Riding the Kiwi Wave Lower – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2010-03-01 21:45

PoD Chart

Darn! Looks like I got stopped out on the remaining position on my NZDUSD trade. Oh well, at least overall I won on the trade.

In hindsight, I probably held on to this trade too long. Aiming for 0.6815 might have also been a little too ambitious, considering that the com-dolls have been fairing pretty well against the dollar lately. Maybe I should have used a trailing stop instead, as price did go down to as low as 0.6848. Maybe 0.6850 would have been a better target?

I’m just a little disappointed because I let some of my profits go in both this trade and my EURUSD trade. Was I being a little bit too ambitious? Then again, like Big Pippin pointed out in today’s chart art, it looks like the pair is moving towards the top of the symmetrical triangle – probably an opportunity to short at a better price. What do you guys think?


Closed 1st half at 0.6900: +100 pips
Closed 2nd half at 0.7000: +0 pips

Total: 0.50% gain

Trade Update: 2010-02-23 22:35

After missing out on my take profit point last week by a single pip, I finally hit it yesterday! Yahoo! I have to admit though, I think I got lucky as the pair not only zoomed back up to test the resistance, but went as high as 0.7050 yesterday before dropping!

Apparently, the consumer confidence index came out worse than expected, which caused risk aversion to take over. This helped out my trade, as equities and commodities fell. I’ve still got my second position open and I’m going to move my stop loss to my entry point to essentially create a risk free trade. Hope this works out for me!

Trade idea: 2010-02-10 22:35

PoD Chart

I spy with my little eye something that begins with the letter R. Is it a rabbit? No! Is it a rock? Is it a raspberry? No! Is it a retracement? You betcha!

Looking at the charts, the pair has retraced and is sitting between the 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. My plan is to short at 0.7000, which was a former support level that could act as resistance now. Also, stochastics is almost in overbought territory, which means that this recent upmove could possibly be coming to an end.

I’m placing my stop 100 pips away, past the 76.4% Fibonacci level. If price reaches this point, I feel that the pair would probably continue to shoot higher. My first take profit point will be at the weekly open price at 0.6900, while my 2nd take profit point is 0.6815, just above the recent swing low.

An event risk to watch out for is the release of New Zealand’s retail sales report at 9:45 pm GMT today. The December sales report could print a 0.7% increase in retail sales and a 0.3% rise in core retail sales, which would be lower than the 0.8% growth seen in November. However, with the employment report posting more job losses in December, we might be in for weaker than expected retail sales figures.

Furthermore, US dollar buying could resume tomorrow, upon the release of the US retail sales report. It is expected to show 0.4% growth in retail sales and core retail sales for January after seeing mild dips in the previous month.

Again, here’s my plan:

Short NZDUSD at 0.7000, stop at 0.7100, take profit at 0.6900 and 0.6815

  • kylefoley76

    Hi Noob,
    sorry if i offend but how about being a little more ambitious with your targets? shoot for 75% of the former impulse wave which was 440 pips, meaning aim for 330 pips or .6640

  • Huck

    @kylefoley76 No worries, I am not offended! I love feedback. Yeah, some others are also telling me to be more ambitious with my targets but I’m scared I might not hit it… :(

  • kylefoley76

    i measured 468 waves in the usd/jpy and 208 waves in the eur/usd. the study is presented here.

    http://www.informedtrades.com/509726-analysis-208-waves-usd-jpy.html

  • Huck

    @kylefoley76 No worries, I am not offended! I love feedback. Yeah, some others are also telling me to be more ambitious with my targets but I’m scared I might not hit it… :(

  • kylefoley76

    i measured 468 waves in the usd/jpy and 208 waves in the eur/usd. the study is presented here.

    http://www.informedtrades.com/509726-analysis-208-waves-usd-jpy.html

  • fed

    it is a great setup, I am also on this trade, so far it is not doing much but siting on the 7000 line and I am eyeing for the first TP at least to secure some pips. Things could slow for jpy pairs due to Bank holiday in Japan.

  • jazeppi79

    Are you still in this Kiwi/USD trade? I haven’t seen any more posts.

  • jazeppi79

    Are you still in this Kiwi/USD trade? I haven’t seen any more posts.

  • Huck

    Yes, I am still in it. My first pt just got hit! Yipee!

  • Huck

    Yes, I am still in it. My first pt just got hit! Yipee!

  • rahlabi

    i am clueless and i want this game badly.I dont know how to use fibs can someone help me learn the basics, i am not sure even the school was clear enough, i am desparate guys.

  • rahlabi

    i am clueless and i want this game badly.I dont know how to use fibs can someone help me learn the basics, i am not sure even the school was clear enough, i am desparate guys.

  • Huck

    How about looking at some of the old trade ideas of the FX-Men (Pipcrawler, Happy Pip and Cyclopip! You’ll get a hang of it! Just a bit of practice. :)

  • Huck

    How about looking at some of the old trade ideas of the FX-Men (Pipcrawler, Happy Pip and Cyclopip! You’ll get a hang of it! Just a bit of practice. :)