Trade Closed: 2010-03-08 21:358
Phew, this trade had me shaking like a rattlesnake’s tail the whole time!
It started off poorly, when price broke out of the top range. Fortunately, I gave my trade enough breathing room to prevent me from getting stopped out.
Like I mentioned in my weekly update, I got super scared that it would turn out like my last two trades, wherein I missed my profit target by one measly pip so I decided to lock in profits earlier. As it turns out, however, my profit target was soon hit. I’m just relieved though, for ending up with a win than a loss.
Closed 1st half at 0.1.3562: +118 pips
Closed 2nd half at breakeven: +0 pips
Total: 59 pips – 0.93% Gain
As you might have guessed, I just watched Alice in Wonderland recently. I absolutely loved it – Johnny Depp was amazing! Anyway, I’m going to be tuned in to the Oscars – I wonder what’s going to win Best Picture! I’m excited!
Trade Idea: 2010-03-01 22:32
I took a look at Big Pippin’s chart art today here and it seems that EURUSD is now trading within a range. It has tested support at around 1.3460 three times already. Will the range hold? I hope so! With stochastics showing upward momentum, I think we could see price action move up again before finding resistance at around 1.3680. This is where I’m placing my limit entry order. I’m going to go with a relatively tight stop loss, putting my stop at 1.3740. If price breaks the 1.3740 handle, I think we could see a strong breakout. My first take profit points at 1.3550, this week’s opening price, with my ultimate target being the bottom of the range at 1.3465. I want my pips!
Fundamentally, only a couple of low key reports from the euro zone, namely their CPI flash estimate and PPI, are on today’s agenda. Their CPI flash estimate could show that price levels are still expected to climb by an annualized 1.0% while the PPI could post a 0.7% uptick for February. Although the ongoing Greek debt drama could continue to weigh on the euro, additional volatility this week could push the price up to my entry order. I’m also keeping a close watch on Germany and euro zone’s retail sales reports due Wednesday since these could print declines and reinforce the bearish sentiment for the euro zone. Aside from that, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet‘s rate statement this week could highlight the prevailing financial and economic concerns in the region.
However, we’ll be seeing some fireworks as the non-farm payrolls report in the US will be released on Friday! Traders will be watching this and I think, whether it comes out worse or better than expected, we would see the dollar rally. If the actual number fails to meet expectations, risk aversion could surge and push the dollar higher. On the other hand, if the report comes out with an upside surprise, this could give more evidence that the US is performing better than other major currencies.
Again, here’s my master plan:
Short EURUSD at 1.3680, stop at 1.3740, take profit at 1.3550 and 1.3465