Trade idea: 2012-8-2 23:57
I’ve been wrong a lot lately, so this time I’m gonna play it safe. My account has taken a hit with three straight losses. But hopefully, this time around, I’ll be able to score a win
My plan is to buy GBP/USD. If you zoom out to the 4-hour timeframe, you’ll actually see the pair making higher lows. A rising trend line also becomes apparent when you connect them. I’m anticipating the pair to find some support at it, around 1.5500.
But I don’t want to get ahead of myself so I won’t pull the trigger until I see reversal candlesticks materialize around the psychological handle. I have the candlestick cheat sheet from the School of Pipsology printed so I know what to look for!
Another reason I’m very cautious on going long is because of the Bank of England (BOE)‘s interest rate decision later. It’s widely expected that the central bank will hold rates at 0.50% and hold off on any additional stimulus measures.
If the BOE doesn’t say anything bearish and drops clues that its quantitative easing program is working, the pound could rally. On the other hand, if the central bank shows concern on the economy, the pound could sell-off again. I think anything can happen really!
In any case, if I do decide to buy the pair, I’ll set my stop well below its most recent low at 1.5440. Should price go down to this level, my trade idea would already be invalidated as it would mean that support at the trend line failed. As for my profit target, I’ll be aiming for the resistance area around 1.5720.
To recap, my plan is to:
Buy GBP/USD at 1.5500, SL at 1.5440, PT at 1.5720. Risk 1%. Risk disclosure.