuzzled… whatever long highfalutin adjective you can think of, that’s what I am feeling right now!

At the very least, I’m happy that I was able to avoid a loss on this trade. The pair is now touching top of the channel at 1.5200… I don’t know whether I should short again. Those green candles are just too bullish in my opinion!

Total: 0 pips/ 0% gain

In any case, this didn’t turn out to be my TRADE OF THE YEAR… But that doesn’t mean I can’t have any more ideas, right? So, I leave you with that my lovely readers…. Stay tuned for the next edition of Huck’s TRADE OF THE YEAR!

Trade Update: 2010-06-30 23:04

That was close! After being down almost 100 pips on my GBPUSD trade, the pair has finally reversed and now I’m up! Time to play it safe and my stop to breakeven!

I was a lil bummed to see how other majors were falling but the pound just kept rising! I couldn’t figure it out! The pair rose all the way to 1.5130 and I thought I was going to get stopped out again!

Well, thanks to some comments made some dude over at the BOE, I got the nice push that I needed for GBPUSD to fall. Apparently, not everything is Bella and Edward (my new term for “rosy and beautiful”) in the UK. This finally led to some pound selling. Combining this with overall market sentiment, what do we get?

Huck’s up 100+ pips now! Woohoo!

Now, after watching the results of Happy Pip‘s and Cyclopip‘s trades, I’ve decided to play this safe and move my stop already. Markets are too crazy right now and I don’t wanna get caught up.

The one thing that I’m thinking about right now is whether I should add to my position or not. I think we could see more poor data from the NFP report, which could mean another round of risk aversion. Hmmm… decisions, decisions. What’s a girl to do?? It’s just like choosing between Jacob and Edward. It’s impossible!

Trade Idea: 2010-06-23 23:42

PoD Chart

Third time’s a charm?!? In my last two cable trades, I didn’t get triggered on the first, stopped at breakeven on the second. This time, I’m confident that I’ve got a winner on my hands. I repeat, this will be my trade of the year!

I’ve popped up the Fibonacci tool and it looks like price is approaching the 61.8% level. I’ve done some multiple time frame analysis, and it looks like the pair overbought on all the time frames. It’s about time for sellers to come in and bring price back down! Not only that, but I think I’ve spotted some bearish divergence forming, with price showing lower highs and stochastics showing higher highs.

I’ve put my order in at 1.5030, just below the Fib level. My stop is at 1.5200, as I want to give this trade some room to breathe. This would be equal to 170 pips, which is roughly equal to the pair’s daily average true range. I’ve set my first take profit point at 1.4800, which seems have been an area of interest in the past. For my second position, I’ll put a trailing stop once my first profit target is hit.

I’m still fundamentally bearish on the pound because their government’s proposed austerity measures could leave a huge dent on their economy. Even though Chancellor Osborne insisted that their economy could still post a 1.2% GDP growth amidst the spending cuts and tax hikes, I have a nasty hunch that those belt-tightening measures would hurt spending and production. In fact, I’m having a tough time figuring out why the pound staged a strong rally recently. But, as Pip Diddy pointed out in today’s roundup, that surge was most likely spurred by policymaker Andrew Sentence’s vote to hike rates.

The coast is clear for the UK today and tomorrow in terms of economic releases. No red flags out there! The only report due today is the Bank of England’s Financial Stability report, which could highlight the weaknesses in the UK’s finances and help my trade.

Once again, here are the details for my TRADE OF THE YEAR (hopefully):

Short GBPUSD at 1.5030, stop at 1.5200, take profit at 1.4800

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  • mastergunner99

    I questioned your position last time on this, yet the very next day I found myself shorting it as I saw my own opportunity to short. You were lucky to break even, I took a hit on that one.

    I do agree with you that it’s about time for this to take a dive. On my blog I have a similar idea that price has to move up yet before falling back down.

    My question is more or less a question of curiosity. Why not let price bounce first off the point of resistance before entering the trade?

    I’ll probably find myself short in this pair before the week is done. Good luck to the both of us.

  • personalme

    Make it three then. We’re on the same spot. Same limit order with different SL. Hopefully it will be OURS trade of the year!

  • MrMordy

    I’ve gone short on this, fingers crossed ^^

  • mastergunner99

    I questioned your position last time on this, yet the very next day I found myself shorting it as I saw my own opportunity to short. You were lucky to break even, I took a hit on that one.

    I do agree with you that it’s about time for this to take a dive. On my blog I have a similar idea that price has to move up yet before falling back down.

    My question is more or less a question of curiosity. Why not let price bounce first off the point of resistance before entering the trade?

    I’ll probably find myself short in this pair before the week is done. Good luck to the both of us.

  • personalme

    Make it three then. We’re on the same spot. Same limit order with different SL. Hopefully it will be OURS trade of the year!

  • Newbornbabytrader

    go short at 1.5140; you ll be much happier and it may become trade of the decade. good luck to you all.

  • MrMordy

    I’ve gone short on this, fingers crossed ^^

  • Huck

    Let’s do this guys!!!

    @mastergunner Unfortunately, I do not have the luxury of “waiting for a bounce” before entering. I do have a job so limit orders are the way to go for me. As much as I want to watch charts all day, I can’t. :(

  • Newbornbabytrader

    go short at 1.5140; you ll be much happier and it may become trade of the decade. good luck to you all.

  • Huck

    Let’s do this guys!!!

    @mastergunner Unfortunately, I do not have the luxury of “waiting for a bounce” before entering. I do have a job so limit orders are the way to go for me. As much as I want to watch charts all day, I can’t. :(

  • lasereyes

    Make that stop wider, 1.5240 is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 5 wave move down that started in November, so it is likely that it could reach that high before continuing down.

  • lasereyes

    Make that stop wider, 1.5240 is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 5 wave move down that started in November, so it is likely that it could reach that high before continuing down.

  • geosanuy

    Would never enter at above 1.5000 psych, much better to have a ceiling above in a short, I’d make it 4979 and get better confirmation and have the 00 and 80 levels above. As for the SL I never, ever go above ADR/3,about 60 pips on G/U at this point.
    Anyway my 2 cents, good luck!

  • geosanuy

    Would never enter at above 1.5000 psych, much better to have a ceiling above in a short, I’d make it 4979 and get better confirmation and have the 00 and 80 levels above. As for the SL I never, ever go above ADR/3,about 60 pips on G/U at this point.
    Anyway my 2 cents, good luck!

  • Newbornbabytrader

    My analysis getting better and better. got short at 1.5130. told ya about my trade of the decade. lolz

  • Newbornbabytrader

    Now at breakeven, lets see where do we go from here?

  • Newbornbabytrader

    My analysis getting better and better. got short at 1.5130. told ya about my trade of the decade. lolz

  • Newbornbabytrader

    Now at breakeven, lets see where do we go from here?

  • Huck

    Now at positive… Let’s see if the bears have enough juice in them to push the pair lower!

  • Huck

    Now at positive… Let’s see if the bears have enough juice in them to push the pair lower!

  • calcal168

    I don’t think this is called bearish divergence on the oscillator. The price just making lower high so it is not bearish divergence. Any comment?

    Thanks!

  • Newbornbabytrader

    stopped out at +100pips profit :(

  • calcal168

    I don’t think this is called bearish divergence on the oscillator. The price just making lower high so it is not bearish divergence. Any comment?

    Thanks!

  • Newbornbabytrader

    stopped out at +100pips profit :(

  • Huck

    @calcal168 At that time I made the trade, price was making lower highs, while stochastics (slow, 14, 3, 3) was making higher high. I saw it as a bearish divergence. :D

    @Newbornbabytrader Good for you. I wasn’t able to capitalize on it because I thought it would fall more after retracing a bit. :( I feel down… sort of.

  • Huck

    @calcal168 At that time I made the trade, price was making lower highs, while stochastics (slow, 14, 3, 3) was making higher high. I saw it as a bearish divergence. :D

    @Newbornbabytrader Good for you. I wasn’t able to capitalize on it because I thought it would fall more after retracing a bit. :( I feel down… sort of.