HLHB Weekly Update – November 26, 2010

EUR/USD 4-hour Chart

What a bummer! I missed a really strong EUR/USD move with my HLHB system. There was a downward EMA crossover early this week, but it was an invalid signal for two reasons.

You see, according to the rules of my mechanical system, Stochastic should be between 50 and 20 while the next candle should meet the 30-pip filter. Well, those criteria weren’t met so I was left sitting on the sidelines while EUR/USD dropped like a rock.

Oh well, my HLHB rules may have hindered me from taking a good short trade this time but they have also prevented me from fakeouts and large losses before. Just gotta look at the bright side!

This whole week, the euro has fallen in popularity in a rather Lindsay Lohan kind of way. It seems that after Ireland accepted a bailout last weekend, the focus has shifted to other PIGS (no, not the cute, sheep-commanding one in Babe), more specifically, Portugal and Spain. Many believe that these two are likely to ask for a bailout as well.

Oh I just don’t understand all of this. First the euro jumped when the Irish said they wanted a loan. A simple change of language to the word “bailout” and now the euro is falling over the place? And now we have other countries to think about as well?

I hope Forex Gump writes something about it! The European sovereign debt crisis is just too confusing!

  • Pipster4lyphe

    Hey Huckle…U need to throw away this system…Every week it’s a miss trade….it’s no good! Do ur year end analysis for urself & u’ll see what I’m talking about!!!! Come with something fresh for 2011…Something that don’t miss (so often) and win trades (at least 70%) of the time!! I know u’re new…but u must know when to throw in the towel!!

  • Pipster4lyphe

    Hey Huckle…U need to throw away this system…Every week it’s a miss trade….it’s no good! Do ur year end analysis for urself & u’ll see what I’m talking about!!!! Come with something fresh for 2011…Something that don’t miss (so often) and win trades (at least 70%) of the time!! I know u’re new…but u must know when to throw in the towel!!

  • Buckscoder

    Huck,

    a missed profit is not a bummer. A system is there to prevent from losses, not to pick every weak trade. I’d be thankful that it prevented you from a bad trade, however nice it looks afterwars. Rules make consistency.

    If your system makes consistent money, which means more profit than loss long term, stick to it. If not which I can not know, search for a consistent profitable system or develop one. Not one reason to throw towels!

  • MrWynton

    I have to agree with Pipster here huck.
    It seems that you get alot of clear shots but end up not taking the trade because of that stupid indicator called stochastics.
    This is very unprofitable in the long run and Pip S. his system has been losing for the last 2 months in a row! And trust me, in these conditions, it’s gonna keep losing.
    If you ask me, you should study price action. Thats what I do and I only trade the EUR/USD.
    You’re waiting for all the indicators to line up but they all have a different calculation and most of the time a different meaning. And yes they might save you a couple times from huge losses, but thats what a stop-loss was invented for, to save you from those huge losses! I think you should at least get rid of the stochastics rule and maybe even the 30 pip filter!
    I also encourage you to stay on top of the fundamentals because the last 3 weeks I gained 800+ pips and you could have done the same.
    http://www.meetpips.com/members/mwynton

  • Buckscoder

    Huck,

    a missed profit is not a bummer. A system is there to prevent from losses, not to pick every weak trade. I’d be thankful that it prevented you from a bad trade, however nice it looks afterwars. Rules make consistency.

    If your system makes consistent money, which means more profit than loss long term, stick to it. If not which I can not know, search for a consistent profitable system or develop one. Not one reason to throw towels!

  • MrWynton

    I have to agree with Pipster here huck.
    It seems that you get alot of clear shots but end up not taking the trade because of that stupid indicator called stochastics.
    This is very unprofitable in the long run and Pip S. his system has been losing for the last 2 months in a row! And trust me, in these conditions, it’s gonna keep losing.
    If you ask me, you should study price action. Thats what I do and I only trade the EUR/USD.
    You’re waiting for all the indicators to line up but they all have a different calculation and most of the time a different meaning. And yes they might save you a couple times from huge losses, but thats what a stop-loss was invented for, to save you from those huge losses! I think you should at least get rid of the stochastics rule and maybe even the 30 pip filter!
    I also encourage you to stay on top of the fundamentals because the last 3 weeks I gained 800+ pips and you could have done the same.
    http://www.meetpips.com/members/mwynton

  • Huck

    To be honest, the HLHB system is pretty profitable, despite having missed trades. I think the filter have saved me from losses more than making me miss profits. Nevertheless, I’ll do a year-end recap next month to show ya’ll the stats. I’ll also decide then whether I will keep or scrap my system!

  • Huck

    To be honest, the HLHB system is pretty profitable, despite having missed trades. I think the filter have saved me from losses more than making me miss profits. Nevertheless, I’ll do a year-end recap next month to show ya’ll the stats. I’ll also decide then whether I will keep or scrap my system!

  • MrWynton

    Looking forward to those results!

  • MrWynton

    Looking forward to those results!

  • Anonymous

    You know what i think, your system filters havent saved you from loss but from making profit with this assumption based on reason. I will the make the assumption on my next entry

  • pipsinvestigator

    Profile member name is pips investigator.This are my Assumptions.
    1. Stochastics tend to give Ov/Os Region in a strong trending market therefore letting you miss trades
    2. Your 30 pips filter is so bad, you had to throw it away because except you are in a really strong trending market. After the market has moved like 40 pips thats when your 10/20 gives a signal, then now after adding your 30 pips filter making 70 pips you have lost then the market moved just 10 – 20 pips before reversal. So you see by checking your strategy, i see that the market may have already moved 80-100 pips before your criteria are being met.
    4. Also as 1 member said stop loss was invented to allow a low risk trade without affecting your equity.
    5. Also you have to do something more about your take profit level and have a tight stoploss with a reasonable T.P,
    So i think your MA crossover are so lagging and your stochastics isnt good for trending market. Then the last but not the least remove your pips filter OR find a new system

  • pipsinvestigator

    Tips: Try to reduce your ma value and that would help you a lot

  • Anonymous

    You know what i think, your system filters havent saved you from loss but from making profit with this assumption based on reason. I will the make the assumption on my next entry

  • pipsinvestigator

    Profile member name is pips investigator.This are my Assumptions.
    1. Stochastics tend to give Ov/Os Region in a strong trending market therefore letting you miss trades
    2. Your 30 pips filter is so bad, you had to throw it away because except you are in a really strong trending market. After the market has moved like 40 pips thats when your 10/20 gives a signal, then now after adding your 30 pips filter making 70 pips you have lost then the market moved just 10 – 20 pips before reversal. So you see by checking your strategy, i see that the market may have already moved 80-100 pips before your criteria are being met.
    4. Also as 1 member said stop loss was invented to allow a low risk trade without affecting your equity.
    5. Also you have to do something more about your take profit level and have a tight stoploss with a reasonable T.P,
    So i think your MA crossover are so lagging and your stochastics isnt good for trending market. Then the last but not the least remove your pips filter OR find a new system

  • pipsinvestigator

    Tips: Try to reduce your ma value and that would help you a lot