Jumping in on the GBPUSD Downtrend! – Trade Busted

Trade Closed: 2010-03-31 23:05

PoD Chart

As expected, the good results from the UK helped my trade get triggered. The GDP report printed better than expected results, as the UK economy grew by 0.4% instead of 0.3% last quarter. The big news came though, from the current account, which printed that the trade deficit fell from £5.9 billion to just £1.7 billion!

I was pretty optimistic though – it looked like the 50.0 Fib level was going to hold, as price consolidated there for a bit. Unfortunately, the dollar took a beating yesterday, letting the pound gain for the third day in a row as the GBPUSD rose more than 100 pips! The pound has now risen by 300 pips since its low for the week! What gives!?

Total: -110 pips / 1.00% loss

I’m a little disappointed with this loss as I was getting used to winning trades. But I do understand that you can’t win them all. I do think my analysis was alright, but I just got blind sided by this pound strength.

It’s totally cool though – I’ll shake it off. You can’t win them all, right? After all, my USDJPY long is looking great!

Anyway, time to enjoy the weekend. I’ll be catching up with TV shows and movies. I haven’t gotten around to watching The Pacific yet, but I’ve got that recorded on the DVR. Thanks for reading my blog! Till next time!

Trade Idea: 2010-03-29 22:54

PoD Chart

I popped up a 4-hour chart on the GBPUSD, and I think I see an opportunity to jump in on the downtrend! I wanna end the 1st quarter with a bang!

Thanks to all the Greece bailout talk of euro zone leaders late last week, risk appetite was able to make its way back into the market, causing the major currencies to rally. I suspect this could continue up to today but all I see is another opportunity to buy the dollar at a cheaper price. We all know that Greece isn’t euro zone’s only problem child….

If the debt problems of other euro zone nations start taking up the spot light, we could see the dollar dominate the foreign exchange market once again. Needless to say, I’m looking for ways to buy the dollar.

Aaaaaaaaand, my pick goes to… the GBPUSD! After touching a low of 1.4799 last week, the GPBUSD is starting to make its way back to some significant Fibonacci retracement levels. I thinking of hopping in the overall trend and selling the GBPUSD right on the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, just a couple of pips below the 1.5100 handle. With stochastics indicating overbought conditions, I believe this is a pretty good technical play.

In order to give my trade some room to breathe, I have set my stop at 1.5200, above the 61.8% Fiboancci retracement level. I have placed my first profit target at 1.4800, which is just a hair higher than last week’s low. It also seems to me that a descending triangle is forming. If price breaks past those lows, who knows how far price would fall so I’m ultimately aiming for a new yearly low at 1.4500! Like I said, I wanna end this quarter on a high note and go for a high reward/risk ratio.

There are a bunch of top-tier economic reports due from the UK today, so we could see a lot of movement later today. We’ve got the Nationwide HPI, the current account balance, the final GDPreading, and the GfK consumer confidence report! Should be exciting!

After sliding down by 1.0% in February, house prices are expected to post a 0.2% uptick for March. The current account deficit is expected to narrow slightly from £4.7 billion to €4.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2009. Stronger than expected figures could allow the pound to climb all the way up to my entry point at 1.5090. Meanwhile, no revisions are expected for the 0.3% GDP growth reported for the final quarter of last year, so this may not have too much of an effect on the market.

Lastly, the GfK report is expected to show that consumers remained pessimistic about economic conditions this month. What I’m hoping for is that the earlier reports allow me to get triggered, then when the Gfk report comes in, risk appetite dies down a bit, helping out my trade in the process!

Again, here’s my plan:

Short GBPUSD at 1.5090, stop loss at 1.5200, target profit 1 at 1.4800, target profit 2 at 1.4500

I really do love Sunday and Mondays – because thats when all my favorite TV shows come out! Lately, I’ve been hooked on this new TV show called “How To Make It In America.” I can soooo relate to Ben and Cam! Did you watch last night’s show? I can’t believe… haha just kidding! No teasers from me!

Maybe I should start my own TV show and call it, “How To Make It In The Forex World.” I always wanted to be a TV star. But everyone has to start somewhere right? I suppose I should be a blogging superstar first. So make sure you check out my blog at MeetPips.com!

Anyway that’s all for now – good luck everyone! Feel free to comment down below – any advice would be appreciated!

  • engin

    dont hurry…if its break above 1,5070 then there is a potential move up to 1.52 your short term stochastic can show overbought but long term stochastic showing move up.
    my advice to you
    1:dont be sure never about market

  • engin

    dont hurry…if its break above 1,5070 then there is a potential move up to 1.52 your short term stochastic can show overbought but long term stochastic showing move up.
    my advice to you
    1:dont be sure never about market

  • Thatskewl2

    I took this play as well……GL….I think it’s a nice called.

  • flatron85

    as a trading idea it’s spot on, I opened one at 1.509 hoping for a quick downward trend but it took hours! closed out at break even only for the currency pair to drop soon after!

    i’m learning ;)

  • pipsprof.

    Good set up,keep it up!!!

  • Thatskewl2

    I took this play as well……GL….I think it’s a nice called.

  • flatron85

    as a trading idea it’s spot on, I opened one at 1.509 hoping for a quick downward trend but it took hours! closed out at break even only for the currency pair to drop soon after!

    i’m learning ;)

  • pipsprof.

    Good set up,keep it up!!!

  • CianQ

    Unlucky. Didn’t see it getting up to 1.52 myself either but it just about squeezed over the line.

  • CianQ

    Unlucky. Didn’t see it getting up to 1.52 myself either but it just about squeezed over the line.