USDJPY: Jumping on a Retracement – Trade Closed at BE

Trade Closed: 2010-9-26 23:12

PoD Chart

OH MY GOSH! From 84 pips to 1! I was more than halfway to reaching my profit target when the pair retreated from an intraday high of 85.39 down to its pre-intervention levels.

Uh, I think it’s getting misty in here, and it’s not because of my mascara. I was expecting that BOJ’s second shot at intervention would rock the charts harder than the first time and hit my PT. But nooo… I so wanna cry! But then again, I guess breakeven is better than a loss. Maybe next time I’ll get lucky. I’ve got my make-up smeared eyes on you BOJ, I’ve got it on you.

Trade Idea: 2010-9-23 23:21

PoD Chart

Is it just my new mascara clouding up my eyes or is that a bullish divergence on USDJPY on the 4-hour chart? My, oh my! With stochastics making lower lows and price making higher lows, I don’t think I need to buy more eye make-up anytime soon. However, I do think it’s time for me to buy USDJPY!

It seems to me that USDJPY is ripe for the picking now that it has retraced enough of its gains from last week. Price just bounced from the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level and stochastics show that the pair is in oversold territory already. I was a tad bit scared that the bull train will leave little ole me behind, so I entered at market (84.55).

To give my trade some breathing room, so I placed it below the 61.8% Fib at 83.75 which is equal to the pair’s daily average true range of 80 pips. As for my profit target, I’ll be aiming for last week’s highs at 85.80. Wish me luck!

Fundamentally, I believe that the BOJ is still lurking around markets, watching USDJPY careful. In the event that the pair dips to unwanted levels, we just may see the BOJ step in again and sell some yen. Hopefully, the prospect of currency intervention will spook traders enough to buy the yen.

I’m also looking out for the weekly initial jobless claims and the existing home sales scheduled to print later. If these reports come in better than forecast, we could see USDJPY pop higher.

Long at market (84.55), pt at 85.80, sl at 83.75. As usual, I will risk only 1% of my account.

Huck, huck, and awaaaaaaaaay! Wish me luck!

  • jonboy700

    Huck,
    I’ve benefited from your articles and trades over times past and I like that smooth HLHB system. Yet, I’ll respectfully forward that I’m including some shorter profit-taking targets to carry away. Its usually around 40-60 pip increments max.(depending on my assessment of the situation) until the target is reached or it looks like the end. I’m seeing some traders religiously moving only in 15-30 pip increments with only the 3 increment S/L moved to break even. Its a pretty rigid risk-management style but its worth evaluating.
    Keep up the marvelous reports.

  • jonboy700

    Huck,
    I’ve benefited from your articles and trades over times past and I like that smooth HLHB system. Yet, I’ll respectfully forward that I’m including some shorter profit-taking targets to carry away. Its usually around 40-60 pip increments max.(depending on my assessment of the situation) until the target is reached or it looks like the end. I’m seeing some traders religiously moving only in 15-30 pip increments with only the 3 increment S/L moved to break even. Its a pretty rigid risk-management style but its worth evaluating.
    Keep up the marvelous reports.

  • Huck

    As long as it works, jonboy… As long as it works! :D

  • Huck

    As long as it works, jonboy… As long as it works! :D