Huck’s Pre-Week Market Analysis for June 17 to 21, 2013

Fundamental Picture

Last week was a pretty monumental one, not only in the forex market, but also in the stock markets! USD/JPY rose to a high of 99.30 before falling to a low of 93.79. Meanwhile, the Nikkei, which tracked the movement of USD/JPY, fell more than 6% during the week. As for EUR/USD and GBP/USD, both pairs surprisingly climbed to their highest levels in four months.

It seems that the currency exchange market was dominated by a few major market themes; namely, risk aversion and speculations on the upcoming FOMC meeting. Risk aversion, for instance, is causing equity markets to fall. In response, traders are pulling their money out of higher yielding currencies and putting them into the Japanese yen.

Now, with regards to the FOMC meeting, the focus is on the speculation that the Fed will taper off its quantitative easing program. Data have been mixed lately, meaning there is also mixed expectations on whether the Fed will tighten monetary policy by the end of 2013 or not.

I’m not sure what this week will bring, so I’m going to side with the trend until everything is clearer.

Potential Trades

USD/JPY: Bearish

USD/JPY 1-hour Chart

I think it’s pretty clear to all of us that USD/JPY is on a medium-term downtrend. It has been consistently making lower highs and lower lows. In addition, price is also below the major SMAs (100 and 200). I’m thinking of going short on this pair on a pullback to the 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels.

USD/CHF: Bearish

USD/CHF 1-hour Chart

On the hourly chart, we see that the pair is testing the 100 SMA as well as the 38.2% Fib level. Resistance just below .9250 could hold and we could soon see the pair drop back down to .9150. On the other hand, if resistance doesn’t hold, an upside break could lead to a rally well past .9300.

So those are the pairs I’m looking at for this week on top of my long EUR/USD trade. What are you eyeing?

XOXO,

Huck

Follow me on MeetPips.com
Follow me on Twitter
Like my page on Facebook

  • funtim78

    Just as you, I am looking to go short usd/jpy on a good retracement.
    However, I don’t get the point on getting long eur/usd and short usd/chf. You basically double your risk, given the correlation between eur and chf. And personnaly I do think we have seen a nice bull run on the EUR and I will look for the shorts at 1.337 / 1.338 with a target of 1.33 for now and trailing stop of 70 bips 😉

    • huck

      Oh, I don’t plan on taking both at the same time. I’m just thinking of these two possible trades to take. Maybe one of them. 🙂