Swing Trade On EUR/USD

Trade Idea: 2012-5-3 03:25

EUR/USD Chart

Isn’t that a beaut? Looking at the daily chart of EUR/USD, there’s a very clear falling trend line. It has been tested many times but price has been unable to break through. Price was pushed down every time, and for each instance, Stochastic showed that conditions were overbought. I suspect the same thing will happen again!

I believe that the ECB Statement due later will prime euro bears to start charging.

I know that no one is expecting a rate cut for today. However, with bond yields rising, concerns on economic growth, and political instability plaguing Europe, I won’t be surprised if ECB President Mario Draghi drops hints about cutting interest rates soon. Heck, he may even talk about how the central bank would soon need to launch another liquidity program to support the economy!

If I’m right, I have a feeling that we’ll see the effects of Draghi’s potentially dovish remarks haunt the euro for some time.

So based on my technical and fundamental analysis, I’m going to short the pair. I sold it at market with my stop just above the falling trend line. I’m hoping for at least 1.3000 and if it breaks that I’ll add to my position.

To recap:

Short at market (1.3157), initial profit target at 1.3000, stop loss at 1.3300. I will risk 1% of my account. (Risk disclosure.)

Lemme know what you think of my trade idea!

XOXO,

Huck

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10 comments

  1. riyan84

    nice move huck, by now the price is continue to down, i think if the price can handle below 1.3100 till today US market close then 1.3000 will be good target, but 1.3050 (support) need to be considered.. it will better with trailing stop.. good luck huck!

    Reply
    • Shawn

      Her original analysis was that the ECB statement would cause selling but that was not the case. The pair spike upwards instead. Even the NFP had cause a spike. The selling was mainly cause by worries about the poll result for French and Greece .

      Reply
  2. Hucklekiwi Piphuck Post author

    Thanks for the motivating comments guys. Glad it went the way I wanted it to go… Let’s see if it’s going to continue lower. For now, I’ll just move my stop to breakeven. I’ll think of adding later on. 

    Reply
    • Soulreaction02

      good to you Huck, more or less technicals triumph news more often as the news always come later than the rumors. Those forex millionaires which i came across don’t trade news badly……

      Good set up you have there.

      Reply
  3. Sebastian

    I am still on the demo version but love this long term trading. Very good move from my point of view. 

    Reply
  4. Guest

    So far this short trade is looking mighty sweet …. I would be taking profits on part of the position.. but also would be looking for a chance to add to the short trade… with some serious caution around the NFP time…hmmm

    Reply
  5. alwjmonster

    hi huck, i would suggest you to close this trade before US session friday. cause many were expecting non-form payroll to print weaker than expect and could obviously spark USD sell off. sorry for poor english, i’m an asian boy.

    Reply

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