Open Orders Closed: 2010-06-14 22:55
Aww man! So much for waiting for a breakdown on that bearish flag… It broke to the upside instead! Towards the end of the week, when the EURUSD pair kept climbing, I kept thinking that I shouldn’t have adjusted my short entry from 1.2100 to 1.1865. But when the pair gapped up during the weekend and went on to climb higher, I realized that I probably would’ve gotten stopped out if I kept my original entry.
It does look like this pair could keep climbing higher. I mean, not even another sovereign debt downgrade to Greece was able to halt the EURUSD rally yesterday! Or maybe that’ll just give me an opportunity to short it at a better price, hmm…
So once again, I’m left with no trade! It’s been awhile since I’ve been triggered. Hopefully, I spot some nice entries this week!
Trade Adjustment: 2010-06-08 23:38
Oh no! I took a look at Big Pippin’s chart art today and it does look like a bearish flag is forming on the EURUSD! I don’t want to miss this move, so I’m going to make an adjustment to my trade!
I read up a little bit on bearish flags, and I found out it is a bearish pattern. I’m looking to short on the break of the recent low, with my order set at 1.1865. Now, I’m going to do something a little differently with this trade if I get triggered. Once my order gets filled, I’m going to set an automatic trailing stop of 170 pips. This is equal to the daily average true range.
I’m pretty confident its going to keep falling, so I don’t have any particular take profit point in mind. I really think its headed for the 2005 lows near 1.1650!!!
Again, here’s my new trade plan:
Short EURUSD at 1.1865, trailing stop of 170 pips.
Trade Idea: 2010-06-07 03:52
OMG! What happened to the euro last Friday?! I went off to work in the morning, so I could only check my charts later at night and skadoodle. Then what do I see? The EURUSD just hit 1.1900! I NEED to get into this trade!
I got a clue of what happened when these two Wall Street traders walked up and ordered a couple of cappuccinos. Okay fine, I’m not sure if they were from Wall Street, but they were in suits and started talking about the euro, so I assumed they were.
Anyway one of the dudes said that what helped trigger some of the euro selling were some comments made by the French Prime Minister, who said that parity with the dollar would be a good thing for the euro! The other trader also added that there are some concerns about Hungary’s deficit issues, even though they aren’t part of the euro zone. I guess things pretty much suck for the euro right now!
In any case, I’m posting up a trade now because I just can’t believe that I missed on that move. Like I said, I NEED to get in this short euro. It just looks like everyone’s souring on the euro like Jessica Simpson’s acting skills!
Of course, I can’t just jump into this trade blindly. I’ve got to make sure that I know what’s coming out this week. I’ve read Pip Diddy’s roundup today, and I don’t think that the upcoming German factory orders and industrial production figures will give the euro too much of a boost.
What I’m focused on is the ECB‘s rate decision later this week and any accompanying statements. I really wonder what Jean Claude Trichet will have to say about the euro, especially after that comment made by the French Prime Minister!
Aside from that, there aren’t much high impact reports coming out from the US this week before Friday, when retail sales data is due. I may have to adjust my trade before this report, as I don’t want to get hit with any strong moves to end the week. While retail sales data doesn’t rock the markets like the NFP report does, it could still serve as a catalyst a major move.
Technically, it looks like the EURUSD is starting to retrace some of its losses. I don’t know how far it will go but I plan to hop in the overall downtrend once price hits 1.2100. More than being a psychologically significant number, this price level nicely coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
If I do get triggered, I will put my profit targets at former lows. Specifically, I will set my first profit target 1.1900, last week’s low, and place my second profit target at 1.1650, which was the EURUSD’s lowest level back in 2005. As for my stop, I will put it at 1.2200, just above the broken support level and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
By the way, in order to reduce risk, I will move my stop to breakeven once price falls 100 pips from my entry.
Here’s what I’m going to do:
Short EURUSD 1.2100, pt1 at 1.1900, pt2 at 1.1650, stop at 1.2200. I will risk 1% of my account.
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