Waiting for the Fiber’s Retracement – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2010-04-12 22:55

PoD Chart

As all of you probably know by now, the EURUSD gapped up almost 100 pips over the weekend when news that Greece was going to receive a combined $61 billion aid package from the EU and IMF broke out.

And silly me – I actually thought the EURUSD would actually gap DOWN because Greece’s sovereign credit rating was downgraded to BBB- from BBB+ by Fitch! I guess that just goes to show how unpredictable the foreign exchange market can be. So much for my nice technical short play!

Total: -100 pips / 1.00% loss

Ugh, my account hardly changed from the start of the month. Win, lose, win, lose…

How am I ever going to be the most popular kid in the BabyPips Middle School of Pipsology!? I just saw “Diary of a Wimpy Kid” this past weekend. It was alright and it certainly does remind you of those days when being “cool” was getting noticed in the yearbook! Nowadays, what’s important is grabbin those pips and making my way to the top of the MeetPips.com pip count!

Trade Adjustment: 2010-04-08 22:45

PoD Chart

Sadly, I was unable to ride the down move on the EURUSD as the bears were too strong! But.. but, that doesn’t mean that I’m going to walk away of this trade. No siree! I decided pull up some fibs on a longer time frame and whatdja know, the 61.8% fib nicely lines up with my desired entry point.

With that said, I adjust my entry, my stop and my profit target for a better profit-loss ratio and to match the falling trend line. Here is my new plan:

Short EURUSD at 1.3460, stop at 1.3560, tp1 at 1.3300, tp2 at 1.3000

Yeah, I know… Those are pretty bold profit targets! I’ll be keeping an eye out for any new fundamental developments and make adjustments along the way.

Trade Idea: 2010-04-06 23:04

PoD Chart

A retest of the head and shoulders‘ neckline looks like a nice short play for the EURUSD. With momentum heading north as indicated in the stochastics, the pair still has some room to move higher before heading south again. The neckline is also in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level that I drew, making it a tougher resistance to hurdle.

Fundamentally, the euro has taken some hits this week as concerns regarding Greece have resurfaced. Apparently, rumors are that the Greeks want to bypass help from the IMF. This has caused confusion in the markets, which of course doesn’t bode well for the euro.

Looking ahead, we’ve got some top tier reports and events coming out that could cause a lot of volatility in the markets. Germany factory orders, and retail sales data will be released over the next couple of days, while the ECB will be making its interest rate statement tomorrow. I’m willing to bet the $1 dollar in my wallet that some comments about Greece will be made. Lastly, we’ve got Ben Bernanke‘s speech tonight, which may just provide the volatility needed to help my trade get triggered.

I’m placing a short entry right at the neckline at 1.3470 with my stop loss at 1.3550 which is above the 61.8% Fib level. I’m also setting my target profits at 1.3360 and 1.3270 which are yesterday’s low and last week’s low, respectively.

Here’s my plan:

Short EURUSD at 1.3470, stop at 1.3550, tp1 at 1.3360, tp2 at 1.3270

Spoilers ahead! For all those who watched “Clash of the Titans” – where the heck are the titans?! It was more like a clash of that guy in Avatar and Ralph Fiennes!

Anyway, thanks for checking out my blog! By the way, you can also view my trades and updates on MeetPips.com!

  • sunglow

    Hi Huck. You say that your account has hardly changed this month with two wins and two losses. That seems to suggest that your losses are equal to your wins. Is this the case? Are you setting your stop losses in the region of your profit targets or is it more complicated than that in that you seem to have two profit targets, part one and part two. Have you been hitting one and not the other? What I am thinking is that this month you have been right 50% of the time. If your stop losses had been set tighter than your profit target, you would still be in profit.

  • sunglow

    Hi Huck. You say that your account has hardly changed this month with two wins and two losses. That seems to suggest that your losses are equal to your wins. Is this the case? Are you setting your stop losses in the region of your profit targets or is it more complicated than that in that you seem to have two profit targets, part one and part two. Have you been hitting one and not the other? What I am thinking is that this month you have been right 50% of the time. If your stop losses had been set tighter than your profit target, you would still be in profit.