The HLHB System Version 2.0 – Backtesting Updates

Hi guys! Just as I promised, I found a bit of time earlier this week to get some backtesting done on HLHB system version 2. I’m not completely done backtesting all the data from late 2008, but so far, the results aren’t looking too good.

I’ve been sort of caught up with other things the past couple of days. Some of you may be interested (maybe even delighted?) to know that I’ve decided to go for the assistant manager opening in the coffee shop where I work. Yesterday, I took a look at my resume, and it clearly needs a bit of work and updating… just like HLHB system version 2! The results haven’t been as impressive as I thought they would be.

But as I’ve said, I haven’t finished backtesting yet, so nothing’s final as of this moment. I’ll probably be able to wrap up the backtesting next week. If the stats aren’t up to par, I may need to tweak my system some more. I hope I can count on you guys to throw a few comments and suggestions my way if and when I decide to make adjustments! Pretty please??

Anyway, did you guys make any pips from all the chaos in Egypt? That was simply crazy! Who would’ve thought that a single man could inspire such bad vibes? Then again maybe the citizens are just miffed because they can’t tweet or play Farmville anymore…

Just when risk appetite in markets started gaining momentum on speculations that protests in Egypt will end, a sudden burst of riots soon sparked risk aversion back and took its toll on the high-yielding currencies except the oil-related Loonie. This boosted the euro and pound for a while, because markets thought that rising commodity prices would make the ECB and BOE raise interest rates sooner than they planned.

And boy were they wrong! ECB President Trichet put a stopper on rate hike speculations last Thursday, which sent the euro reeling down the charts. Meanwhile, all eyes are now on the NFP report as markets gauge the speed of the recovery of employment conditions in the U.S.

Now let me wrap up my blog with an update on my USD/JPY trade:

USD/JPY Chart

As of this writing, the pair is below my entry price as it seems like resistance at the 82.00 psychological handle was too much for the bulls to handle. Yikes! But I think I’ll keep my trade open for the NFP report.

I feel that there’s a good chance that we’ll see a better-than-expected figure. Because aside from the positive leading indicators that Forex Gump enumerated in his blog, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI and unemployment claims reports yesterday also overshot expectations.

Maybe a stellar NFP figure could convince the Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to ease up a little bit on his usual oh-so pessimistic tone when he talks about the economy on Tuesday next week too. If he does, maybe I can short GBP/USD which looks like it’s testing resistance at the falling trend line and could form a double top on the daily time frame.

GBP/USD Chart

That’s just an idea though. I will have to read up on the upcoming BOE MPC statement which could rock the pound’s socks.

Anyway, that’s all I have for you this week. I’ve got an early shift in the coffee shop today but please keep your comments coming! I’ll be sure to check them out. Skadoosh!


  • crollo3

    Anyone every use Polarized Fractal Efficiency? I use it with RSI for Confirmation. Parabolic Sar with Heikien Ashi candles to eyeball the trend. I’ll add the ADX to see it it gives me any good signals.

  • crollo3

    Forgot to mention Bollinger Bands. I don’t consider jumping in until it pierces the lower band twice.

  • crollo3

    Anyone every use Polarized Fractal Efficiency? I use it with RSI for Confirmation. Parabolic Sar with Heikien Ashi candles to eyeball the trend. I’ll add the ADX to see it it gives me any good signals.

  • crollo3

    Forgot to mention Bollinger Bands. I don’t consider jumping in until it pierces the lower band twice.

  • sunglow

    Writing from England, do not expect any surprises from the BOE. Mervyn King is very much against raising interest rates and is prepared to let inflation rip.

    So far as the assistant manager’s position is concerned, update your CV and go for it!

  • sunglow

    Writing from England, do not expect any surprises from the BOE. Mervyn King is very much against raising interest rates and is prepared to let inflation rip.

    So far as the assistant manager’s position is concerned, update your CV and go for it!